Sean McDermott's Dismissal Yet to Affect Bills' 2026 Win Total Projections

There's already been noticeable operational differences surrounding the 2026 Buffalo Bills, but their consensus win total projection remains highly similar to what it's been.

For as much responsibility that he bears for building the foundation, the Bills are still trending upward following the dismissal of head coach Sean McDermott.

Even with first-time head coach Joe Brady, who's only 36 years old, the Bills are expected to be contenders both internally and externally. Owner Terry Pegula certainly has high expectations after firing a nine-year head coach for failing to break through the "playoff wall."

When it comes to the Bills' potential in 2026, the bookmakers have set the over/under total at 10.5 regular season wins. That number suggests that Buffalo has more than enough ability to post an eighth consecutive double-digit victory total.

Laying out his "over/under predictions for NFL win totals in 2026" in order of most confident to least confident, Sports Illustrated national writer Gilberto Manzano is bullish on the Bills to say the least.

His most confident bet is the Detroit Lions to exceed 10.5 wins. The Bills are at No. 4 overall on the 32-team list as more than likely to go OVER their projected win total.

Interestingly enough, the Lions will be Buffalo's Week 2 opponent for the inaugural Highmark Stadium game on September 17.

"Part of me wants to place this bet inside the top three, but I’m trying to avoid the trap of relying too much on over bets. However, it was hard to resist because Buffalo has four combined games against the Dolphins and Jets, two AFC East teams that will probably be picking high in next year’s draft," said Manzano.

Josh Allen, Joe Brady — Bills quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, right, watches as Josh Allen (17) throws downfield on the second day of the Buffalo Bills training camp at St. John Fisher University in Rochester Monday, July 25, 2022. | Shawn Dowd / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Josh Allen factor

By picking on the side of recent history, Manzano is maximizing his chances of a winning wager. The Bills have posted at least 11 regular season wins each of the past six seasons with Josh Allen as the quarterback.

In 2025, the 30-year-old Allen finished one regular season touchdown shy of becoming the only player in NFL history with six consecutive seasons of at least 40 total touchdowns. Now, the 2024 NFL MVP has his offensive coordinator as the new head coach and an additional weapon with the arrival of wide receiver DJ Moore.

"I think the level of consistency we’ve become accustomed to with this team should remain the same even with new coach Joe Brady, who has worked with Josh Allen for the past four years. It also helps that Allen’s weaponry got better with the trade for DJ Moore," said Manzano.

DJ Moore catch — Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) catches a late fourth quarter touchdown to give the Bears the lead over the Green Bay Packers during their wild-card playoff football game Saturday, January 10, 2026, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Meanwhile, belief in Allen is seemingly what convinced Pegula to move on from McDermott.

"I saw the pain in Josh's face at his presser, and I felt his pain. I know we can do better, and I know we will get better," said Pegula upon launching the search for a new head coach. "We are focused on bringing a Super Bowl to Buffalo. We have an MVP quarterback in Josh Allen."

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