The Texans' Floor and Ceiling After NFL Schedule Release

The Houston Texans' 2026 schedule has arrived, meaning between now and the start of Week 1 in September, predictions will be flying around as to how this year could transpire for this group after a busy offseason of tweaks on both ends of the ball.

The Texans' offseason work would tell you that there's a good chance they finish with better than the 12-5 record they logged in 2025, especially if they start the year stronger than they did with their previously brutal 0-3 start.

But how high might the Texans' ceiling be for wins throughout their upcoming 17-game slate? And what could their floor be for wins if their offseason changes turn out ineffective?

Let's break down how great (or poorly) the Texans' record could be in 2026:

Ceiling: 14-3

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts to a penally call against the Texans during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Texans have a great opportunity to start their schedule off hot in the seven weeks that sit before their bye. They'll be at home for a majority of those matchups, and facing five teams who didn't make the postseason in 2025.

Their biggest challenge of that pre-bye slate might come in Week 6 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars when they'll be tasked with traveling overseas to London. But if they could come out of their Week 7 game against the New York Giants at 6-1, they'll be in a stellar position.

From Weeks 9 to 12, the Texans are tasked with the LA Chargers with a week of added rest, the Cleveland Browns, a short week at home vs. the Indianapolis Colts, and face the Baltimore Ravens off a mini-bye from that TNF game. That could very well be a 4-0 stretch for Houston.

Then comes the Texans' most challenging stretch of the year from Weeks 13 to 17. It wouldn't be a surprise if they dropped a couple of games to tough matchups like the Philadelphia Eagles on the road or the Green Bay Packers in January.

But even when factoring those late-season challenges in, a ceiling of 14-3 is well attainable, and that might be selling this ceiling short.

Floor: 9-8

Oct 5, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts after running for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images | Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

To a bit of a surprise, the Texans' projected win-total headed into next season sits at 9.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook), so it might be a bit too bullish to assume its a shoo-in for Houston to log double-digit wins in the books once again.

Nine wins though, would be pretty rock-bottom for this roster when factoring in their talent on both ends of the ball.

In the event 9-8 were to unravel, the Texans would likely have to drop one of their first two games to the Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals at home, as well as go 1-1 in their next two vs. the Indianapolis Colts on the road and the Dallas Cowboys.

Houston could still get into the bye week with a winning record of 4-3, and end their Week 9 through 11 stretch with a positive 2-1 slate as well.

But even at 6-4 with seven weeks to go, the Texans could split their back-to-back AFC North games vs. the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, could do the same in Weeks 15 and 16, and drop both of their Eagles and Packers showdowns to then fall at 9-8 by the end of the year.

On the surface, something would have to go terribly wrong for the Texans to have a worse finish than their 12 wins in 2025. But if the injury bug ends up ravaging this group, or the offense completely falls on its face, there's a very slim chance they struggle to get above .500.

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