Three Ways Nuggets Can Exploit Timberwolves in Round One

Where do the Denver Nuggets hold the statistical advantages over the Minnesota Timberwolves?

Mar 1, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) fouls Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) in the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets have a talented team on their hands in their first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who present a real hurdle to make their round one matchup a bit easier said than done when it comes to putting things away quickly.

However, when digging deeper into the stats and what both teams bring to the table, there might be a few areas that Denver can take advantage of to make taking care of business a bit simpler on their part.

Whether it be areas the Timberwolves are lacking, or parts of Denver's game that match up well, it sets up for a few key ways in that the Nuggets can set up the ideal game plan and advance to round two with the right execution.

With that in mind, here are three ways in which the Nuggets can exploit the Wolves in round one, and hopefully lead to another postseason victory against their familiar playoff foe:

1. Free Throw Shooting

May 20, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder fans work to distract Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle (30) during his free throw shots in the fourth quarter during game one of the western conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Of the teams that are in this year's postseason action, the Timberwolves have shot, on average, the fifth-most free throws on the season with just over 25 shots from the line.

However, that same Minnesota roster is shooting by far the worst free throw percentage of those in the conference at 75.2%, and is one of only six teams in the postseason shooting 77% or worse from the line on the season.

Denver, on the other hand, sits much more favorably in the category, not only shooting slightly more free throws a night than Minnesota (25.8), but sits top-five in the league in terms of their efficiency from the line.

If the action becomes tight between Denver and Minnesota to the point where the margins come down to free throw shooting, it's an edge that happens to favor the Nuggets. And if this series really is set to be a close one as the general consensus expects, that leg up is a big advantage.

2. Outside Shooting

Apr 1, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) shoots the ball against the Utah Jazz during the second half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images | Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images

Another area where the Nuggets have a clear advantage: their outside shooting. The Nuggets aren't chucking shots on a nightly basis from deep like other teams in the league might be (20th in 3PA), but they're extremely efficient when doing so. Denver leads the entire NBA at three-point percentage at 39.6%.

Minnesota's pretty alright from deep as well with a 37.0% clip themselves. But again, it's another area where the Nuggets can win within the margins, and take advantage in the games that might come down to a shootout.

Especially when Denver's inconsistent defense will make it tough to get consistent stops on Minnesota, firing on all cylinders offensively will be pivotal for the Nuggets' extended success.

3. Take Away Transition Opportunities

Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach David Adelman against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Timberwolves are one of the most effective teams in the league when it comes to transition offense.

They sit sixth among teams in the postseason in overall frequency of transition opportunities (19.0), and shoot nearly 60% on shots taken in transition. So, they aren't running teams out of the gym, but when they do have those chances on the fastbreak, they excel at them.

If Denver can keep control of the pace against such an offense like Minnesota, it limits their potency on the offensive end in a major way. In the event Denver is connecting on their shots from deep, and are keyed in on transition defense when they don't, that'll be a huge lift in uprooting the scoring attack that's made the Timberwolves successful this season.

Sign up for our free Denver Nuggets On SI newsletter, and get breaking Nuggets news delivered to your inbox daily!