Buffalo Bills' hopes for division title slipping away per playoff prediction machine

Following a 4-0 start to the season, there appeared to be no stopping the Buffalo Bills in their quest to earn another AFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Bills (4-2) were averaging over 30 points per game, the offense was humming and the defense was doing enough to help Buffalo become the favorite to become the AFC's representative in the Super Bowl.

Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa (97) on the field against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Fast forward three weeks, coming off of two straight losses that have pushed them to second place in the East, and the Bills are now clinging to hope that they can turn things around and make a late-season push for divisional and conference superiority.

According to 100,000 simulations conducted by the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator, the Bills have a 90% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 8. However, their chances of earning the coveted top seed have fallen to a rock-bottom level as, per the simulator, the Bills' probability of finishing the year atop the AFC is now at just 16%.

To make matters more worrisome, Buffalo is becoming more and more likely to punch its playoff ticket through a wild card berth, which would mean the Bills would relinquish the AFC East crown for the first time in six seasons. Per the simulator, there is a 47% chance Buffalo ends the regular season as a wild card team.

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Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle David Onyemata (90) and defensive tackle Sam Roberts (99) apply pressure on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17). | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

That's a far cry from where the Bills were early in the season, when certain projections gave them over a 65% chance of earning the top seed in the AFC.

With the New England Patriots surging to the top of the AFC East standings, it's no surprise that the Bills have fallen out of favor in the divisional race. In addition, the Kansas City Chiefs have won two in a row and seem to have put their early-season struggles behind them, and the Indianapolis Colts have maintained their position as the top team in the conference throughout the year.

Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Jamal Agnew (14) is tackled by Buffalo Bills linebacker Joe Andreessen (44) during the second half of a game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Once considered the unquestioned leader of the pack, the Bills have suddenly become just another team in the race, with a non-conference matchup with the Carolina Panthers upcoming. If Buffalo were to lose to Carolina, it would see its playoff chances dive to 82%, per the Times' simulator.

Before the start of the season, it would have been difficult to imagine this team being in as dire need of a victory over the Panthers (4-3) as it is heading into this Sunday’s contest. But that is the reality of the situation.

If the Bills fail to measure up once again this week, we may have to start talking about significant changes that need to be made in order to save Buffalo’s postseason hopes.

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