Bengal Bets: Top Wagers For Round Two Against Pittsburgh

CINCINNATI — The bye week break is behind us as Cincinnati prepares for the NFL's toughest gauntlet in the back half of the season. The Bengals went into the break strong, but our bets did not.

The 42-21 win over Carolina produced the first 0-3 week of the season as Joe Mixon smashed his rushing total, Burrow didn't play enough to hit 261 passing yards, and Carolina got blown out to miss the cover.

Time to flush it and move onto Pittsburgh as the Bengals try to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card Race and notch their first division win this season.

Season Record: 15-12 (+0.31 units)

Steelers +5.5 (-138 SI Sportsbook)

Most of the league got to beat up on the injured Steelers over the past 10 weeks.

Cincinnati is not so lucky.

Pittsburgh is even healthier than they were in Week 1, and that nasty defense gets the biggest health boost. Pittsburgh is a completely different team with T.J. Watt in the fold.

With Watt: 53-24-2 W/L record, 20.4 points per game allowed, 3.4 sacks per game
Without Watt: 1-10 record, 26.2 PPG allowed, 1.1 SPG

Add in a full practice from Minkah Fitzpatrick on Thursday, plus, the return of other key starters (Damonte Kazee, Myles Jack), and the Steelers' defense is getting healthy at the right time for a cover.

Offensively, I'd be shocked if Kenny Pickett can lead three TD drives, but they should move the ball decently if he continues playing conservatively and the Steelers stick with a running back 1-2 punch that's worked well over the past three weeks (sixth in rush EPA since wk 8, 17th in success rate).

The trends with Mike Tomlin at home are overwhelming: Tomlin is 14-8 straight up and 16-3-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his career. His 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the past two decades. As a home dog vs. AFC North opponents, he is 5-0-2 ATS.

Tomlin is 21-10 ATS vs. the Bengals, his most profitable career opponent.

Jaylen Warren O24.5 Rush Yards (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Steelers rookie running back Jaylen Warren has been a big part of that increased rushing efficiency over the past three weeks. Warren boosted his snap and carry count significantly over the past few games.

Things ramped up in their 20-10 win over the Saints. Warren played a career-high 43% of the snaps against New Orleans (hit 51% against Buffalo but largely all garbage-time snaps). He turned that into nine carries for 37 yards, and three catches for 40 yards.

Warren adds a downhill element to complement Najee Harris and may only need 3-4 carries to hit this number. The only hang-up with this pick is D.J. Reader's return.

His presence is a major factor in the run game. In weeks 1-3, Cincinnati ranked 14th in rush EPA/allowed and fifth in success rate. Since his injury, the Bengals rank 26th and 27th in those metrics. Still, expecting Reader to play like the top-three defensive tackle he was to start the year in his first game back is lofty.

I see a slow game script playing out on Sunday, with neither team pulling away. Pittsburgh will want to keep Burrow off the field, and Warren will factor into that all evening.

Under 41.5 (-125 SI Sportsbook)

I'm banking on these defenses to control the game. Kenny Pickett doesn't scare any team right now. He is 23rd out of 32 qualified passers in EPA + CPOE composite. The only QBs worse than him by EPA are Baker Mayfield, Matt Stafford, Davis Mills, and Carson Wentz.

Anything more than 20 points out of this offense would be a disappointing day for Lou Anarumo's unit.

On the flip side, Cincinnati leads the NFL in team variance and offensive variance.

They are the least consistent team in the league. One week it's Super Bowl-worthy, the next fans are thinking about the draft. A lot of that hinges on two-high coverages, which Pittsburgh will play a lot of at full strength.

According to Warren Sharp, that's bad news for Cincinnati's offense: When defenses play at least 50% two-high against them, Burrow is 0-4. When defenses play less than 50% two-high against him, he’s 5-0. It's that cut and dry.

50%+ two-high: No games over 20 points, averaging 17 PPG.
Less than 50% two-high: 27-plus points in every game, averaging 32 PPG.

The Steelers played two-high 55% in Week 1, and when Watt returned last week, they played 52%. All of this screams a grinding game that Cincinnati may lose or eke out against the seventh-best DVOA rush defense in the NFL.

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