Buffalo Bills' QB Josh Allen dubbed 'overvalued' by fantasy football expert

Josh Allen overvalued? When it comes to fantasy football, it's not as crazy as it sounds.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen. | Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen and overvalued never go together in the same sentence, unless you're talking about fantasy football.

Since quarterbacks stopped getting six points for passing scores in almost all fantasy football leagues over the years, the position has been devalued a bit.

Now, that's not to say quarterbacks aren't valued in fantasy football, but drafting them early is never a great recipe for success, no matter who it is.

Despite that fact, Allen is, on average, being drafted with the No. 23 overall pick in early fantasy drafts this year, according to Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report.

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That means Allen is a second-round pick in 12-team leagues. Davenport thinks that's too high.

"For starters, for as well as Allen played last year, three quarterbacks scored more fantasy points," Davenport said. "Also, even if the first quarterback drafted in fantasy actually finishes in that spot (which almost never happens), the edge gained by fantasy managers isn’t worth the hole that taking a signal-caller this early creates at running back or wide receiver. The gap between the No. 1 quarterback (Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens) and No. 12 quarterback in fantasy points per game (Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos) last year was 6.8 points — a smaller gap than between the 'best' and 'worst' weekly starters in the backfield and at wideout."

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen gets ready to throw a pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid during practice at the Buffalo Bills training camp at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford on July 24, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Davenport's logic makes sense. Look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal-caller Baker Mayfield, for example.

Mayfield finished with just 3.2 fantasy points less than Allen did in 2024, per Fantasy Pros, yet his ADP (average draft position) was No. 152 and Mayfield typically came off boards as QB22.

What that shows is fantasy football owners can still get a top-flight quarterback without having to spend an early-round pick on the position and can instead utilize their early picks on positions that typically have a much wider gap between the best and the rest.

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Don't get it twisted: Allen's dual-threat ability makes him one of the best assets at quarterback in fantasy football and he's no doubt one of the best at the position in the entire league.

But when it comes to fantasy football, taking him anywhere in the first few rounds is a mistake and could negatively impact your ability to build out the rest of your roster.

Sep 8, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leaps over Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker (3) and scores a touchdown during the second half at Highmark Stadium | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

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