Sam Darnold turns the ball over a lot, and that’s okay

Seattle Seahawks fans are spoiled right now, in many ways. Such are the fruits of having a highly competent organization run by people who genuinely care about the final product and satisfying their customers. Since at least 2003, the franchise has been on a hot streak of fielding quality, competitive teams that peak as super bowl contenders, maintain a strong baseline, and take short, infrequent breaks to regroup.

Another way in which Seahawks have been spoiled is with the turnover-averse play of their most recent long-term franchise quarterback. Russell Wilson, during his ten years as a Seahawk, was historically good at not giving the ball to the other team. His interception rate was a meager 1.8%, which would be tied for fourth lowest in NFL history, and his 25 lost fumbles are a relative blip on the radar.

That’s just over eleven total turnovers a season, despite starting every single game except three over that span. It’s quite the high bar, and while Seattle has gotten strong quarterback play since Russell Wilson departed, no one has managed to match his ability to protect the ball. Geno Smith’s turnover rate when accounting for his higher volume of passing wasn’t that big of a dropoff, but he couldn’t entirely outrun his fourteen turnover per season average.

And then, we have Sam Darnold. With two games left in his first season in Seattle, Sam has been a turnover machine. An interception rate of 3.1%, plus five lost fumbles, has put Darnold in first place in the entire league in turnovers. And with second place Tua Tagovailoa now benched in Miami, it’s overwhelmingly likely going to hold that dubious moniker. He’s also on pace to be the first quarterback in two years to have more than 20 turnovers in a season.

Dec 18, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

And this is with Seattle asking shockingly little of him. The Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in passing attempts per game, ahead of only Baltimore. To be clear, this means that Sam Darnold leads the league in turnovers despite dropping back at a league-low rate. Unlike Geno Smith, who mostly saw an uptick in turnovers in line with his uptick in dropbacks, Darnold is giving it away despite low-volume passing.

I certainly can’t blame any Seahawk fan who starts to wonder if Darnold is the guy given this statistical improbability. His turnovers have played a role (some small, some big) in all three Seattle losses this year. And it’s just common sense that you never want to give the ball to the opposing team if you don’t have to, so I’m not going to say this is good. But consider this.

First of all, this is who Sam Darnold is on the football field. Going back to his freshman season at USC in 2016, he’s always been one to walk on the wild side with ball security. His 14 turnovers in 2016 were topped by his staggering 22 in 2017. And that’s playing for a major program that went 21-6 over his two years as a starter that could give him quality teammates.

So was it really shocking when he coughed it up 46 times in 38 starts in three years as a member of the New York Jets? Or did it an additional 22 times in 18 Carolina Panther games? Even in his belated break out season in Minnesota last year, there were 16 turnovers, two shy of the league lead. When he’s playing well, he’s still giving it away.

Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) forces a fumble from Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14). — Oct 20, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) forces a fumble from Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) in the end zone during the third quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Bottom line, this is who Sam Darnold is, and there’s every reason to believe it’s who he always will be. A high rate of giveaways is part of the Darnold experience, and any team that acquires him is signing up for it. That might not sound like a justification for it, but let’s follow this up with a question that needs to be asked.

So what?

I’m not suggesting that I like giving the ball away, or that I think it’s meaningless when evaluating a quarterback’s level of competency. But with rare exceptions, turnovers are the cost of doing business when you’re trying to put together an effective offense, and they tell you shockingly little about who the best quarterbacks are.

Consider a few data points here. The 2024 NFL season saw three quarterbacks tied for first in turnovers, with 18. Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Will Levis. Cousins had perhaps the worst season of his career and ultimately got benched, and Levis was such a disaster that his career already seems over after 21 starts. But Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, made the pro bowl, led the 4th best scoring offense, and won the division.

So, is there any kind of equivalency between these three players in terms of quality of play just because they all had the same number of turnovers? Despite matching 18s, everything else is so radically different, it’s trivially easy to identify one of these guys as great, another as mediocre, and the third as terrible. Simply, it’s all about what you do on the drives where you don’t give it away.

Jump back to 2023 and look at the top ten list. Josh Allen in second, who got MVP votes and won his division. Jalen Hurts fourth, who made the pro bowl and led a top eight offense that made the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa fifth, having his breakout season and helping Miami to eleven wins and the postseason. Mahomes seventh, in a year where he won Super Bowl MVP. Jared Goff eighth, amid a division crown and NFC title game appearance.

Indianapolis Colts safety Rodney Thomas II (25) pressures Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14). — Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Indianapolis Colts safety Rodney Thomas II (25) pressures Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

I’m just not seeing the correlation between bad quarterbacks and high turnovers. And then, consider Russell Wilson. In 2021, his final year as a Seahawk, he had one of his best seasons ever in terms of avoiding turnovers, with 7 in 14 starts. Despite this, the team was clearly not happy with him, the fanbase was clearly beginning to wonder about his franchise quarterback chops, and the offense simply couldn’t score reliably.

One year prior, Russ averaged more than one turnover a game (rare for him over his career), with 13 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles. The Seahawks broke their franchise record for points, went 12-4 and won the division, and Wilson had 40 touchdown passes. Would he have been better if everything else had stayed the same and he just cut the turnovers in half? Sure, but quarterbacks typically do not come with an à la carte listing.

And finally, consider this. Despite everything I just said about Sam Darnold and his turnovers, the 2025 Seahawks that he plays for are on pace to finish top three in scoring and break the aforementioned franchise points record. If turnovers were that big of a deal, would such a thing even be possible? Shouldn’t an offense that gives it away this much be near the bottom of the league?

(Full disclosure, the 2025 Seahawks score non-offensive touchdowns a lot. Three defensive and four special teamers so far, which throws off the calculation. The 2020 Seahawks somehow managed to not get any, but it’s worth pointing out that 2020 was the COVID season which was notorious for featuring incompetent defensive play that resulted in record-breaking scoring binges across the NFL. Seattle’s record breaking offense finished 8th that year.)

When a team has the ball, there are three likely outcomes to the drive. They can score a touchdown, they can kick a field goal, or they can fail to get points. Ultimately, the focus of an offense, and therefore a quarterback, is to maximize the first and second outcomes. How exactly the third outcome is achieved is of minor importance in the grand scheme. Punts, interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, failed fourth downs, or anything else.

And the way a team maximizes their touchdown and field goal opportunities is often by having a quarterback who is liberated to let it fly and take risks. Occasionally, you get a unicorn season from a superstar, like Josh Allen in 2024, who does it all, but Darnold is not a superstar. A superstar would never have been allowed to leave Minnesota and would have cost much more.

So next time Sam Darnold turns it over (and you should definitely expect him to do it a few more times this year), try to keep things in perspective. As long as the points keep flowing, this team is still likely to beat most teams they come up against. And that’s what matters.

Nov 16, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pressured by Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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