SI:AM | Near-Homers Loom Large as Three Teams Punch Their LCS Tickets

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m glad the Guardians won yesterday so we’ll at least get one baseball game today.

In today’s SI:AM:
👋 Yankees sent packing
😞 Another disappointing Padres season
😅 Guardians survive in Game 3

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Homers that were, weren’t and might have been

There’s a saying in every sport that it’s “a game of inches.” It’s an overused cliché, but it’s true. Just look at last night’s MLB playoff action.

Three teams—the Dodgers, Rays and Brewers—won last night to clinch a spot in the League Championship Series. And two of those games hinged on plays at the wall where just a few inches may have changed the outcomes.

We’ll start in the Bronx, where the Rays beat the Yankees, 4–3, to sweep the series and advance to the ALCS for the third time in franchise history. It might have been a different story if a pair of plays had gone differently.

Tampa Bay’s second run of the game came on a solo homer by Ryan Vilade in the fourth inning that would not have gone over the fence in any other ballpark. Vilade poked a fly ball to the opposite field that had just enough juice to reach the short porch in right field. Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones nearly robbed it, but the ball just escaped his reach.

The more dramatic play came in the bottom of the sixth, when Anthony Volpe lifted a ball out to left that landed in the stands and was initially ruled a game-tying two-run home run. But a replay review showed that a fan had extended his arms into the field of play and interfered. The umpires ruled that Rays left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. would not have caught the ball and placed Volpe on second base. George Lombard Jr., the runner on first base, was allowed to score. Neither team scored again for the rest of the game.

The Volpe play was an odd one, but the umpires handled it correctly. One replay angle appeared to show the ball clearing the fence before it hit the fan, but a subsequent angle showed that the ball was clearly going to hit the wall. The crew chief review gives the umpires broad latitude to rectify the situation, so while Lombard started the play on first base, the umpires ruled that he was in a position at the moment of the interference where he would have scored. Even Rays manager Kevin Cash said after the game that he thought the umps made the right call.

The game-changing play at the wall in San Diego was more straightforward—and even more dramatic.

The Brewers held a 3–1 lead with one out in the bottom of the eighth. Fernando Tatis Jr. was on first base after working a leadoff walk, and Manny Machado was at the plate. Machado scorched a ball to deep center field that sent the home crowd to its feet, but the Brewers’ Garrett Mitchell tracked it down and brought it back from over the wall. He made it look easy.

NO WAY. NOT ON MITCHELL'S WATCH. pic.twitter.com/bggFCfkvyC
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 8, 2026

“It kind of just happened,” Mitchell said of his play. “Instinctually, just do what I do. Make a good jump and see what happens.”

It was a great play, and made even more impressive by the context. But that spot in the outfield is also a relatively easy one for a home run robbery. The fence at Petco Park dips from eight feet tall in dead center to seven feet in right-center before climbing to 10 feet in right. Machado hit the ball to the narrow part of the outfield where the fence is only seven feet high, so Mitchell (who’s 6'2") didn’t have to jump to secure the catch.

Machado knows better than anybody how that particular part of the park is prone to home run robberies. In the 2017 World Baseball Classic, Machado, playing for the Dominican Republic, hit a ball to almost the exact same spot as he did last night. Team USA center fielder Adam Jones ranged over and made a spectacular catch to prevent a homer.

Mitchell’s catch played a huge role in helping the Brewers close out the game and the series. The Dodgers took care of the Braves earlier in the night to set up an NLCS rematch with Milwaukee. The Rays, meanwhile, are still waiting to see who their ALCS opponent will be after the Guardians won comfortably over the White Sox to avoid elimination. Game 4 of that series is tonight at 8 p.m. ET.

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The top five…

Michael Harris II scores on a pitch in the dirt — Michael Harris II didn’t hesitate when he saw a pitch in the dirt. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

… plays in baseball yesterday:
5. The Yankees’ unorthodox 6-5-3 double play.
4. Michael Harris II’s heads-up baserunning to score on a pitch in the dirt.
3. Victor Mesa Jr.’s stone-cold reaction to hitting a go-ahead homer for the Rays.
2. An excellent play by José Ramírez to save at least one run.
1. This photo of Garrett Mitchell’s pivotal home run robbery.

📺 What we’re watching today …

NFL

Buccaneers at Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime
Winless Tampa Bay is going against a Dallas team that has averaged 34 points over its last three games.

MLB

Guardians at White Sox, 8 p.m. ET, TBS
Chicago has another chance to clinch its first playoff series at home since 1906.

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