The Massive Trade Deadline Question Facing Marlins Post All-Star Break

Miami has plenty of tough decisions ahead, but this one might take the cake

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The Miami Marlins have raced back into the playoff hunt, to the surprise of everyone except the team. The Marlins now sit six games above .500, and just one game out of a wild card spot entering Sunday.

A significant reason for the success has been the pitching, which boasted an MLB-best 3.01 ERA in June, leading Miami to the best record in baseball last month.

The start of July hasn't been as kind to the Fish, but their June heroics have set them up for success in the remainder of the season. Regardless of whether or not this team is playoff-bound, there are many questions that must be answered that impact the 2027 season.

The biggest question is the biggest financial decision the Marlins have faced in quite a while. Should Sandy Alcantara be retained for another season?

When he signed his five-year, $56 million contract, which began in 2022, it was structured in a way to be heavy at the end of the deal. For the first three seasons, Alcantara's salary climbed $3 million each season, but never reached over $10 million until 2025. The last two seasons, he's made $17.3 million, and 2026 is the final year of the deal.

Should the Marlins Push Their Chips All the Way In For 2027?

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Thankfully, Miami has an opportunity to retain him with a club option for 2027, but it's an expensive one at $21 million. Alcantara has had a rocky career with the Fish, but he's really started to return to his mid-twenties form. The 30-year-old has dropped his season ERA to 4.00 through 19 starts this season.

A couple of years ago, this contract seemed like a massive mistake. He missed the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.36 ERA in his return last season. Although he made 31 starts, it seemed as if there wasn't a world where he'd return to his former self.

This season has changed minds in Miami, especially recently. After a season-worst 7.39 ERA in May, Alcantara was strong in June. He owned a 3.34 ERA and went 6-0 in six starts. He may have been lucky in Colorado when he gave up five runs over 5.2 innings, but he failed to allow more than three earned in any of his other starts last month.

In July, he's already gotten off to a phenomenal start. He nearly blanked the Athletics over eight strong innings on Saturday night. He allowed just one run on six hits and struck out eight over eight innings of work. He improved to 10-4 this season and has won seven consecutive starts.

As he enters his thirties, he's proving at times that he can be one of the best pitchers on the staff. The problem is, he may be too expensive to retain. The Marlins haven't spent $20 million in a singular season on a player since Wei-Yin Chen in 2019, which was a complete disaster.

President of Baseball Opersations Peter Bendix Should Elect to Keep Alcantara

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The good news is that the Marlins have a different president of baseball operations and general manager who won't remember the sting quite as vividly. Much of this decision will depend on the impending bargaining agreement set to change this offseason.

If Alcantara continues to pitch well, there's no reason not to retain him, and the Marlins' brass should have the money to do so. Miami is spending just over $80 million this season on payroll, which is a large step up from the $67 million last season, but far from the norm. The Marlins spent $97+ million in 2023 and 24, so a little splurging should be nothing, especially if Miami can be a contender.

The final verdict is yet to be decided, but the post-All-Star break is very important for the impact of the 2027 pitching staff. For a pitcher who was almost traded over the offseason, Alcantara certainly made his case to stay put.