3 stats could define Week 4 matchup between Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints

The Buffalo Bills are back in action as they get ready to take on the New Orleans Saints for an early afternoon matchup.

It’s not easy to find a potential road to victory for New Orleans (0-3), as Buffalo (3-0) has been the better team through three games on both sides of the ball.

Led by their MVP quarterback, the Bills are sitting pretty in the AFC, while the Saints, guided by a first-year head coach, have proven to be one of the worst teams in the NFL throughout Weeks 1 through 3.

With that said, as always, there are a few interesting dynamics worth diving into before this game kicks off on Sunday afternoon. Here are three stats that could define this week’s non-conference meeting between Buffalo and New Orleans:

Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship Game | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Third-Down Defense

The Bills’ defense has been good enough to start the season, bouncing back from a rough Week 1 outing against the Baltimore Ravens to produce two straight solid efforts. However, it’s been a bit of a roller-coaster ride when it comes to the team’s third-down defense, which has been spotty at best throughout the first three weeks of the year.

Buffalo allowed its Week 3 opponent, the Miami Dolphins, to convert 10 of 15 third-down opportunities, just a week after limiting the New York Jets to a 0 of 11 clip on third down in Week 2. On the year, the Bills are allowing their opponents to convert on 43.24% (16 of 37) of their third-down tries, which is ranked 23rd-best in the NFL.

MORE: Saints will be without game-changing pass rusher Sunday vs. Bills

With that said, as bad as Buffalo has been defensively on third down, the Saints’ offense has been nearly as abysmal offensively. New Orleans has converted on just 14 of its 40 (35%) third-down opportunities through three weeks, which is sixth-worst in the league.

In this Week 4 matchup, whichever team can buck their disturbing trend on third down could go a long way in deciding who comes away with the win. The Bills have done a nice job forcing teams into disadvantageous third-down situations this season, as the average distance opposing teams have faced against Buffalo is third-and-8.2 yards, per Erik Turner of Cover 1. The next step is tightening the screws, particularly in pass coverage, to get opposing offenses off the field.

Loading The Box

The Saints’ offense has been dreadful through three weeks, as it's averaging the fourth-fewest points per game in the NFL, scoring an average of 15.7 points per contest. New Orleans’ quarterback play has left plenty to be desired to start the year, with second-year pro Spencer Rattler averaging a paltry 5.4 yards per pass attempt, which is 28th in the NFL.

Alvin Kamara has also struggled, as he has produced just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt on the year. Nevertheless, the Saints’ running back remains a threat out of the backfield, particularly when facing favorable circumstances.

Per Next Gen Stats, Kamara leads running backs in attempts against a light box this season, facing six or fewer defenders on 68% of his rushing attempts (minimum 30 carries). During the 2025 campaign, Kamara has totaled 137 yards rushing on seven first downs against a light box. On the other side of the coin, the Bills’ defense has struggled to defend against the run while employing a light box, allowing 7 yards per carry when doing so, which is the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

Buffalo has upped its usage of base 4-3 this season, as nickel cornerback Taron Johnson has been on the field for just 66% of the team’s defensive snaps in the two games he has played, down from 84% last season. It would appear as if this would be a good week for the Bills to continue that trend, using an extra linebacker to help pack the box in hopes of slowing one of the Saints’ most dangerous offensive players.

Downfield Passing Game

There has been plenty of discussion surrounding the Bills' offense’s lack of a downfield passing game this season, particularly this past week against the Dolphins.

In the win over Miami, 92.9% of quarterback Josh Allen’s pass attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage or between 0-9 air yards, which is the fifth-highest rate for any quarterback with at least 30 drop-backs in a game since 2016. Allen and the Bills’ offense have been taking what defenses have been giving them, which has worked well through three weeks.

This week against the Saints, that could look a little bit different. Per Next Gen Stats, in Week 3, New Orleans allowed Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold to complete six of eight downfield passes (10-plus air yards) for 146 yards and a touchdown.

Perhaps this is the week we see Allen and the Buffalo offense as a whole open things up.

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