Can the Seahawks win the NFC West? Playoff predictor reveals chances

The Seahawks have an uphill battle to take the division crown this year.

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Going into Sunday's matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks had a 34% chance to win the NFC West, per The Athletic. If the Seahawks had won that game, their odds would have jumped up to 61%. Now a full game back in the division race with a head-to-head loss to the 8-2 Rams, the Seahawks have only a 16% chance at hosting a playoff game come January.

Going into Week 12, the Seahawks have just a 16% chance to win the NFC West despite a 91% chance of making the playoffs. | The Athletic

The Seahawks have three remaning home games, versus the Vikings, Colts, and Rams, and four remaining away games, versus the Titans, Falcons, Panthers, and 49ers. Seattle essentially has to win the home rematch versus LA, where a win boosts their chances to win the division up to 30% and a loss drops it to 3%.

Week	Home/Away	Opponent	Division Odds with Win (%)
12	Away	Titans	18%
13	Home	Vikings	18%
14	Away	Falcons	20%
15	Home	Colts	21%
16	Home	Rams	30%
17	Away	Panthers	20%
18	Away	49ers	26%

Since Seattle's odds are slim to none with a loss at home to the Rams, let's suppose they win that game. In that case, Week 18 may decide the NFC West winner, as the Seahawks would have basically a coin flip's odds at the division should they beat the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers tight end Jake Tonges catches the game-winning touchdown over Seattle Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen in Week 1. | Fox News

Let's explore another case. By DVOA, the Seahawks' easiest remaining games are against the Titans (32nd), Panthers (26th), Vikings (23rd), and Falcons (18th). Suppose Seattle goes 4-0 against these opponents. Winning all four of those games only increases their chance to win the division to 30%, the same as winning the one single game versus the Rams.

The Seahawks' chances to win the NFC West in remaining high leverage games if they win all four of their easiest remaining matchups. | The Athletic

Even if they go undefeated the rest of the season, the Seahawks only have an 84% chance to win the NFC West, not 100%. If there's one game they can afford to lose, it's Week 15 at home against the Colts. In such a scenario where they finish 13-4 with a loss to the Colts, Seattle still has better odds than not to finish on top in the division.

Seattle Seahawks pass rusher Darrell Taylor sacks Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz in a 28-16 road win to open the 2021 season. | Seattle Seahawks

Because the Rams are yet to face the Cardinals this season and the Seahawks and Rams both have a loss to the 49ers, Seattle can finish with a better division record than LA if 1) they beat the Rams and 49ers, and 2) the Cardinals win at least one of their two games versus the Rams.

Otherwise, the Seahawks path to winning the NFC West necessitates the Rams losing at least one of their non-Seahawks games. For every game that Seattle loses, another Rams loss is needed in order to secure the division.

The Rams' chances to win the NFC West in their remaining games if they lose to the Seahawks in Week 16. | The Athletic

Fortunately for Seattle, the Rams are still yet to face both the Buccaneers and Lions, who rank 13th and 4th by DVOA, respectively.

The Seahawks' hopes at the NFC West crown in 2025 are dwindling, but not gone yet. If things break in their favor, they can still host a playoff game in January for the first time since the 2020 season. It all starts with taking care of business versus the Titans and hoping for a win by the underdog Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football, who currently have a 26% chance of beating the Rams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton scores a game-winning touchdown against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick in a 16-13 win on Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022. | Dirk Shadd | Tampa Bay Times

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