Commanders vs. Giants Odds: Total Dropping Ahead of Thursday Night Football in Week 10

Thursday Night Football features a crucial matchup for the NFC East race, as the first-place New York Giants (5-2-1) take on Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (2-5-1) to open Week 10 of the 2026 season.

These teams tied in their first meeting of the season back in Week 5, as the Commanders and Daniels has a massive blunder in overtime, allowing the clock to run out before they could attempt a game-winning field goal.

Dan Quinn's team has dropped in the playoff odds because of that tie, and it is in danger of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Giants with a loss on Thursday. Oddsmakers have set John Harbaugh's team as a 2.5-point favorite at home with J.J. McCarthy set to make the start.

The odds for this game have moved towards New York in multiple ways with McCarthy and Cam Skattebo set to play. After the Giants opened as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday night, they are now favored by 2.5 and have much better moneyline odds to win this game. New York has shifted all the way up to -142 to win, and it would take a four-game lead over the Commanders in the division with a victory.

There has been even more movement in the odds since Wednesday, as the total in this game dropped from 41.5 to 40.5.

Commanders vs. Giants Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Commanders +2.5 (-112)
Giants -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Commanders: +120
Giants: -142

Total

40.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

It's interesting to see this line drop again when it comes to the total, as these teams both scored 27 points in their first meeting of the season. Washington has hit the OVER in half of its eight games this season while the Giants have done so in five of their eight appearances.

New York is in the driver's seat to win this division with the Dallas Cowboys (4-5) as the only other team with more than two wins. New York is also 2-0-1 in three games against division rivals this season.

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for every game in Week 10 in his Road to 272 column. OnThursday, he's eyeing New York as a home favorite to cover:

I may have included the New York Giants in last week's edition of my Fraud Rankings, but my biggest issue with them has been their strength of schedule. Will I be betting on them when they take on teams like the Jaguars and 49ers in the coming weeks? Likely not, but they once again have a game against a bad team on Thursday Night Football when they face the Washington Commanders, and much like the majority of the season, I expect them to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

These two teams played to a tie in Week 5 earlier this season, but with it being a road game for the Giants and the fact that they had Jameis Winston at quarterback, I think we can admit they're in a better spot in the rematch. J.J. McCarthy has been surprisingly solid to begin his tenure with the Giants, ranking fifth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected (+5.3%) amongst quarterbacks who have played 60+ snaps this season. It's also no coincidence that over the last three weeks, the Giants have led the league in net yards per play at +1.5.

Meanwhile, the Commanders continue to be a poorly coached team that doesn't thrive in any area, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric.

There are a ton of ways to bet on this matchup, and the SI Betting team has made some player prop selections, anytime touchdown scorer picks and more for this NFC East battle.

As of Thursday morning, DraftKings is reporting that 63 percent of the moneyline bets and 69 percent of the spread bets in this game are on the Giants while the OVER has received 65 percent of the wagers. It's possible these odds could shift again ahead of kickoff on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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