Bills' source provides insight into Dalton Kincaid's 2024 struggles

In the 2023 NFL Draft, Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane surprised a portion of the fan base and selected tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick.

Fans were immediately divided in their opinion of the move. Some were excited that quarterback Josh Allen was getting a new weapon, which many thought he needed. The problem was those on the other side of the fence felt he wasn't the right weapon. They wanted one of the top receivers in the class.

Fast forward to the end of his rookie season. Kincaid set Bills' records for most receptions by a tight end and rookie. He completed his rookie season with 73 receptions, 673 yards, and two touchdowns. Fans were now on board the Kincaid train and excited about what year two for the young tight end would bring.

Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincaid — Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Year 2 was not the big breakout year most expected. Kincaid was second on the team in targets with 75, but turned that into just 44 catches, 448 yards, and two touchdowns. To make matters worse, he was unable to haul in Allen's late fourth down pass to convert a first down in the AFC title game.

It sounds like Kincaid might have been dealing with injuries more than he or the team was letting on. NFL fantasy guru Matthew Berry recently shared a few "interesting" things he heard from the NFL combine and shared this about Kincaid, "I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. “He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me.”

Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincai — Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

We know Kincaid injured his collarbone in the Week Six matchup against the Jets, but he didn't miss any time. He also suffered a knee injury in Week 10 against the Colts and missed the next three weeks. It seems the injuries continued and lingered throughout the season.

Allen said of his tight end following the AFC title game, "I've gotta be better for him... I know he's been battling throughout the entire year, bumps and bruises, probably some games he shouldn't have played he was in."

Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee — “It’s insane what he’s played through”
— katherine fitzgerald (@kfitz134) January 27, 2025

In the first six games of the 2024 season, Kincaid had a catch rate of 67.7, but over the final seven, that number dropped to 52.3. The drop in the catch rate didn't coincide with any injury that we are aware of, so it's unclear what changed. The sophomore slump, used differently within the offense, or maybe defenses changed how they defended him. Perhaps it was all of the above, but it's obvious Allen and the Bills expect a bounce-back year in 2025.

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