Bills' playoff probability gets notable bump thanks to AFC rivals' Thanksgiving losses

The Buffalo Bills, who currently hold the No. 7 seed, extended their advantages over the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) at the line of scrimmage during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It goes without saying, but it's going to come down to the Buffalo Bills needing to help themselves.

Regardless of the other results from around the conference, the Bills have to win the majority of their six remaining regular season games to ensure themselves a seventh straight trip to the NFL Playoffs. Their next opportunity is on November 30 in a road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

With that said, it sure doesn't hurt when rivals like the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens lose on the same day, and that's exactly what happened on Thanksgiving. While the Bills were presumably enjoying time with their families, the Chiefs suffered defeat in Dallas prior to the Cincinnati Bengals beating down the Ravens in Baltimore.

Having slipped in recent weeks, the Bills (7-4) currently own the final AFC wildcard spot and would be the No. 7 seed if the season ended today. The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) are No. 5 followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) at No. 6 in the AFC standings.

Not only are they two games ahead of both the Chiefs (6-6) and the Ravens (6-6) in the loss column, Buffalo owns head-to-head victories over both teams. Simply put, with two competitors suffering losses, the Bills' wildcard chances received a somewhat unexpected boost as Week 13 kicked off Thursday.

Bills' playoff chances

According to New York Times online playoffs simulator, the Bills moved to an 82 percent probability of qualifying as of Friday morning. The Ravens fell to 60 percent with their most realistic path being as the AFC North division winner. The Chiefs dropped to 44 percent to make the playoffs.

The Houston Texans (6-5), currently the No. 8 seed, and on the outside looking in, are a sneaky threat to the Bills, especially after the head-to-head win in Week 12. The Texans earn a playoff spot in 44 percent of NY Times simulations.

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The latest NY Times projections place Buffalo in the No. 6 spot, finishing with an 11-6 record. In this scenario, the Bills would visit the AFC South champion Indianapolis Colts (11-6) for a first-round matchup.

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans linebacker Henry To'oTo'o (39) sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the second half at NRG Stadium | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Extra meaningful matchup vs. Steelers

It's a chance to improve their conference win-loss record, which is used as a key tiebreaker come January. It's also an opportunity to further separate from another team competing for a playoff spot.

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The Steelers (6-5) are currently the AFC North leader by one-half game, so another head-to-head win over a playoff contender will only help the Bills' chances to qualify. A loss, however, could knock Buffalo to the outside of the playoff picture if the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts (8-3).

Bengals defense rushes to take down Steelers Aaron Rodgers (8) during their game against the Steelers on Sunday November 16, 2025 at Acrisure Stadium. | Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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