Bills' minimal roster turnover potential indicator for Super Bowl success

Is roster turnover, or lack of, indicative of season success? The Buffalo Bills' fans want to know.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen signals they are going for the two-point conversion during the second half of the Buffalo Bills wild wild-card game. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Every year NFL teams experience a high volume of roster turnover. The league average is roughly 60 percent, not including practice squad players. Now, keep in mind that this number is an average, but the percentage from one team to another can differ significantly.

According to Over The Cap, in 2024, the Washington Commanders returned only 39 percent of their 2023 roster, while the top team to retain their roster last year was the Indianapolis Colts, who returned a whopping 81.7 percent. This is interesting data, considering the extreme opposite results these two teams experienced last season.

As we continue through the offseason, the Buffalo Bills are at the top in terms of returning players with 84.2 percent. This is vastly different than the number returning to start the 2024 season, when the Bills brought back only 59.3 percent.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and offensive tackle Spencer Brown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship game. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Of the top ten with the lowest roster turnover this offseason, seven of them were playoff teams from a year ago, compared to six of the top ten in 2023. Sometimes, roster turnover can be the result of salary cap issues, non-competitive team going into a rebuild, or aging players.

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As was the case with the Bills heading into 2024, several players were let go or not re-signed due to age or injury. Last year's Super Bowl participants, the Chiefs and Eagles, returned 66.7 and 59 percent of their rosters, respectively.

Is there any correlation between roster turnover and playoff success?

The data doesn't support either argument. Hopefully, in the case of the Bills, it means a Super Bowl season is coming in 2025.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen reacts against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship game. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

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