Analyst makes case for and against Sam Darnold as MVP

Can Sam Darnold win an MVP? There's an argument to be made both ways.

Nov 9, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

After the 2023 season, Sam Darnold looked like he was on his way out of the NFL. Then, he played like an MVP candidate last year. In 2025, with the Seattle Seahawks, he is a legitimate MVP candidate. He's a bit of a long shot behind Drake Maye, Jonathan Taylor, and Patrick Mahomes, but he's definitely someone who will get votes.

Can he actually win it? There is an argument to be made that he can, which is a surprise given how his career went before 2024. But there's also an argument against, and the arguments for others mentioned above are also strong. One insider broke it down.

Sam Darnold's MVP case

Nov 9, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) looks to pass during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

For one thing, Sam Darnold has incredible advanced metrics. His EPA numbers are great, and he's one of the highest-graded players in PFF's database, which suggests that he's quietly been maybe the best QB in the league.

His basic stats are excellent, too. "The league's QBR leader (77.6) is averaging a ridiculous 9.9 yards per attempt. That's on track to be the highest single-season mark in the NFL this century. Seattle is averaging more than 30 points per game and is tied for the NFC lead at 7-2," Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon said.

Darnold is airing it out like few others, and he's successful at an incredible clip. He is playing the best ball of his career, and he's playing some of the best ball in the NFL this year.

The case against MVP Sam Darnold

Unfortunately, there's a good argument against Darnold, too. The steam is beginning to fade, it seems. A red-hot start last year lasted 16 games before the wheels fell entirely off, and Darnold is starting to show signs of that again.

"Darnold has now thrown interceptions in three consecutive games, and he turned it over three times despite a Week 10 victory over Arizona. He could be losing momentum," Gagnon concluded. Plus, he has to outdo the other leading candidates, which is hard to do.

Jonathan Taylor is carrying the league's best team with a nearly unprecedented level of rushing success. Drake Maye is dragging a bad offense to incredible heights atop the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is on his own in Kansas City's offense, and he has looked incredible.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford (who basically leads in most important QB stats), Justin Herbert, and Baker Mayfield also have cases to be made, which makes it a crowded room, and Darnold doesn't have a leg up on some of these players.

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