AFC Playoff Picture: Bengals Get Bye-Week Boost

A few games fell Cincinnati's way while the team rested up during Week 10.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Nov 14, 2022 9:13 AM EST

CINCINNATI — The Bengals gained a bit of ground in the AFC playoff race this week, despite staying in the 10 seed. Of the four wild card contenders that played on Sunday, three of them lost to tighten the pack even more.

The 10-seeded Colts beat the Raiders, but other than that Buffalo (6-3), Los Angeles (5-4), and Cleveland (3-6) all dropped games.

The latter's season is likely over after losing to Miami. According to ESPN's FPI, Cleveland is down to just a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs and still play at Buffalo and home against the Buccaneers before Deshaun Watson returns.

All in all, Cincinnati now sits with a 62% FPI chance to make the playoffs, slotting in as the last AFC Wild Card team ahead of LA (50.4%), and New England (20.4%). The Dolphins (five seed), Jets (six seed), and Bills (four seed) are currently the three Wild Card contenders with better playoff chances than Cincinnati.

One of the Dolphins or Bills will bow out of that race as AFC East champions when the regular season ends.

A repeat AFC North title is highly unlikely due to Baltimore's 2-0 division record (Bengals 0-3) and cupcake schedule (the only winning team left is Cincinnati). Lamar Jackson is 22-3 in his career against losing teams.

The 49ers' win over the Chargers and the Bills' loss to the Vikings were positive swings for the Bengals despite being cross-conference matchups.

Cincinnati cannot afford to have many overall record ties with other Wild Card teams, given the Bengals' rough 2-3 conference mark.

They can change that record in a hurry—seven of the team's final eight games are against AFC opponents.

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