Bills can save season with win over Steelers according to playoff model

The Buffalo Bills find themselves in a dangerous place in the AFC's standings, currently holding onto the seventh, and final, playoff spot.

However, a win on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers will drastically improve their odds of making the postseason, according to the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model.

According to the model, the Bills currently have an 87% chance of making the playoffs, higher than the five-seed Chargers (60%) and six-seed Jaguars (69%). With a win, Buffalo's odds would increase to 95%, the third-highest in the conference behind the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.

MORE: Bills catch break as Mike Tomlin rules out two Steelers' starters for pivotal AFC matchup

However, with a loss in Pittsburgh, Buffalo's playoff odds drop to 76%, giving this matchup a potential 19-point swing for the Bills.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs 52 yards for a touchdown in a 31-17 playoff win over the Steelers. | Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ali Bhanpuri, senior director, content & editorial for NFL Media, explains that eight teams have "playoff leverages of at least 19 points this week," which is more than twice as many as the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Steelers currently have a 38% playoff probability, with a win lifting them up to 53%, and a loss dropping them to 28%, illustrating that plenty is at stake for Mike Tomlin and his team.

For the first time since 2019, the Bills will likely be a Wild Card contender in the playoffs, currently holding just a 22% chance of winning the AFC East, compared to New England's 78% chance. According to Bhanpuri, "The Patriots can lose two of their next three games (Giants, Bills, Ravens), and still clinch the East, as long as they beat the Jets and Dolphins over the final two weeks of the season."

In the end, the Bills just need to find their way into the postseason, because as long as Josh Allen is at the helm, Buffalo has a chance to go on a playoff run.

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott looks on in the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

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