Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints Week 7: Who wins and why

Predicting the winner of Sunday's game at Soldier Field through a comparison of positional group matchups as Ben Johnson's Bears try to win for the fourth straight time.
Gene Chamberlain|
Taysom Hill had a big role as a QB and runner in the last win over the Bears but this Saints staff has reduced his role.
Taysom Hill had a big role as a QB and runner in the last win over the Bears but this Saints staff has reduced his role. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Bears coach Ben Johnson maintained his singular focus and only hopes his team does the same against the New Orleans Saints, who showed drastic improvement in their last two games.

After a rare win straight up as road underdogs, The Bears come into this game 4 1/2-point favorites.

“I didn't know that we were favorites," Johnson said. "I don't really pay a ton of attention to that type of stuff unless it gets shown to me. It wasn't this week. That's what happens when you win three in a row.

"All I know that is we have yet to play our best football and what we're capable of doing. When you turn on that tape from last week, there's a number of things that we need to clean up."

The way they played pass defense at times would be one. The pass rush always needs to be better. They need to prevent backsliding against the run.

Then there is the run game they finally got going last week. The consistency needs to be there if they're going to depend on this later in the season, and that's the plan.

"I do think we're getting better in certain aspects, but we're still in a race there to get as good as we can be before December," Johnson said. "Like I said, we're going to be playing our best ball in December and January so we're still working our way to get there.

"We've had some ups and some downs as we've gone, but that's the mission. That's all we have in sight is finding a way to improve this week from what we did last week.”

At least he hopes it's all they have in sight after a big win. It's the kind of win that can turn heads throughout the league.

Unfortunately for the Bears, it also was the kind that can turn their heads as well.

It's the Bears and the Saints Sunday on the lakefront at noon, here's who wins and why.

The Draftkings line: Bears by 4 1/2, over/under 45 1/2

Bear running vs. Saints run defense

The problem doesn't appear to be D'Andre Swift's groin injury preventing him from playing. Instead, with any type of soft tissue problem it's how long he'll play without aggravating it. Kyle Monangai needs to be ready to take over in an attack that found yardage wide last week but may need to be patient against a team ranked seventh in yards allowed per run (3.8). The Saints' linebackers are particularly effective coming downhill into the gaps making plays against the run in a Brandon Staley defense. The Saints defensive coordinator is a Vic Fangio disciple so it's 3-4 on running downs and four-man rush on passing downs. They're stout on running downs but the times they've been gashed it's by teams going around right end (7.84 yards a run), which is exactly where the Bears found their most consistent yardage last week. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Saints pass defense

Only four teams have given up more touchdown passes (14) than the Saints and they've been especially burned by tight ends in the red zone. Caleb Williams has the capability to exploit this, although the tight ends haven't shown up yet much. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are going against cornerbacks who have struggled to prevent big gains, and the Bears rank eighth in third-down conversions. There is opportunity for the Bears should they effectively block edges Chase Young, Carl Granderson and Cam Jordan. The Saints rank 25th in net yards allowed per pass, but 16th overall on pass defense. Their loss last week to New England took on the same pattern as their first two games, falling behind by more than a TD in the fourth quarter only to score late and make the game look closer than it was. The Saints' worse problem has been tackling. Edge to Bears

Saints running vs. Bears run defense

Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and the Saints backs are at 3.9 yards per carry, so it's been tough sledding. Their biggest threat for a run of more than 10 yards has been Spencer Rattler scrambling, which is an outgrowth of the passing game. The Bears run defense looked dramatically improved against Washington, the best test any team can have on the ground at the moment with the possible exception of Baltimore. Getting back T.J. Edwards and Kyler Gordon helped dramatically in this regard, and a few other changes up front in personnel usage helped, as well. No Edge

Saints passing vs. Bears pass defense

Spencer Rattler has been very accurate, almost at the 70% figure Ben Johnson wanted to see from Williams, but his throws rarely go downfield far. He did improve at this in the last two games. The Saints have the receivers to challenge the Bears secondary, particularly Chris Olave, but their pass blocking has been shaky on the edge, so they haven't had time to explore this. Olave isn't even averaging 9 yards a catch. The Bears are tied for first in takeaways. Their secondary is third in third-down conversion rate (30.6%) and has Gordon back as the extra defender. The Saints are 22nd at converting third downs. Edge to Bears

Special teams

Using a backup kicker again is an invitation for disaster but the Bears could only complain once about the results last week. Saints kicker Blake Grupe has already had five missed field goals, one of them shorter than 40 yards and two more shorter than 50. Despite punting indoors, Saints punter Kal Kroeger averages 2.2 yards less per punt than the Bears' Tory Taylor, who also has a better percentage inside the 20. New Orleans has a tremendous explosive threat on punt returns in Rashid Shaheed, who averages 14 yards per eight returns. However, on kick returns they're at 23.8 yards for three returners, including former Bear Velus Jones Jr. Edge to Bears

Coaching

Ben Johnson's game plans have worked well but his one attempt on a short week was a disaster. The Dennis Allen impact in this game could be huge as he has good knowledge of all the Saints defensive players and can help in the game plan for offense as well direct the defense. Kellen Moore's offense has had difficulty getting into gear and on the road in two games they had 13 and 19 points. Edge to Bears

Intangibles

This is the first game for the Saints on grass. They already didn't handle their two outdoor experiences well, losing badly at Buffalo and at Seattle. It's possible they'll be playing in rain and in temperatures in the high 50s, sort of like the Bears experienced last week. Working against the Bears is their short work week and a possible letdown after a big win. Johnson didn't like how they responded to the last short work week, but being at home for the short work week does provide a little more support than going on the road for one. Bottom line is it's two new coaching staffs against each other with the Bears at home. It can be four straight wins for the Bears. Winning can become a habit. No Edge

Prediction: Bears 27, Saints 20

If the Bears avoid the myriad presnap penalties they had earlier this season in much the way they did on Monday night, they have the capability of turning this into a game much like the easy win over Dallas. If not, it's going to be a war.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.


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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.