Red Sox All-Star Has '90 Percent' Chance of Being Traded This Summer

There may not be a team with a more complicated decision to make this summer ahead of the 2026 Major League Baseball trade deadline than the Boston Red Sox.

In most years, the decision would already be made. The Red Sox are eight games under .500 on July 7. In a typical year, that would likely already mean that Boston would be out of the playoff race and hurdling towards a deadline fire sale. But the 2026 season hasn't been a typical year. The Red Sox are 40-48 on the season and yet they are just four games out of a playoff spot with 74 games left to play.

They actually aren't out of it yet, despite being eight games below .500. Things would be different if the Red Sox were in the National League. The Miami Marlins have the No. 3 National League Wild Card spot at 49-42. The Red Sox would be 7 1/2 games back right now if they were in the National League.

That's why things are complicated for Boston. Do you forget the record and simply try to make a run because you're just four games back and the American League is weak? Or, do you look at the record and sell off pieces because they are still eight games below .500? Recently, the buzz around the team has shifted a bit. Boston is expected to be patient and wait right up until the trade deadline to make that call. The Red Sox are also "open-minded" about what they could trade away in a search for offense. It's certainly going to be interesting to see how the club handles veterans, like Aroldis Chapman, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock and Jarren Duran, among others.

When it comes to Chapman, despite Boston's recent hot streak, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel still set the odds of the reliever being traded to 90 percent, which is higher than any other member of the club.

What Should Boston Do With Aroldis Chapman?

Jul 3, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) celebrates the victory against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"No. 10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Boston Red Sox," Passan and McDaniel wrote. "Chance of being traded: 90 percent. Rest-of-season impact: High. Years of control: Probably just 2026, with a vesting/mutual option for 2027. The buzz: Relief pitchers often are some of the most impactful deadline acquisitions, and Boston's closer is as effective as ever. ... Everyone needs a good reliever. Teams will climb over each other for Chapman."

Gray landed on the list with a 25 percent chance of being moved and Contreras was given a 40 percent chance of being moved.

When it comes to Chapman, it's not hard to see the draw. He has a 2.36 ERA in 28 outings and has been great overall this season for Boston while earning his ninth career All-Star nod. While this is the case, Chapman has a vesting option in his deal that will be confirmed when he reaches 40 innings pitched this season and if he passes an end-of-season physical. For the Red Sox, if they're planning on trying to contend next season, it obviously wouldn't hurt to keep the lefty.

The Red Sox's performance between now and Aug. 3 is going to dictate what they have ahead of the trade deadline. If the Red Sox continue to win, like they have over the last two weeks, then all of the conversations will come to an end about selling. If there is anyone on the roster right now that could be traded, it's surely Chapman. But hopefully, that doesn't happen.

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