Cowboys-Lions Thursday Night Football showdown must-win for playoff hopes

Thursday Night Football brings us an important NFC matchup with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Detroit Lions.

Both teams are currently in the hunt for a playoff spot, with Detroit sitting at the number eight spot and Dallas at number nine. Each has the odds stacked against them in a highly competitive conference, but a loss on Thursday would be devastating to either franchise’s shot of making the postseason.

MORE: Dak Prescott raves about Brian Schottenheimer’s emotional leadership on Hard Knocks

According to Jori Epstein, the Lions have a 30 percent chance of making the postseason right now. A win over Dallas gives them a 45 percent chance while a loss drops that down to just 12 percent.

Dallas is a little behind the Lions with a 23 percent chance. A win moves that percentage to 41 while a loss drops them to single digits at nine percent.

How much could Cowboys-Lions TNF influence playoff picture?

Lions jump from 30 to 45% chance at playoffs with win, per The Athletic playoff simulator. They fall to 12% chance with loss.

Cowboys jump from 23 to 41% chance with win. They fall to 9% chance with loss.
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) December 3, 2025

Mathematically, neither team would be out of the race with a loss this week. That said, those percentages will be hard to overcome with only four games remaining on the schedule. That essentially makes this a must-win for both teams, which heightens the drama for the midweek matchup.

Cowboys-Lions rivalry has been heated in recent years

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff signals at the line during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys. | Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

This is the third time in as many years Dallas and Detroit have squared off.

In 2023, the Cowboys won 20-19 in controversial fashion. The Lions pulled to within one point in the final minutes and attempted a two-point conversion.

MORE: Dallas Cowboys have unexpected X-factor named for final playoff push

Detroit has multiple offensive linemen approach the official in an attempt to confuse Dallas as to who was reporting as eligible. That confused the refs and was the start of multiple penalties and an eventual stop.

The Lions were angered over the loss and took out their aggression on the Cowboys in 2024, winning 47-9.

This time, the Cowboys need to come out with more energy than they did last year, especially with so much at stake.

— Sign up for the Cowboys Daily Digest newsletter for more free coverage from Dallas Cowboys on SI —

Cowboys-Lions opening Week 14 odds continue underestimating Dallas

Cowboys down two key players in initial injury report for Week 14 vs Lions

Dak Prescott's NFL MVP odds skyrocket amid Cowboys' 3-game surge

Matt Eberflus has been true catalyst behind Cowboys’ 3-game surge

Cowboys' latest roster move could be bad sign for fan-favorite rookie

PHOTOS: Meet McKenna Gehrke, viral Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader