Breaking Down Patriots Path to No. 1 Seed

The New England Patriots are in the driver’s seat in the AFC East. But if they want the conference’s top seed, they’ll need a little scoreboard luck.

New England officially punched its playoff ticket last week with a statement win over the Ravens, locking up a postseason berth for the first time in four years. That’s a big milestone; but this team isn’t stopping at just getting in the door.

After missing a golden opportunity in Week 15 with a loss to the Bills, the Pats get another swing at the division crown in Week 17. Sitting at 12–3, they’re very much alive in the AFC’s No. 1 seed race, though that path isn’t fully in their control.

With the regular season heading into crunch time, here’s how the Patriots can clinch the AFC East in Week 17. And what needs to break their way to climb into the top seed conversation?

How a Patriots Loss Hands Control to the Bills

Dec 21, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; New England Patriots halfback Drake Maye (10) runs the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half of the game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images | James Lang-Imagn Images

The Broncos’ recent takedown of the Chiefs locked the Patriots into chase mode at the top of the AFC. Denver now sits in front of New England in the standings and owns the all-important common-opponents tiebreaker. Meaning even if both teams finish 13–3, the No. 1 seed still runs through Mile High.

For the Pats, the Week 17 mission is pretty straightforward. Handle business against the three-win Jets, and they’re in pole position in the AFC East heading into the final week. Beat New York, then take care of the Dolphins in Week 18, and the division crown is theirs.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor, New England’s division odds would tick up from 83% to 85% if both the Patriots and Bills take care of business this week.

But here’s where the math gets ugly. If the Patriots stumble and Buffalo wins, New England loses control of its own destiny in the AFC East for the first time since October. In that scenario, the Bills would only need a Week 18 win over the Jets to clinch the division, thanks to the conference-record tiebreaker. The Pats’ division odds would nosedive to just 10%.

Now for the chaos scenario: if both the Patriots and Bills lose this week, New England still stays in the driver’s seat. In fact, their odds to win the division would increase to 86%, per The Athletic’s model.

As for the AFC’s top seed? The path is narrow. The Patriots must win this week, win again in Week 18. And get a big assist from the Chargers by knocking off Denver. One loss to the Jets, though, and New England is officially out of the No. 1 seed conversation.

Make sure you bookmark New England Patriots on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns, and so much more!