Supercomputer Predicts Final Champions League Table After Record-Breaking Matchday 2

We’re only two games into the new Champions League season, and we have already had a record-breaking level of excitement.

Matchday two saw a total of 78 goals scored, completely shattering the previous record of 71 strikes from the third round of action in 2025–26. No fewer than 11 teams ended their games with three goals, four managed to reach four and we even had two teams celebrating six times each.

Now at the quarterway mark of the league phase, we’re starting to get a good idea of what the final standings are going to look like. Eight teams are going to fly through to the knockouts, with 16 entering the playoffs and 12 destined for early exits.

Here’s how the Opta supercomputer sees it all unfolding.

Supercomputer Predicts Final 2026–27 League Phase Table

Pedri, Lamine Yamal — Barcelona had to dig deep against Galatasaray. | Ferda Demir/Getty Images

Top Eight

Position	Club	Expected Points
1.	Arsenal	18.07
2.	Real Madrid	17.28
3.	Barcelona	16.92
4.	Liverpool	16.79
5.	PSG	16.61
6.	Bayern Munich	15.57
7.	Aston Villa	15.27
8.	Man City	14.93

It’s Arsenal who retain top spot in the predicted rankings as the only team backed to break 18 points from their eight matches.

The Gunners are a perfect two-for-two after putting three unanswered goals past Lille but have far tougher tests on the horizon, including meetings with Bayern Munich and Real Madrid that will really prove which team deserves to end on top.

Real Madrid currently sit eighth after two games but are another with a perfect record. They have navigated two of their toughest fixtures already, with Wednesday’s nervous 4–3 comeback against Roma clearly inspiring enough confidence that they will qualify with ease.

That Madrid are expected to finish one place ahead of Barcelona will be music to José Mourinho’s ears. Working against the La Liga leaders is a tough run of fixtures that includes games against Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa and Manchester City, but qualification is still not expected to be a problem.

Liverpool are flying high in Europe after a 6–3 win over LASK continued their perfect start. Fourth place is on the cards for Andoni Iraola’s side and, given their mixed domestic form, you can’t help but feel as though the Reds would gleefully take that.

Reigning champions PSG currently lead the table after a statement victory over Man City, but there appears to be some questions about their ability to navigate games against Barcelona, Aston Villa, Roma and Galatasaray, leaving them down in fifth in the predictions.

After the first round of fixtures, Bayern Munich were backed to finish second, but a shocking 3–3 draw against Viking and an imminent suspension for Michael Olise ahead of a visit from Arsenal has done the Bundesliga champions no favors.

Narrowly behind Bayern are Aston Villa, the second team to bag six this week, while Manchester City appear set for a battle for automatic qualification after falling to PSG. Barcelona and Napoli are among those still on the agenda for Enzo Maresca’s side, who cannot afford many more slip-ups.

Knockout Phase Playoffs

Bruno Fernandes — Man Utd are heading in the wrong direction. | Alvaro Medranda/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Position	Club	Expected Points
9.	Sporting CP	14.72
10.	Stuttgart	14.04
11.	Real Betis	13.74
12.	Atlético Madrid	12.26
13.	Borussia Dortmund	12.22
14.	Man Utd	11.88
15.	Club Brugge	11.83
16.	Bodø/Glimt	11.60
17.	Inter Milan	10.46
18.	Villarreal	10.37
19.	RB Leipzig	10.29
20.	Como	10.17
21.	Roma	9.94
22.	Shakhtar Donetsk	9.88
23.	Feyenoord	9.80
24.	Lens	9.50

The next 16 places are full of both over- and under-achievers simultaneously.

Finishing so high up would be a dream for the likes of Stuttgart and Real Betis, particularly with so many big teams predicted to come in slightly below.

Atlético Madrid are still feeling the effects of their opening-round defeat to Liverpool and are expected to finish no higher than 12th, two places clear of a Manchester United side they bested 2–0 this week.

Given the way things are going for Man Utd, Michael Carrick may well take a midtable finish, particularly with just two points predicted to separate them from elimination at the wrong end of the table. January’s visit from Bayern Munich is the scariest fixture left on a calendar that also includes tricky meetings with Como, Roma, Sporting CP, RB Leipzig and Villarreal.

Bodø/Glimt have turned up for this competition once again, picking up a 1–0 victory over a Borussia Dortmund outfit backed for the unlucky spot of 13th.

Inter Milan, expected to finish 17th, could be one of the biggest threats in this group of the table—assuming they even get there. Consecutive defeats have left the Serie A side dreaming of such lofty heights.

Bottom 12

Victor Osimhen — Galatasaray need to turn things around. | Arif Hudaverdi Yaman/Anadolu/Getty Images

Position	Club	Expected Points
25.	Porto	9.40
26.	Fenerbahçe	8.97
27.	AEK Athens	8.69
28.	Viking	8.44
29.	PSV Eindhoven	8.05
30.	Napoli	7.90
31.	Lille	7.41
32.	Sabah	7.38
33.	Galatasaray	6.51
34.	LASK	5.70
35.	Slavia Prague	5.54
36.	Slovan Bratislava	4.55

It may still be early in the league phase, but alarm bells will be ringing for some massive clubs here.

Porto, Napoli, Lille, Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray will all have expected far more of their opening two games and would view immediate elimination as a disaster.

For those searching for a real underdog story to root for, Norway’s Viking FK should have caught your eye. Their 3–3 draw with Bayern Munich was nothing short of astounding, and they even lead Bodø/Glimt in the Norwegian top flight having beaten last year’s success story 5–0 back in April.

Viking still face an uphill battle to reach the playoffs but still have to play a lot of the teams currently around them in the standings. The dream is very much alive.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Winner

Jurriën Timber — Arsenal are flying high. | Shaun Brooks/CameraSport/Getty Images

Club	Chance of Winning
Arsenal	21.34%
Bayern Munich	15.60%
Man City	13.65%
Barcelona	12.59%
PSG	8.33%
Real Madrid	6.13%
Liverpool	5.86%
Aston Villa	3.40%
Man Utd	1.93%

The supercomputer has an overwhelming favorite. This could be Arsenal’s year.

Arsenal’s chances of winning may have dropped ever so slightly compared to after the first round of fixtures but, at 21.34%, are still seen as the likeliest winner by a long way. Bayern Munich are second with 15.60%.

Just two more teams are given realistic chances of winning the Champions League next May. Man City can never be ruled out, even if they are set to do things the hard way this year, while Barcelona can feel somewhat shortchanged by odds of 12.59%.

PSG face an uphill battle to retain their trophy for a third consecutive season, but Real Madrid (6.13%) and Liverpool (5.86%) will both know things have to change if they are to come good on their own slim odds of victory.

Aston Villa, at 3.40%, are staring down at Man Utd, whose odds of victory sit at just 1.93%.

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