Battle of juggernauts set to take place between Bills, Lions in Week 15

The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills matchup with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups; Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections; “Why Buffalo Will Lose”, “Why Buffalo Will Win”, and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s 14th edition of this analysis for the Bills Week 15 clash with the Detroit Lions. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Bills Pass Offense vs. Lions Pass Defense

It seems as though every week Josh Allen steps onto a football field he does something no other quarterback has done in NFL history. In Week #12 that was scoring a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in the same game while more recently he became the first player in the Super Bowl era to score 3 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns in the same game. What’s been even more impressive is that over his previous three games Allen is averaging 305 yards and 4 touchdowns per game while he has turned the ball over just one time and has not been sacked. All of this took place against some pretty solid football teams in the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Los Angeles Rams making Allen’s heater all the more impressive. Moving forward the Bills are going to need more of this from Allen as if they have any hope of maintaining the two seed, or even stealing the one seed, they will likely need to win out, but doing so could prove difficult.

So just how fast did Josh Allen throw this football?

The ball traveled 45.1 Air Yards in 1.566 seconds. That means that Josh Allen threw this football ~58.91 MPH 🤯pic.twitter.com/6tRNqKvM4z
— Hänsel (@UberHansen) November 25, 2022

That difficulty will reach a peak this week as the Bills head to Michigan to take on arguably the best team in the NFL, the Detroit Lions. There is no real weakness to the Lions with their pass defense possibly being their greatest strength. They come into Week #14 ranked 1st in pass defense DVOA (-15.3%) while giving up a league low 11 passing touchdowns and generating 14 interceptions. While there are a lot of contributors who have facilitated this, none are more critical than safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Both maintain a Passer Rating against under 60.0 (Joseph – 39.5, Branch – 56.2) while Joseph leads the NFL with 7 interceptions with Branch contributing another four. These two are each hard hitters that make the middle of the field a treacherous place to attack while trying to beat them deep can be equally as perilous. This means Buffalo may have to attack Detroit’s corners on quick routes this week with advantages to be had over the likes of Terrion Arnold (CB), Carlton Davis (CB), and Amik Robertson (Slot CB). Look for them to look for 1-on-1s on the outside with Amari Cooper and possibly Keon Coleman whilst they rely on Khalil Shakir and/or their tight ends to get open in the flats or open up some deep passes via the seam against this Lions secondary.

This matchup for Buffalo doesn’t get much easier up front as the Lions have a propensity to get after opposing quarterbacks. While their injuries have racked up their style of play hasn’t shifted very much from their uber aggressive approach which has them ranked 3rd in blitz rate on the seasons (32.2%). Leading that charge is the Lions linebackers where Jack Campbell and Malcom Rodriguez each have 40+ blitzes on the season however, the injury bug has even hit there. Rodriguez won’t play this week meaning Trevor Nowaske and/or Kwon Alexander are set to see the field more this week. Those two combined to blitz 4 times last week meaning despite the change in personnel a change in strategy is not imminent. This will stress the Bills interior offensive line of David Edwards (LG), Connor McGovern (C), and O’Cyrus Torrence (RG) as they will need to pick up the interior blitzes early while Buffalo’s tackles will need to slow down a group of banged up edge rushers headlined by Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O’Conner, and Za’Darius Smith. All in all, it’s a tough matchup for the Bills who will need Josh Allen to be at the top of his game, including avoiding sacks, if they have any chance of leaving Detroit with a win.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Offense vs. Lions Rush Defense

The Bills Week #13 loss left them with a couple concerns, one obviously being their defense but another being their traditional rushing attack. While Josh Allen accounted for 95% of the team’s offensive output, including 82 rushing yards, the remaining 5% was made up of 21 rushing yards by running backs and Curtis Samuel. Against the Rams, Buffalo just had no early answer on the ground as they consistently were stopped near or behind the line of scrimmage. While not a 5-alarm concern this is something worth monitoring as the long-held idea that Josh Allen is the primary reason running backs can be successful in Buffalo is beginning to show signs of truth. Holding that at bay for as long as possible is paramount for a Bills team that leans on a complementary offense and this week could be the difference between a successful offensive outing, and a poor one.

While Detroit’s pass defense is the highlight of that side of the ball, their run defense has been very good as well. Their high blitz rate has the ability to affect the run as they have given up just 1221 rushing yards on the season, 5th fewest in the NFL. Jack Campbell has been their most effective player in this context as the second-year linebacker leads the Lions with 98 tackles while contributing 5 tackles for loss with a missed tackle rate of just 3.9%. At 6’5” 243lb, Campbell uses his size and length to slow down speedier backs which makes him an optimal matchup for a player like James Cook. Couple that with safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph’s ability to play close to the line of scrimmage and issues are likely to surface for Cook and co. on the ground this week. For that reason, Buffalo’s rotation at running back will be more important this week than any week prior as finding the proper player that best fits against the Lions in James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson will be an important coaching decision Buffalo must nail.

Where a major question does exist heading into this game is in the defensive interior for Detroit as the status of Alim McNeill (DT) and DJ Reader (DT) is up in the air. McNeill is expected to clear concussion protocol prior to the game while DJ Reader is still working through a shoulder injury. Detroit would love to have at least one of these players play, especially McNeill who has been a dominant force in the middle of the Lions defensive line this season. One of the league’s better nose tackles, McNeill has taken a massive step forward in year four in the NFL as a player that can stack multiple blockers and drive them backwards against both the pass and the rush. He is set to cause issues for Buffalo all day Sunday with Reader being an additional piece that has the ability to shatter the Bills traditional run game. Joe Brady will need to get into his bag a bit here and not simply attack the A and B gap on 1st down all day Sunday, something he has done consistently this entire season.

ADVANTAGE: Lions 👏

Bills Pass Defense vs. Lions Pass Offense

Buffalo’s pass defense was a disaster against the Rams with one caveat, the Rams played a near flawless game. This included a set of passes from Matthew Stafford that few quarterbacks in the NFL could make while Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp made spectacular play after spectacular play. That’s still no excuse for the Bills who left plenty of holes open in the secondary while generating nearly no pass rush. This doesn’t bode well for Buffalo’s upcoming game with matters made worse by injuries to both of Buffalo’s starting safeties, Taylor Rapp & Damar Hamlin, as well as starting corner Rasul Douglas. As of Thursday, the trio is questionable to play in Sunday’s contest meaning players like Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis, Lewis Cine, and Ja’Marcus Ingram will need to step up for the Bills. It can’t get much worse than it did against the Rams, or can it?

While the skill players for the Rams are arguably better than the skill players for the Lions, the completeness of Detroit’s offense makes them significantly more dangerous. That starts in the trenches where the Lions tout the best offensive line in football. Penei Sewell is a lock as 1st team All-Pro at RT while Frank Ragnow (C) and Taylor Decker (LT) may also gain some individual hardware in the near future. Their offensive line rounds out with Graham Glasgow (LG) and Kevin Zeitler (RG) each of whom have been good to great this entire season. With Buffalo’s inconsistent pass rush it’s fair to say that the Bills won’t be pressuring Jared Goff this week with a 4-man pass rush, meaning they will need to facilitate it in other ways. What does that mean? Blitz, and blitz some more. Look for Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, and Taron Johnson to play near the line of scrimmage all day with at least one of them going after Goff more consistently than in weeks past. Buffalo needs to hit on the blitz this week, if they don’t…

The Lions will shred them through the air by attacking every level of their defense. Amon-Ra is the primary star, of many, in that aspect as an athletic physical wide receiver that can win on the outside or in the slot. Look for the Lions to move him to generate mismatches and attack said mismatches at will to pick up big chunks of yard. A similar concept applies to Jameson Williams who is having the first legit season of his career as one of the league’s most devastating deep threats. His speed, and the Lions willingness to throw 50/50 balls to him, makes him a massive concern for a Bills team that may trot out a couple inexperienced safeties on Sunday. If that is the case rookie Cole Bishop and whoever lines up next to him will need to balance preventing massive gains while disrupting the underneath. Because underneath the Lions are set to feed Tight End Sam LaPorta and arguably the most electric player in the NFL, Jahmyr Gibbs. LaPorta isn’t having the season many expected of him (similar to Dalton Kincaid), but he is still a solid safety blanket for Jared Goff while Gibbs has executed big play after big play. Buffalo needs to bring their A game to slow these guys down but for a team that has been susceptible to many things, including the screen pass, players like Jahmyr Gibbs, who excels in the screen game, present a massive problem.

ADVANTAGE: Lions 👏👏👏

Bills Rush Defense vs. Lions Rush Offense

For all the issues the Bills had on Sunday against the Rams, their run defense surprisingly wasn’t one of them. Buffalo held Rams running backs to 3.3 yards per attempt as Kyren Williams, for the most part, struggled to get things consistently rolling for the Rams ground game. This has been much of what has occurred this season despite the general perception of the Bills run defense, as despite the occasional big gain the Bills have done an OK job of slowing down opposing runners. That being said, the Rams did expose a weakness of the Bills, something they had a gameplan for heading in, and that was to attack the edges with speed. The Rams leaned on Puka Nacua in that regard and gashed Buffalo multiple times on important plays as Buffalo’s defensive ends struggled to balance staying home and rushing the passer. Don’t be surprised if future opponents of the Bills noticed this with plans to recreate that approach, with the Lions being the perfect team to execute that.

While Detroit doesn’t need to lean on the auxiliary rushing attack because their traditional rushing game is so good, they can. The most dangerous weapon in that toolbox is speedster Jameson Williams who may not have the physicality of Puka Nacua, but he does possess game wrecking speed. Considering how good Ben Johnson is at identifying opponent’s weaknesses and attacking them, don’t be surprised if you see a handful of handoffs to Williams, or even Nacua this week. This is set to stress Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, and Von Miller all of whom will need to stay home while also focusing on getting to Jared Goff more often than not. And it just so happens that while Goff is statuesque the Lions have proven willing to use Goff in the ground game. On the season he has picked up 8 first downs with his legs and could be an important part of the game flow seen on Sunday.

As @Pro__Ant and I said on his Disguised Coverage show for @Cover1 this week...there's a lot more "Knuckles" to Jahmyr Gibbs game. He's not just "Sonic" or speed all the time. He will lower his shoulder and bounce off contact. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/a4awV3YX3H
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) December 12, 2024

But the highlight of the Bills run game is the best running back duo in the NFL, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The ultimate thunder and lightning, Montgomery and Gibbs are a near impossible matchup for any defense. Montgomery has bruised his way to 771 rushing yards on the season as the Lions primary option in short yardage situations. His ability to fall forward is uncanny while his strength and power is tangible at the point of contact. Gibbs complements him perfectly as a dasher out of the backfield with the long speed to win a race to the edge or endzone and the quickness to fool defenders in a phone booth. This lines up the match of the game, Montgomery & Gibbs versus Matt Milano & Terrel Bernard in a battle of two great duos. In a vacuum it’s a fairly even contest but with everything surrounding these two players and Matt Milano still getting his feet wet, a massive advantage is owed to the Detroit Lions.

ADVANTAGE: Lions 👏👏👏👏

Bills Special Teams vs. Lions Special Teams

Tyler Bass was 6/6 on extra points against the Rams as he continues to climb out of the hole that nearly saw him replaced as the Bills place kicker. He isn’t currently a player you should be comfortable kicking for points but also one that has elite level talent in his pocket. At punter for the Bills, Sam Martin had his first major hiccup of an otherwise impressive season as he had a punt blocked for a touchdown against the Rams. Lastly is return man Brandon Codrington, who now more than ever the Bills need to make a game altering play, he has the ability to do it and if he does it this week it could be the difference between 11-3 and 10-4.

As for the Lions, they very well may have the best special team’s unit in the NFL. At kicker, Jake Bates very well may be the next All-Pro kicker as he has drilled an insane 97.2% of his kicks this season. As automatic as it comes, Bates lining up in Ford Field’s dome is almost guaranteed points for Detroit. At Punter, Jack Fox has been about as good as Jake Baters accounting for the league’s second-best net yards per punt (45.7). He rarely gives up returns and when he does that are minimal at best. Lastly for the Rams is electric Punt Returner, Kalif Raymond, who is averaging 14.4 yards per punt return this season. He is a massive threat with the ball in his hands while the Lions have a couple threats on kick return, including Khalil Dorsey, who could pose problems given the chance.

ADVANTAGE: Lions 👏👏👏👏

Why Buffalo Will Lose

For the first time in a long time the Buffalo Bills are not the more talented team taking the field. The Detroit Lions are the most well-balanced team in the NFL and can beat you in a multitude of ways. On offense that means beating the snot of you on the ground and hitting deep bombs through the air. They fit the Bills incompetencies incredibly well and should be able to beat them on the ground and via the pass. All of this is attributed to an offensive line that is dominant in every way and has the ability to destroy any team in the trenches, including the Bills.

On the other side of the ball Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are basically a cheat code when it comes to defending the pass and the run. They will hawk the ball in the air while blowing up runners on the ground. That same aggressive nature permeates through the entirety of their defense and allows them to play a highly physical brand of football that causes issues for most opposing offenses. They can force turnovers on the Bills, and though they may not need it this week, it’s just another path they can trot down to win this game.

Why Buffalo Will Win

With Josh Allen, all things are possible. As long as #17 is at the helm any talent gap discrepancy between the Bills and their opponent is mitigated. The Detroit Lions defense has the answers for most of Buffalo’s offense but has been proven over the past 4+ years there is never really an answer for Josh Allen. If he goes off and finds any help from his receivers or even the ground game then 30+ points are in sight. At 30 points, the Bills have a chance, not a guarantee, but a chance.

On defense things are a bit more tenuous but if Buffalo does one thing they will have a chance, embrace the chaos. That means not concerning themselves with giving up the big play and leaning on creating massive negative plays via sacks, tackles for loss, or even turnovers as the best way to stay in this game. Expect a heavy dose of blitzing with tacklers ripping at the ball and players in coverage attempting to jump the pass. Buffalo needs a handful of them to win, and though that will be difficult to do, it’s far from impossible.

Prediction: Bills 30 – Lions 35

The Lions are just too good a team to pick the Bills to win this game. Despite that there is a path for the Bills to win it if Josh Allen keeps playing like he has, and one defender makes a play at some point this game. It may not be likely, and I will not be betting on it, but it’s undeniably possible. If this outcome were to occur there is little need to panic as Buffalo still has a solid path to the #2 seed, but a win here could significantly boost confidence and morale for the stretch run of an impressive Buffalo Bills team.

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