Bills Central

Despite plummeting Super Bowl LX odds, Buffalo Bills still have path to Santa Clara

Despite a better record and head-to-head wins over both teams, the Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl LX odds are worse than the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.
Josh Allen
Josh Allen | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With seven wins, the Buffalo Bills are already at 10 wins. How's that math add up?

On their remaining schedule are layups against the 3-8 Bengals, 3-8 Browns and 2-9 Jets. To get to a 12-5 record, they have to win two of three against the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. Doable, right?

Considering the AFC East-leading Pats still have the 2-10 Giants, Jets and 4-7 Dolphins on their schedule, getting to 12 wins may not be enough for Buffalo to win their division for a sixth consecutive season.

MORE: FOX analyst Rob Gronkowski offers ominous opinion on Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl window

But it doesn't mean their Super Bowl hopes are dashed.

Yes the Bills have trouble stopping the run on defense and on offense their receivers struggle to get open against man-to-man coverage. But they're 7-4 and, most importantly, they have Josh Allen.

While Bills Mafia may still believe this team can get to Santa Clara in February for Super Bowl LX, the NFL experts are clearly losing faith.

Before the season the Bills were tied with the Chiefs and Ravens for the best Super Bowl odds among AFC teams at +750. After going 3-4 in their last seven games, however, their Super Bowl LX odds have dropped to +1300, only eighth-best in the NFL and fourth in the AFC. Despite wins head-to-head and owning a better regular-season record, the Bills' odds are inexplicably worse than the Chiefs (+1050) and Ravens (+1200).

Oddly, the Bills' odds remain better than two division leaders with better records: the Broncos at +1400 and Patriots at +1500.

Sean McDermott
Sean McDermott | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Translation: Oddsmakers don't yet believe in Denver or New England, and they trust Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson more than Allen.

Same story in the latest NFL Power Rankings, where the loss to the Texans dropped the Bills from No. 7 to No. 9. Writes The Athletic of Buffalo:

"The Texans entered last Thursday’s game with the NFL’s worst rushing offense (based on success rate). Then Woody Marks blasted the Bills for 4.6 yards per carry as Houston had few issues on the ground. The Bills are legit in a lot of areas, but they need to figure out their run defense before the playoffs."

MORE: Buffalo Bills' staggering fall getting harsh criticism from national media

The Bills can still make a run to the Super Bowl. But their margin - and their believers - are growing thin.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

James Cook
James Cook | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

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Richie Whitt
RICHIE WHITT

Richie Whitt has been a sports media fixture in Dallas-Fort Worth since graduating from UT-Arlington in 1986. His career is highlighted by successful stints in print (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas Observer), TV (NBC5) and radio (105.3 The Fan). During his almost 40-year tenure, he's blabbed and blogged on events ranging from Super Bowls to NBA Finals to World Series to Stanley Cups to Olympics to Wimbledons to World Cups. Whitt has been covering the NFL since 1989, and in 1993 authored The 'Boys Are Back, a book chronicling the Dallas Cowboys' run to Super Bowl XXVII.

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