Three Reasons Patriots Can Knock Off Texans

The New England Patriots are welcoming in the Houston Texans for the second of two AFC Divisional games this weekend, and on paper, it's likely to be low-scoring.

The Texans' defense boasts historic numbers across the board, whether it's their ability to get after the passer and clog up running lanes, or turning the ball over and limiting downfield passing attacks. Should the Patriots want to beat what head coach Mike Vrabel called the best defense the team has seen all season, there's a few things to keep an eye out for come kickoff.

But the Patriots are currently favored to win at home, and there's good reason for that. New England is not a team of slouches, though some who pick fun at the weak schedule might have you believe. Here's a couple reasons why the Patriots can pull out their second win of these playoffs against Houston.

1. Christian Gonzalez vs ... Who?

Dec 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) is introduced before playing against the Las Vegas Raiders at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The biggest storyline heading into the game is the health of two star players -- New England cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Houston wideout Nico Collins. If both were healthy, they would be matched up against each other all game.

But they're not. Gonzalez, who left the Patriots' 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers early with a head injury, had been sporting a red, non-contact jersey during practices this week. Collins, on the other hand, hasn't suited up once and has been ruled out for the game.

So while Gonzalez will likely play, who will he cover? Christian Kirk had 144 yards in the Texans' Wild Card victory over Pittsburgh last week, but he plays more out of the slot (Marcus Jones will certainly be one to defend him). The Texans' rookie duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are solid, but will they be able to truly make a difference against the former All-Pro corner?

Time will tell. The Patriots will have the upper hand without Collins on the field.

2. Patriots WRs Beat Man Coverage

Jan 4, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs (8) runs after the catch against against the Miami Dolphins during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots' wide receiver have been great against man coverage this season. Kayshon Boutte has transformed himself into a really productive deep ball threat, while Stefon Diggs has opened up lanes underneath.

Last season, in Drake Maye's first-career start, he connected with Boutte on a long touchdown to close the first half. That play from Boutte, the first scoring throw of Maye's career, beat Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. down the sideline. It's something to monitor in the 2025 matchup.

Maye's deep-ball ability, as well as the strength of the Patriots to win 1-on-1 matchups along the perimeter, can open up the field. More importantly, it can help take some pressure off of the Patriots' offensive line against Houston's vaunted front seven.

3. Milton Williams x Christian Barmore

Oct 19, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New England Patriots defensive end Milton Williams (97) celebrates the sack of Tennessee Titans quarterback Cameron Ward (1) with defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The pass rushers of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter grab all the attention. For New England, their pair of defensive linemen have been equally as dominant in their own right.

Milton Williams -- who's the lone Patriots player who was playing this deep into the playoffs at this point last year -- recorded a pair of sacks in the Chargers win. Christian Barmore has found a niche as the team's No. 2 defensive tackle, and always seems to play at a higher frequency when his running mate is lined up next to him.

Houston's interior offensive line has a familiar face in the middle. Center Jake Andrews was drafted by New England in 2023, and played a good amount of football when he was in a Patriots uniform. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks 23rd out of 40 NFL centers with a 62.3 grade on the year. They'll need to create constant pressure to make Texans quarterback CJ Stroud feel uneasy.

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