Padres Will ‘Probably’ Trade Dylan Cease to AL Powerhouse, Says Former GM

The San Diego Padres will 'probably' trade Dylan Cease to the Houston Astros, according to former MLB general manager and current writer for The Athletic, Jim Bowden.

Cease has been surrounded in trade rumors seemingly since spring training as Bowden linked the right-hander to an imminent deal to the American League contenders.

The Astros emerged as a top landing spot for Cease on Tuesday.

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Dylan Cease to the Astros will probably happen, says @JimBowdenGM. 👀 pic.twitter.com/SBtAfVaGGL
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) July 30, 2025

Bowden brought up the parallels between Cease and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi's games when the Astros acquired him last season.

Kikuchi had a 4.75 ERA with a 4.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Toronto before being dealt to Houston. Cease currently has a 4.79 ERA with an MLB-leading 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Cease's ERA is currently the highest it has been since his first season in the big leagues, but the right-hander has immense value to offer any contender looking for a starter.

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The 29-year-old from Milton, GA has one of the best swing-and-miss rates in the majors, getting batters to whiff 33.8 percent of the time, putting him in the 94th percentile across MLB.

Cease also has among the highest fastball velocities in baseball, tossing an average heater speed of 97.1 mph, good for the 88th percentile in baseball. Although evident in his high strikeout per nine innings mark, Cease is in the 90th percentile in strikeout rate, doing so 29.9 percent of the time.

When batters get a hold of Cease's offerings, however, it is usually quality contact. The right-hander has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 89.4 percent, right at league average, but his offerings are barreled 10.7 percent of the time, good for just the 15th percentile.

Cease's slider isn't just his most-used pitch in the arsenal, but generates the most whiffs, doing so 41.8 percent of the time. His batting average against this offering is .223, although advanced stats place the expected batting average on this pitch at just .199.

The value that Cease presents is obvious, but if a contending team like the Astros can offer the right deal, perhaps the return can make enough sense for the Padres to pull the trigger.

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