Bills Central

ESPN's flawed computer model still thinks Ravens are better than Bills

ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Ravens a better chance to win Super Bowl LX than the Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates with head coach Sean McDermott and Matt Prater
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates with head coach Sean McDermott and Matt Prater | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Along with movies like The Matrix and Terminator, this is why some of us are leery about AI.

Despite last Sunday night's epic showdown in which the Buffalo Bills rallied to beat the Ravens, ESPN's Football Power Index computer model still gives Baltimore a better statistical chance than Buffalo to win Super Bowl LX.

Not sure how to explain that one. Maybe ESPN's computer doesn't get NBC? The human beings who actually watched the game disagree, as the Bills' Super Bowl odds improved at betting sites in the wake of the signature victory.

MORE: ESPN analyst calls Bills' improbable rally over Ravens Josh Allen's 'best game ever'

Down 40-25 late in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen and the Bills produced a miraculous comeback and won, 41-40, on newly signed kicker Matt Prater's 32-yard field goal on the final play. It's not only the early leader for NFL Game of the Year, the result will resonate all season in terms of standings and AFC home-field sites in the playoffs.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen passes to running back James Cook against the Baltimore Ravens
Bills quarterback Josh Allen passes to running back James Cook against the Baltimore Ravens | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Could Allen and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson meet again in the postseason? Absolutely. But with Buffalo now owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, being favored in its remaining 16 games and playing in a weak AFC East in which the other teams are 0-1, it's difficult to fathom how the Ravens still have a better chance of being crowned champions Feb. 8 in Santa Clara.

MORE: AFC East power rankings entering Week 2: Bills stand alone in first place

Much less a decidedly better chance. According to the ESPN model's Tuesday morning update, the Ravens now have a 15.0 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Bills, who beat them less than 48 hours ago, are second-best at only 10.8 percent. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the only other team greater than 10 percent.

Further computer confusion, ESPN’s FPI also gives the Bills better odds of making the playoffs (90.2 percent) than Baltimore (83.2 percent).

Bills Matt Prater is hoisted on the teams shoulders after his field goal beat the Baltimore Ravens
Bills Matt Prater is hoisted on the teams shoulders after his field goal beat the Baltimore Ravens | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

yard field goal against the Los Angeles Rams / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

—  Enjoy free coverage of the Bills from Buffalo Bills on SI  —

More Buffalo Bills News:


Published
Richie Whitt
RICHIE WHITT

Richie Whitt has been a sports media fixture in Dallas-Fort Worth since graduating from UT-Arlington in 1986. His career is highlighted by successful stints in print (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas Observer), TV (NBC5) and radio (105.3 The Fan). During his almost 40-year tenure, he's blabbed and blogged on events ranging from Super Bowls to NBA Finals to World Series to Stanley Cups to Olympics to Wimbledons to World Cups. Whitt has been covering the NFL since 1989, and in 1993 authored The 'Boys Are Back, a book chronicling the Dallas Cowboys' run to Super Bowl XXVII.

Share on XFollow richiewhitt