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Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and New York Jets: Who Wins and Why for Week 4

A comparison of the positional group matchups between the 2-1 Bears and the 1-2 Jets, with betting trends and a prediction on the final score.
Gene Chamberlain|
Cole Kmet catches a short pass and heads upfield against the New York Jets in the last Bears matchup between the teams.
Cole Kmet catches a short pass and heads upfield against the New York Jets in the last Bears matchup between the teams. | USA TODAY Sports

In this story:

Chicago Bears

So many sports phrases are tiresome cliches, usually entirely invalid or even silly.

One of the most overused one every year on an NFL schedule is the "trap game." Ooooh, ohhh, look out, it's a trap game.

If the Bears had a trap game on this schedule, it would be the one at noon Sunday at Soldier Field.

A week after a huge win over the Philadelphia Eagles, no Caleb Williams, a short work week, and it's a game sandwiched between the Eagles game and the one against their biggest rivals. Sure, the Packers have had some difficulties in their first three games but are still only one game behind the Bears in the NFC North and fortunes change rapidly and drastically in this league.

So the team looking past the New York Jets is an entirely valid concern for Bears fans. After all, the Jets might be improved but they are still 1-2 and two losses came against NFC North teams. The one win they do have is over the lowly Tennessee Titans.

League statistics say they're considerably improved, ranking 13th on offense and second on defense.

Fortunately for the Bears, they have one ace in the hole preventing them from falling into this trap. It's the same one they can usually thank for keeping them on the straight and narrow. It's their coach, Ben Johnson.

If facing a team coached by the defensive coordinator he worked with in Detroit isn't enough to get Johnson to properly prepare and motivate a team to a 3-1 record on Sunday, then everyone may have misjudged Johnson's leadership ability. Consider also that the Bears have yet to Bear Johnson's former team, so at least beating his former colleague is a step in the right direction.

It's the Bears and the Jets on the lakefront at noon on Sunday, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Jets run defense

The Jets like their rebuilt front but for aging Demario Davis, Harrison Phillips and others up front like T'Vondre Sweat, they haven't really faced a strong running attack to date. Detroit was the best one and gained 131 yards on them last week. Johnson hasn't been pleased with their production on the ground the last two games, even though it came together in the fourth quarter on Sunday. It should be primed and ready, although D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai would probably look more dangerous when they can also run behind the left side with Ozzy Trapilo leading the way. That could come next week. The 4.2 yards per rush the Jets have allowed is deceptive while there is nothing fluky about the Bears' league-leading 5.3 yards per carry. Look for some big holes against Jets defensive gambles and breakaway runs. Edge to Bears

Bears passing vs. Jets pass defense

The quarterback mystery could continue to kickoff but Johnson really has to start Tyson Bagent. They have a depth chart for a reason. You don't replace the starter with the backup just because the backup had a strong game in the starter's absence. So why should you replace the second-stringer with the third-stringer just because the third-stringer had a big game. The Lions play a style of defense easier for a more mobile quarterback to exploit and Johnson loves moving around the pocket with boots and rollouts that Bagent can execute. The young New York defensive ends look impressive but they could be occupied trying to contain a more mobile QB and attack structure. The Jets rank third against the pass and their cornerbacks look solid but it's Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift who pose real threats to them at the outset and eventually the wideouts later on deeper balls. Edge to Bears

Jets running vs. Bears run defense

Normally the Jets could rate a solid chance to gain an advantage here with Breece Hall but he's injured and out, and they've had only 61 yards on 19 carries from backup Braelon Allen. The Bears on defense Monday came away happy about their improvement against the run in the second half but in the first half they were less than mediocre and leaked all over against Saquon Barkley. The Jets will have no Saquon Barkley on Sunday. Edge to Bears

Jets passing vs. Bears pass defense

Geno Smith is on a roll, with a 110.0 passer rating despite taking nine sacks already. While with the Raiders, he came into last year's game against the Bears with two 100-plus passer ratings in three games and in Week 4 Dennis Allen's scheme had him totally guessing. The Raiders nearly won because of their running game. Smith, meanwhile, threw three interceptions. Smith does have a few targets who could challenge what's been an up-and-down Bears secondary, like Garrett Wilson and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. New York's best chance comes if the Bears' rush reverts to the way they played against Carolina rather than how they played against the Eagles in the second half and Vikings the entire game. No Edge

Special teams

The Bears made adjustments in their blocking scheme on field goals to get more veterans involved and solve their issues with blocks and near blocks on field goals. The return teams look poised to break a long one after coming close a few times. The Jets are a solid overall special teams bunch with an explosive return man in Isaiah Williams. The kickers are fairly evenly matched but Bears punter Tory Taylor is hitting the ball the best he has in three seasons, averaging 50.3 an effort with 43.3 net. He has three inside the 20 and it would be 4 if not for Sam Roush. No Edge

Coaching

The Jets made a solid choice in bringing in Frank Reich to run the offense. He was always better in an offensive coordinator capacity than as a head coach. Aaron Glenn is a strong defensive mind but it's easy to wonder if they lack the overall coaching leadership like the Bears get from Ben Johnson, besides the offensive support he adds. Until this year, Glenn has never had a defense finish higher than 19th in yards allowed in five years and only once was better than 23rd in points allowed. They've given him some better pieces but he's still lacking in numbers. Johnson has been given a blueprint for beating the Jets by his former boss. He just need sto follow the plan. Edge to Bears

Intangibles

That trap game effect is real, although muted by Johnson's ambition and probably his desire not to lose to another coach he worked with in Detroit. What Johnson can't account for is the extra rest the Bears lose. Not only do they start out behind because they played on a Monday, but because it was at night and they had Tuesday off without an actual Wednesday practice, they're going to come in a bit cold. Toss in the changing QB situation and it wouldn't be a surprise if they're somewhat sluggish to start out. Think about it like a Thursday night game. The Jets might own a small advantage here but they are also a terrible road team with a 2-8 record under Glenn on the road. Edge to Jets

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 3 1/2 (over/under 43 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 30, Jets 20

Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 1-2 (1-2 over/under)

Key to Bears win: Disrupting the timing of Geno Smith by moving him with the interior rush and/or edge. Blitzing, unless schemed with disguises, can't really work but without his running back the Jets veteran could look a bit lost at times. Count on Colston Loveland making a big receiving impact in this one.

Bears and Jets betting trends

  • The Bears are 7-0 against the spread when they've had 350 yards or more of offense in their previous game
  • It's been over the total in five of the last six Jets games as underdogs
  • The Bears are 2-1 ATS this season
  • The Jets are 2-0-1 ATS this season
  • The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five
  • It's been under the total for both teams in two of their three games
  • The Bears are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 at home
  • It's been under in four of the last five Bears games as favorites
  • The Jets are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 games as a road underdog
  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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