Chiefs Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Team Against Raiders in Week 4

Just like the entire football world predicted, the Kansas City Chiefs will walk into Allegiant Stadium on Sunday afternoon with sole possession of first place in the AFC West on the line.

Awaiting their AFC West foes are the Las Vegas Raiders, who have capitalized on better-than-expected execution and a cushy early-season schedule to construct perhaps the surprise resume of the sport entering Week 4.

With that said, it's abundantly clear that Kansas City isn't taking its rivals lightly. How could that be reflected in the final score?

Let's break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 4 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs' offense vs. Raiders' defense

The biggest shock coming from Las Vegas might be the production of coordinator Rob Leonard's defense. Through three games, per SumerSports, it ranks second in the sport in lowest EPA per play allowed (-0.198) while also ceding the eighth-lowest success rate at 41.8%. The Raiders are stingy both against the run (-0.313 EPA/play, fourth) and the pass (-0.127, first), so there's a world where the Chiefs have some trouble.

On the other hand, this does seem like a group that's due for the other shoe to drop at some point. Las Vegas has benefited from a surplus of takeaways, which can and does reflect a ferocious defense, but this is a somewhat unsustainable arc. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes must still be on his Ps and Qs when making decisions, although that hasn't been much of an issue this year.

Doing the dirty work as pass rushers up front for Las Vegas are All-Pro Maxx Crosby and fellow edge players Kwity Paye and Malcolm Koonce. Elsewhere, linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean are attempting to keep the defense's high-flying pace intact. Leonard's crew flies around the field and plays with confidence, which is fueling the aforementioned hot start.

Las Vegas hasn't seen a back quite like Kenneth Walker III in the season's first month yet, though. Walker is a premier broken-tackle threat and has influenced the play-action game enough that the host team's linebackers may have no choice but to commit to stopping him.

As far as the passing attack is concerned, it could be yet another week of getting the ball out quickly due to the personnel on the other side (and left tackle Josh Simmons being out again). Per TruMedia, Kansas City is throwing the fourth-shortest distance relative to the sticks and ranks seventh in passes being thrown in less than 2.5 seconds.

The key in this one might be wide receiver Rashee Rice, who feasted against the Miami Dolphins' zone-heavy approach in Week 3. The Raiders don't man up opposing receivers very often.

Chiefs' defense vs. Raiders' offense

As expected, having first-year head coach Klint Kubiak in town has worked wonders on the Raiders' offense. Despite being 27th in yards per drive (partially thanks to those takeaways providing short fields), Las Vegas is ninth in points per drive and 10th in share of drives finishing with scores. Captaining the ship is quarterback Kirk Cousins, who's thrown for 661 yards and a league-leading nine touchdowns at the ripe old age of 38.

The best non-Mahomes player for either team on Sunday very well could be tight end Brock Bowers. Now past a knee injury, the third-year man starred in his 2026 debut and is being utilized exactly how some anticipated in a Kubiak offense. He's virtually impossible to stop, but luckily for the Chiefs, the Raiders have an unassuming cast of characters beyond him as far as skill-position players are concerned.

Bowers game 1 with Kubiak vs. JSN's last game with Kubiak https://t.co/bNy08Qxj73 pic.twitter.com/kIQMhvvSgi
— Ian Kenyon (@ikenyonFB) September 28, 2026

No. 6 overall 2025 NFL Draft pick Ashton Jeanty looked destined for a breakout when he had 147 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1, but he's mustered just 3.3 yards per touch with zero scores since then. According to SumerSports, his 30.16% success rate ranks 34th out of 36 running backs with 25 or more carries in 2026.

Two things could be working against the Raiders, evidenced by NFL Pro. Cousins owns a tremendous 78.8% completion clip and nets 9.5 yards per attempt against single-high coverage, but the Chiefs cede the third-lowest figures when operating in such a shell. Jeanty also has a 25.4% stuffed run rate; Kansas City has met someone in the backfield just over half the time — a top-three percentage in the sport.

The Raiders are in the middle of the pack in neutral pass frequency and, via nfelo, have a -2.6% pass rate over expected. Stopping Jeanty and forcing everything to fall on Cousins' shoulders might be the play in Week 4. Physical cornerbacks like Mansoor Delane, Nohl Williams and L'Jarius Sneed might be tailor-made for this matchup.

How special are the special teams?

Again, having taken over so many drives due to turnovers makes some of the Raiders' rankings look better than they really are, but this remains a nice special teams collective nonetheless. Las Vegas is in the top two in average starting field position on both sides of the ball and has the 11th-ranked Pro Football Focus special teams grade to date.

Joe DeCamillis' group sits fourth in special teams EPA with 7.70, influenced by a league-leading 30.4 yards per kickoff return and a healthy 16 yards per punt bring-back. The Raiders' 47.2 net yards per punt checks in behind only the Chiefs at 47.6.

The state of the Chiefs' special teams group is murky at best. Coordinator Dave Toub believes there needs to be a greater sample before drawing any firm conclusions. Punter Matt Araiza is doing a great job and kicker Harrison Butker can be counted on in game-winning situations, but everything else remains a work in progress.

Chiefs Week 4 confidence meter: 7.1

Let's be clear here: Las Vegas deserves a massive tip of the cap for what it's done thus far. Kubiak is forming an excellent culture, and all of this growth is taking place with the presumed future face of the franchise (quarterback Fernando Mendoza) watching from the sideline. The floor for this organization appears to have been raised by a significant degree.

It's the ceiling and longevity that remain in flux. Talent-wise, this is definitely one of the lesser teams in the NFL. Cousins is also playing out of his mind to kick off his 15th campaign. What happens if his internal clock is sped up, Jeanty still can't get going and the defense isn't forcing multiple turnovers each week? Those questions give this writer pause about predicting a Raiders win in Week 4.

Anything can happen, and home-field advantage certainly should matter in the desert for the first time in a while. It wouldn't serve as a complete shock if the Raiders found a way to scrape by with a win and sent a statement to the rest of the conference in the process.

It'd likely have more to do with the Chiefs shooting themselves in the foot than the opposition flat-out being better, however.

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