Klay Thompson's best and worst case scenarios this season

Can the former Warriors champion still contribute?

Jun 20, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson watches the game between the Dallas Wings and the Chicago Sky during the first half at College Park Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For many the biggest question mark coming into the offseason for the Miami Heat was if there would be enough shooting on the team. This potential problem got further exacerbated when Miami made the trade to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo and then were not able to resign All-Star Norman Powell as the offseason progressed.

The Heat realized this and went out to get one of the best shooters of all time in Klay Thompson. Thompson of course was a major factor in the Golden State Warriors dynasty and did this largely with his defense and exceptional shooting. Though Thompson is not the same player he once was, he still can make a significant impact on the team.

The Best Case Scenario for Thompson

Apr 12, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson (31) reacts against the Chicago Bulls during the first half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Thompson is coming off a season in which he shot 38% from behind the arc and he is a career 41% shooter from distance. Now on a team with Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, Thompson should be getting great open looks from three. As far as shooting goes if everything goes well then I would fully expect him to be at or over 40% from three once again.

The biggest x-factor for Thompson this season is if he will be able to reclaim some of his defensive prowess. Though it would be unrealistic to expect Thompson to return to being a lockdown defender, it is reasonable to wonder if he can improve off of last season. Playing defense with the backing of Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins should give Thompson the ability to be a good team defender. If he can use his support to propel his individual defense in specific situations then that will be a home run for Miami.

Worst Case Scenario for Thompson

Mar 27, 2026; Portland, Oregon, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson (31) looks on during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Obviously, the worst case scenario for any player is a catastrophic injury. Not including injury, the worst case scenario for Thompson would be he declines to a modest 36% three-point percentage but more importantly is such a defensive liability that he is unable to play in key moments.

The Heat can hide bad defenders better than almost any team in the NBA, especially now considering they are littered with great defenders. The issue though is sometimes players are so bad at that end their offense does not make up for it. The Heat have seen this, specifically in the playoffs.

If Thompson is unable to use his defensive teammates to help cover him and drops a couple percentage points, then it could spell disaster. If that does happen then it would hinder Miami’s options to add elite shooting to the lineup.