Yankees Have Advantage in Cody Bellinger Sweepstakes

Cody Bellinger returning to the New York Yankees seemed like a slam dunk. He fit in as well as any player could as Juan Soto's rebound after their once-in-a-generation talent split for the Mets.

It is January now, and what seemed like something that would get done fast has turned into one of those slow-burning Scott Boras negotiations. Both team and player know what they want, and neither is budging.

According to NJ.com's Bob Klapisch, though, the Yankees should not fret. The longer this drags on, the better it is for them.

"I think the odds have improved slightly because the market that Boras envisioned for Bellinger has not materialized," Klapisch writes for NJ.com. "Every day that goes by, the Yankees' chances improve. That said, there is still a very, very wide gap. I think the Yankees' position is if Bellinger can find someone to pay him seven years at $37-or-$38 million a year, let him take it. But he's got to find it, and so far that gold mine does not exist."

The Yankees recently sent their second offer to Bellinger. If something better were out there, Bellinger might have already taken it. The robust market reported may have been oversold, and Klapisch could be on to something. It's all a waiting game.

The Types of Boras Waiting Games

The Boras negotiations tend to drag on if they hit a snag. What the Yankees are dealing with in their pursuit of Bellinger is not unique.

If Boras does not like what he sees, he will haul things out as far as possible. Bryce Harper did not get his deal with the Phillies until the end of February. Manny Machado's deal with the Padres was finalized a few weeks before Harper's.

The most egregious instance of this, though, is Dallas Keuchel's free agency. Keuchel signed a prorated $13 million deal wth the Braves in June of 2019, because he could not find a proper suitor the previous winter. Boras and Co. waited until after the draft, so a pick was no longer attached to their client. Being a former World Champion and Cy Young Award winner was irrelevant to teams.

Of course, Harper and Machado are different cases from Keuchel. Those guys did not sign until late because of the years and dollars that were supposed to be tied to them. Teams did not have any faith that Keuchel would live up to whatever deal he took. In the day and age of advanced metrics, it does not take teams or even fans long to see when a player's best days are behind them.

How do Teams View Bellinger

As far as Bellinger is concerned, it would be interesting to get into the minds of teams like the Mets or Yankees, who discuss him in their war rooms. Do their conversations make him seem more like that Harper type of client? The type that has everything going for him as a player, and the years make them uncomfortable?

Or is Bellinger the Keuchel type? Keuchel's stuff took a hit from 2017 to 2018. In 2017, his 6 Breaking Run Value and 5 Offspeed Run Value were in the 82nd and 92nd percentiles in baseball, according to Baseball Savant. In 2018, Keuchel had a -6 Breaking Run Value and -1 Offspeed Run Value. That put him in the 6th and 34th percentile that year. Bellinger's peripherals are not so different on the hitting end of things.

Bellinger was at or well below the 50th percentile in baseball in xw0BA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, and Hard Hit Rate. His 70.1 MPH Bat Speed was also in the 20th percentile. Teams most likely look harder into a player than simple Baseball Savant research, but what does all of this look like for a player at the age of 30 in a few years?

If one had to guess whether Bellinger is closer to Keuchel or Harper, the answer is that he is probably somewhere in the middle. Teams will not wait until the summer to sign Bellinger, and not having a pick attached is a big reason why, but it seems he does actually have suitors.

If this were 1996 and being a brand-name mattered, Bellinger probably would have gotten his money and years by now. Here is this former MVP who showed out in his first year in the Bronx. Those underlying metrics would not even be in the conversation.

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