Orioles Starter Shane Baz Must Fight Off Fatigue From No Run Support In Playoff Push

Shane Baz has done a tremendous job in the grin and bear it department.

The Orioles big offseason trade target, who also got a rare contract extension, suffered through a difficult first six weeks in Baltimore before settling in. Unfortunately for him, Baz, who starts Wednesday afternoon’s series finale in Minnesota, also has been the biggest victim of an unraveling lineup at the very point in early June in which he started to surge.

Baz, riding his knuckle curve as we thought he might and sprinkling in a little bit more of a changeup and two-seamer, went from plowhorse to much more than an innings eater once he stayed out of the middle of the plate and dialed back the four-seam usage. And he’s been getting some of the worst run support in MLB since, which makes it hard to fancy the O’s today in a big game with the Twins with them 6-17 in Baz's starts.

A bad offense in general is simply atrocious when Baz is on the mound. And aside from occasionally stating the obvious “it’d be nice if we could score first,” he’s uttered a time or two, Baz has done nothing to take the listless bats to task; he's worn these losses with aplomb despite not being the cause of them for weeks now.

The one area where the mental drain of never pitching with a lead might be manifesting itself is in the field. Baz is athletic enough but never looked the part of a strong fielding pitcher. Orioles player development is a sham and they play atrocious fundamental baseball in general, but his decisions and timing and focus fielding his position has definitely plummeted as the hard luck losses have mounted.

Can He Still Finish Strong?

Baz is the Orioles most consistent starter right now. Kyle Bradish has been oscillating coming off two seasons in which he failed to post 40 innings pitched due to the awkward timing of his Tommy John surgery, and Trevor Rogers is always on the precipice of another bout of lost confidence. It would be natural if mental fatigue did set in for Baz when you consider the following:

Baz has eight starts this season when he went at least six innings and received three runs of fewer of support. In those outings he is 0-8, despite a 3.04 ERA over 53 1/3 IP. He also has pitched six innings or more and received just two runs of support on seven occasions, all losses. Last time out he went all eight innings against the Rangers, gave up two runs, three hits, struck out nine and lost again.

In his last 15 starts (91 IP) Baz has a 2.93 ERA, yet the Orioles have won just four of those ballgames. He has allowed just five homers and 26 extra-base hits in that span (he recently went 43 1/3 between home runs). In his first eight starts here (44 1/3 IP), Baz allowed five homers and 25 XBH. He’s staying away from the middle of the plate and he has gone from throwing his fastball 44% of the time last year to 34% this year. Being more judicious with the fastball has allowed it to play better; the league slugged nearly .600 off it through May but is now slugging just .392 off it for the season.

The next step for Baz will be to use his arm to induce more swing-and-miss. He has a strapping frame, he has good stuff, but is in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in whiff rate and many of his bigger strikeout nights are on called strikes. If he’s able to get a few more outs for himself (just 120 Ks in 136 innings), then the issues with the glove (including his own), might not be as prevalent.

Because as you might have guessed, only three AL pitchers have been on the mound while more unearned runs were scored against him team than Baz (10) – Griffin Jax (Tampa), Will Warren (New York) and Joe Ryan (Twins) all have 12. And the Orioles are runaway leaders in most unearned runs allowed in MLB.

Of course, even more Ks won’t help him when the Orioles are at the plate. And they swing and miss enough for both teams.

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