Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen Must Rebound If Diamondbacks Are to Contend
Arizona finished 2021 with the second-fewest wins (52) in the team’s 24-year history while extending their streak without a playoff berth to four seasons. They have one World Series title (2001) and five other postseason appearances.
The Diamondbacks ranked 29th in ERA (5.11). Their relievers had 22 wins, 41 losses and 22 saves with similar results in ERA (5.08 – 28th). Arizona scored 679 runs (25th), hit 144 home runs (29th) and stole 43 bases (28th).
They lost OF Kole Calhoun (TEX), RP Tyler Clippard and OF Josh Reddick to free agency. The Diamondbacks signed SP Dan Straily and RP Mark Melancon to their pitching staff. In a minor trade, Arizona acquired OF Jordan Luplow to improve their offense against left-handed pitching.
Their starting rotation doesn’t have one standout arm. SP Madison Bumgarner is no longer elite and SP Zac Gallen wasn’t the same pitcher after batting elbow and hamstring issues last year. At this point, SP Luke Weaver is more of a tease than an asset to fantasy and real baseball. The backend of their rotation has a pair of inning eaters (Merrill Kelly and Dan Straily).
Arizona added a closer, but Mark Melancon is far from being a stud. The rest of their relieving arms look messy and most jobs look to be in flux.
The Diamondbacks lack foundation middle of the order bats. They hope to build around 2B Ketel Marte, OF Dalton Varsho, 1B Seth Beer, OF Pavin Smith and 3B Josh Rojas, but most of their options are only complementary options.
Starting Lineup
1B Pavin Smith
Over three seasons in the minors, Smith hit .281 with 159 runs, 23 home runs, 148 RBI and seven steals over 1,074 at-bats. His highest level completed is AA in 2019 (.291 with 62 runs, 12 home runs and 67 RBI over 440 at-bats). Smith had a major-league approach (walk rate – 11.6 and strikeout rate – 12.2), but his bat is trailing in power.
The Diamondbacks drafted him seventh overall in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Arizona gave Smith 145 games of action in 2021, leading to below replacement level fantasy stats. His best success came in May (.306 with 17 runs, two home runs, 10 RBI and one steal over 111 at-bats). He struggled against lefties (.239 with one home run over 364 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.511) almost matched his minor-league career (1.517). Smith ranked 107th in hard-hit rate (42.7), with weakness in his launch angle (9.0 – 249th) and barrel rate (5.1 – 238th).
Fantasy Outlook
To become a starting fantasy player in 12-team formats, he needs to hit over a plus batting average with a 75/15/75 skill set. His ADP (380) makes him a bench flier with a “ride him while he’s hot” feel. In a way, Smith earned his AAA experience with the Diamondbacks. His approach and swing point to him hitting in a favorable part of the batting order.
3B Josh Rojas
Rojas showed growth in his game between AA and AAA in 2019 (.332 with 89 runs, 23 home runs, 83 RBI and 33 stolen bases over 416 at-bats). Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .288 with 212 runs, 44 home runs, 184 RBI and 72 stolen bases over 1,113 at-bats. In addition, his walk rate (11.4) offered top-of-the-order upside with a favorable strikeout rate (16.3).
In his first chance with a starting opportunity with the Diamondbacks, Rojas struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11) with a dull average hit rate (1.555). He continued to take walks (10.6%) with a below-bar strikeout rate (24.9).
Arizona gave Rojas full-time starting at-bats in May and June (.281 with 32 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBI and two stolen bases over 203 at-bats). He didn’t have over three home runs or 10 RBI in any other month.
His hard-hit rate (31.1 – 277th), barrel rate (4.8 – 248th) and launch angle (11.5 – 195th) painted a weaker home run pitcher. Rojas finished with a fly-ball rate (27.8) below his minor league resume.
Fantasy Outlook
The tease with Rojas will be his success in stolen bases in the minors while having a chance to improve his power stats. His ADP (227) in the NFBC in mid-February seems fair if given 550 at-bats. With a leadoff job, he has a chance to score over 80 runs with 15 home runs, 65 RBI and 15 steals. At this point in his career, I don’t see an edge in batting average.
2B Ketel Marte
In 2019, Marte set career-highs in at-bats (569), runs (97), home runs (32), RBI (92) and steals (10), leading to an impact season. He finished with a league average walk rate (8.4) while being tough to strike out (13.7%).
Marte ended up being a bust for fantasy owners in 2020 due to a decline in his power stats (two home runs and 17 RBI) and regression in his contact batting average (.325). He missed 10 days in September due to a left wrist injury, which was a big part of his power outage.
Last year, a hamstring injury derailed him after the first week of the season and again in late June. As a result, Marte ended up missing about 11 weeks. His season started with a .370 batting average over 135 at-bats with 24 runs, four home runs and 21 RBI. Over the final two months, he hit .283 with 28 runs, 10 home runs and 29 RBI over 205 at-bats.
Marte drilled left-handed pitching (.387 with eight home runs and 23 RBI over 106 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (48.4) ranked 40th, but his launch angle (10.3 – 219th) and barrel rate (8.9 – 130th) lacked zest. Even in his peak power season, he had a low fly-ball rate (34.8 – 32.3 in 2021).
Fantasy Outlook
When at his best, Marte has a chance to produce a high contact batting average (.387 in 2019 and .386 last year) and his average hit rate (1.676) supports more than 20 home runs. His ADP (81) is about the same as last year. If he can unlock some of his minor-league speed (109 steals over 2,103 at-bats), Marte could become a five-category player. He offers help in batting average with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 89 RBI and 10 stolen bases with a healthy season. I view him as a value in 2022.
1B Seth Beer
Beer played well over three seasons in college, leading to a .322 batting average with 172 runs, 56 home runs, 177 RBI and four steals over 647 at-bats. He had an elite walk rate (20.5) while being challenging to strike out (11.1%). Arizona selected him with the 28th pick in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Over three seasons in the minors, Beer hit .292 over 1,072 at-bats with 184 runs, 54 home runs and 204 RBI. His approach faded to closer to the league average.
Last year he suffered a dislocated left shoulder in mid-September while playing for the Diamondbacks. With Arizona, Beer had four hits in nine at-bats (four runs, one home run and three RBI).
Fantasy Outlook
The Diamondbacks should start him in the majors and his bat profiles as their cleanup hitter. His ADP (604) in the NFBC in mid-February is a misread by the high-stakes market. However, his bat is ready and Beer owns the approach to be a much better player. At a minimum, .270 with 80 runs, 25 home runs and 80 RBI. He should be drafted inside of pick 450 in 15-team formats.
C Daulton Varsho
After hitting .335 over 594 at-bats in college with 121 runs, 24 home runs, 124 RBI and 32 steals, Arizona drafted Varsho in the second round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft. He played catcher, outfield and second base.
Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .302 with 187 runs, 46 home runs, 167 RBI and 49 steals over 985 at-bats. Varsho walked 8.7% of the time with a favorable strikeout rate (16.4). His highlight season (.301 with 85 runs, 18 home runs, 58 RBI and 21 steals over 396 at-bats) came at AA in 2019.
The Diamondbacks failed to commit to Varsho over the first half of last year (9-for-62 with eight runs, three RBI and one stolen base). However, his bat played well over the final three months (.275 with 33 runs, 11 home runs, 35 RBI and five stolen bases over 222 at-bats).
He held his own against left-handed pitching (.293 with three home runs and 11 RBI over 82 at-bats). Varsho ranked 49th in launch angle (18.0), but his hard-hit rate (39.9) came in at about the league average. His approach moved above the league average.
Fantasy Outlook
Varsho was my breakout hitter of the year in 2021. For half of a season, I was on the right track. His ADP (94) in the NFBC ranks him as the fourth catcher drafted in 2022. Varsho’s stats over the second half of the year projected over 500 at-bats come to 74 runs, 25 home runs, 79 RBI and 11 steals. The Diamondbacks should have him in the lineup on most days while splitting time at C, OF and DH. Speed from the catcher position can be a massive edge. I expect Varsho to be the most valuable catcher in 2022.
1B Christian Walker
Walker has a respectable eight-season resume in the minors (.284 with 127 home runs and 488 RBI over 2,89 at-bats). He spent part of six seasons at AAA (.278 with 322 runs, 94 home runs and 346 RBI over 2,059 at-bats).
The Diamondbacks gave him starting at-bats (529) in 2019, leading to 86 runs, 29 home runs, 73 RBI and eight steals while hitting .259. He had risk in his strikeout rate (25.7) while doing a good job taking walks (11.1%).
In 2020, he was on pace for 95 runs, 19 home runs, 92 RBI, with a bump in his batting average (.271). Walker did push his approach closer to the league average (strikeout rate – 20.6 and walk rate – 7.8).
Last year he landed on the injured list twice over the first two months, leading to five missed weeks. Walker only had 25 runs, four home runs and 21 RBI over 197 at-bats at the All-Star break. His bat never round into power form over his final 204 at-bats (.265 with 30 runs, six home runs and 25 RBI).
His average hit rate (1.561) was his lowest in five seasons, along with his contact batting average (.332). Walker needs to improve against lefties (.240 with no home runs and nine RBI over 121 at-bats).
After posting a career-high HR/FB rate (20.1) in 2019, he had regression in back-to-back years (12.1 and 8.7) while gaining back some loft (fly-ball rate – 38.7).
Fantasy Outlook
Walker had an ADP of 197 in the NFBC in 2021, but his down season pushed him outside the player pool in 15-team leagues. I expect 1B Seth Beer to emerge this year, but Walker will have plenty of chances to get at-bats at DH. His key to receiving 500 at-bats is solving lefties. He has 25-plus home run power with below-average stats expected in the other four categories.
C Carson Kelly
Over the last three seasons, Kelly hit .239 over 740 at-bats with 98 runs, 36 home runs and 112 RBI.
Last year, his bat fired in April (.340 with 13 runs, six home runs and 14 RBI over 53 at-bats), but Arizona gave at-bats to Stephen Vogt and Daulton Varsho at catcher as well. He struggled over the next three months (.204/10/2/12 over 123 at-bats) while missing sometime in May with a toe injury plus a second stint on the injured list in June and July with a broken bone in his right wrist. Kelly produced only steady C2 stats over his final 46 games (.230 with 18 runs, five home runs and 20 RBI over 148 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (20.6) beat the league average while delivering an elite walk rate (12.3). Kelly was a much better player against left-handed pitching (.313 with nine home runs and 27 RBI over 112 at-bats). He also finished with the same number of walks (19) as strikeouts (19) vs. lefties. In his career in the majors, Kelly is only a .202 hitter against right-handed pitching with 19 home runs and 71 RBI over 588 at-bats.
His average hit rate (1.712) supports more than 25 home runs with 450 at-bats. He finished last season with a jump in his launch angle (18.6) and fly-ball rate (43.8), but Kelly had a poor hard-hit rate (34.0 – 246th).
Kelly hit .254 with 52 home runs and 285 RBI over 2,261 at-bats over eight seasons in the minors. He played well in three years at AAA (.278 with 17 home runs and 96 RBI over 651 at-bats) while offering a high walk rate (12.2) and a better strikeout rate (13.9).
Fantasy Outlook
The presence of Daulton Varsho does lower the outlook of Kelly. However, he will undoubtedly be in the lineup every day against left-handed pitching and Kelly should receive a minimum of 110 games behind the plate if healthy. His ADP (272) in the NFBC ranks him as the 19th catcher. I see a .250/60/15/60 player while understanding Kelly could improve with better play against righties. I wouldn’t have a problem owning both Diamondbacks catchers.
OF David Peralta
The glow in Peralta’s bat left the building over the past three seasons. Since his breakout year in 2018 (.293/75/30/97/4 over 560 at-bats), he’s hit .272 with 124 runs, 25 home runs, 154 RBI and three stolen bases over 1,072 at-bats. Unfortunately, his path over this span paints him as a 60/12/75 player with no upside in speed.
He beat his career averages in strikeout rate (17.1) and walk rate (8.6) while continuing to have strength in his RBI rate (16). Peralta finished with a five-year low in his contact batting average (.319) with another light output in his average hit rate (1.556).
After a productive April (.284 with 14 runs, three home runs and 22 RBI over 95 at-bats), he only hit .253 over his final 392 at-bats with 43 runs, five home runs and 41 RBI. Peralta only had one home run over 86 at-bats vs. lefties (.267 BAA).
His swing path led to an extremely high ground ball rate (54.9). Peralta hasn’t had a fly-ball rate (26.2 – 27.8 in his career) over 30.0 since 2014.
Fantasy Outlook
The bottom line with Peralta is that he isn’t an edge in fantasy baseball. He can hit for average while producing with runners on base. His opportunity vs. left-handed pitching is fading, suggesting a platoon role. He will be found in the free-agent pool in 12- and 15-team leagues in the NFBC based on his ADP (480) in mid-February. Peralta could very well hit higher in this lineup and he will have playable value when his bat is in rhythm.
SS Nick Ahmed
After Ahmed set career highs in at-bats (556), runs (79), hits (141), home runs (19), RBI (82) and steals (8) in 2019, he was on pace for 78 runs, 14 home runs, 78 RBI and 11 stolen bases over 537 at-bats the following season if it wasn’t cut short due to Covid-19.
With 16 games missed from 2018-20, Ahmed had the feel of a neutral player for his position in runs, home runs and RBI while also chipping in with some stolen bases. Unfortunately, in 2021, he missed 33 games with a right knee issue and a bum right shoulder.
Ahmed finished with a league-average approach (strikeout rate – 22.0 and walk rate – 7.2). His contact batting average (.291) was a five-year low after setting a new top in 2020 (.346). He continues to have a low fly-ball rate (26.2) with a further step back in his HR/FB rate (7.7 – 14.2 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook
After tricking me into believing in his counting stats due to his ability to play a high number of games, Ahmed is back in the fantasy doghouse. His ADP (608) in the NFBC puts him on the do not draft list. However, I can’t dismiss a 65/15/65/5 season with some batting average risk.
Bench Option
OF Alek Thomas
Over three seasons in the minors, Thomas hit .312 with 212 runs, 30 home runs, 141 RBI and 40 stolen bases over 1,128 at-bats. In his first experience at AAA in 2021, he hit .369 over 149 at-bats with 32 runs, eight home runs, 18 RBI and five steals.
He had strength in his contact batting average (.392, .392 and .405) in each year in the minors while pushing his average hit rate (1.787) to a new top in 2021. Thomas brings a plus walk rate (10.1) while having a favorable strikeout rate (18.9).
Arizona drafted him in the second round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Fantasy Outlook
The Diamondbacks expect Thomas to move into their centerfield position at some point in 2022. His defense grades well and his bat should continue to improve. He comes off the board at pick 588 in the early draft season in the NFBC. Thomas will help in batting average and speed and he has more power than most would believe. I wouldn’t dismiss a 20/20 year in his rookie season. He is a must-follow this spring.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Madison Bumgarner
For a mere $25 million over the past two seasons, Bumgarner went 8-14 with 5.07 ERA and 154 strikeouts over 188 innings for the Diamondbacks. His WHIP (1.239) suggested his ERA should be closer to 3.70, but weakness in his strikeout rate (7.4) and home runs allowed (1.8 per nine) ruin too many days.
Over 10 seasons with the Giants, Bumgarner went 119-92 with a 3.14 ERA and 1,784 strikeouts over 1,836 innings.
Last year, he buried fantasy teams after his first three starts (17 runs, 30 baserunners and three home runs over 13.2 innings). Bumgarner reversed the downward curve over his next five games (three runs and 15 baserunners over 30 innings with 34 strikeouts). Four starts later (18 runs, 32 baserunners and five home runs over 16 innings), the song Taps played in the background as fantasy managers dumped him into the free-agent pool and Arizona placed him on the injured list for six weeks with a left shoulder injury.
After the All-Star break, Bumgarner flashed again over seven starts (1.93 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and .216 BAA over 46.2 innings with 31 strikeouts). Unfortunately, his season ended with more misery (6.30 ERA, 1.400 WHIP and 10 home runs over 40 innings).
His average fastball (90.5) had more life than 2020 (88.3) while being well below his peak in 2014 (92.8). Batters struggled to hit his curveball (.231 BAA) and four-seamer (.199 BAA). However, Bumgarner lost the feel of his cutter (.259 BAA – nine home runs) and his low-volume changeup (.296 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Most fantasy managers will stay clear of Bumgarner this year. His shoulder woes were a significant part of his demise, with no correction made via surgery. His ADP (454) in the NFBC is in an area where there is a minimal fight for his arm. The career good outweighs the short-term failure, but regaining two MPH on his fastball seems like a tall task. Bumgarner has won only 27 of his last 107 starts. He needs an extremely short leash. Any investment in him should come with a bump in strikeouts and fewer balls landing in the seats.
SP Zac Gallen
Gallen pitched well over three levels in 2017 (2.93 ERA), but his arm regressed the next season at AAA (3.65 ERA and 1.470 WHIP). His failure came from a high batting average against (.281) and a pullback in his walk rate (3.2).
In 2019, he blossomed at AAA (9-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 91.1 innings). Gallen set a career-best in his walk rate (1.7) and strikeout rate (11.0). Over 15 starts in the majors, he went 3-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 80 innings. His strikeout rate (10.8) held value while struggling to throw strikes (4.3 walk rate). In 2020, Gallen almost repeated his rookie season (2.75 ERA and 82 strikeouts over 72 innings)
A week before the start of last season, Gallen suffered a hairline fracture to his right forearm, leading to him free-falling in drafts in the high-stakes market. Instead, he ended up only missing the first two weeks of the year.
After five starts, Gallen posted a 3.04 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 26.1 innings despite walking 14 batters. His elbow issue flared up again in early May, costing him almost the next six weeks. He battled home runs over his final 18 starts (18 over 94.2 innings), leading to a 4.66 ERA, 1.320 WHIP and 107 strikeouts. Gallen walked 3.3 batters per nine innings over this span. He also missed two weeks in early July with a hamstring injury.
Gallen faded against lefties (.252 BAA), but right-handed batters took him deep 14 times over 221 at-bats. His average fastball (93.4) inched higher for the second season. Batters had a challenging time hitting their four-seamer (.220 BAA), changeup (.232 BAA), slider (.225 BAA) and curveball (.203 BAA). Last season, he added a low-volume cutter (.407 BAA) that still needs work.
Fantasy Outlook
For Gallen to deliver SP2 value at a minimum, he needs to throw more strikes to lower his WHIP risk (1.226 with Arizona). His ADP (135) in the NFBC gives him upside if Gallen is past his elbow issue. However, the increase in home runs allowed (1.4 per nine) could be a red flag to another injury. The drawing card with his arm is the edge in strikeouts and a possible sub 3.00 ERA.
SP Luke Weaver
Heading into 2018, Weaver had an exceptional resume in the minors (25-11 with a 2.03 ERA and 275 strikeouts over 279.1 innings). He went 6-3 at AA with a 1.40 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 77 innings in 2016. The following year at AAA, Weaver finished with an 11-2 record with a 2.46 ERA and 87 strikeouts over 87.2 innings). In the minors, he had elite command (walk rate – 1.7) with strength in his strikeout rate (8.9).
Unfortunately, Weaver struggled over the past four seasons with the Diamondbacks (15-29 with a 4.66 ERA and 307 strikeouts over 318.1 innings). He finished last year with a 2.75 ERA and 33 strikeouts over his final 36 innings. However, Weaver lost his strikeout ability (17 over 102 at-bats) against lefties.
His average fastball (93.7) was a four-year low. Batters rarely squared up his four-seamer (.213 BAA) and his two show-me pitches (cutter – .111 BAA and curveball – .143 BAA). Weaver had regression with his changeup (.267 BAA – .243 in his career).
In mid-May, a right shoulder injury led to three-and-a-half months on the injured list.
Fantasy Outlook
Innings pitched has been a problem for Weaver in his time in the majors. His peak output came in 2018 (136.1 innings). Over the past three years, he pitched fewer than 66 innings each season. His ADP (468) puts Weaver in the flier range based on his walk rate (2.9) and strikeout rate (9.2) in his career. His downside comes from 21 home runs allowed over his last 117.2 innings. Tempting for a short-term ride but staying healthy remains a significant hurdle.
SP Merrill Kelly
Kelly pitched well over his first five starts (2.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 31.1 innings) in 2020. Then, he developed a blood clot in his right shoulder in late August that led to thoracic outlet syndrome. Matt Harvey had a similar surgery in 2016 and he never regained his form.
Last year he struggled over his first three starts (15 runs, 27 baserunners and four home runs over 14 innings) before settling down over his next 41.2 innings (3.46 ERA, .242 BAA and 42 strikeouts). Kelly went 5-4 over his next 84.2 innings with 3.93 ERA and 66 strikeouts. A battle with Covid-19 led to six weeks on the injured list and struggles over his final three contests (10 runs, 28 baserunners and three home runs over 15.2 innings).
His walk rate (2.3) remains favorable, with a sliding strikeout rate (7.4). In his time with Arizona, he allowed 55 home runs over 372.2 innings (1.3 per nine).
His average fastball (91.7) was a career-low. Kelly offered a plus curveball (.217 BAA) with up-and-down success with his cutter (.250 BAA) and changeup (.245). Batters handled his four-seamer (.290 BAA) and sinker (.306 BAA).
Kelly pitched well in his five seasons in the minors (39-26 with a 3.40 ERA and 379 strikeouts over 527.1 innings), but he had a high walk rate (3.3) and a low strikeout rate (6.5).
His lack of progression to the majors led to him taking his ball to Korea for four seasons (48-32 with a 3.86 ERA and 641 strikeouts over 729.2 innings), highlighted by his 2017 season (16-7 with 3.60 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 190 innings).
Fantasy Outlook
Kelly is a backend inning eater for a poor team at this point in his career. His inability against right-handed batters (.268 BAA) makes him an avoid for me. Fantasy managers can find him on the waiver wire in the NFBC based on his early ADP (481).
SP Dan Straily
After two respectable years in 2016 and 2017 (24-17 with a 4.01 ERA and 332 strikeouts over 373 innings) in the majors, Straily pitched his way out of the league over his next two seasons (5.72 ERA).
In 2020 and 2021, he went 25-16 with a 3.22 ERA and 369 strikeouts over 360.1 innings in Korea. The Diamondbacks signed him to a minor-league deal in February.
Earlier in his career, Straily offered a low-90s fastball. He threw a slider (.206 BAA) as his second-best pitch, followed by a changeup (.232 BAA) and curveball (.204 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
His overseas stats look tempting, but pitching back in the United States will test his confidence. Straily is just another backend inning eater with downside risk. His ADP (645) puts him in the back room on draft day until he raises his hand for attention on the mound.
SP Caleb Smith
A battle with Covid led to Smith only five appearances in 2020 while never building up his arm strength. He walked 12 batters over 14 innings.
Last year Smith failed to win a starting job for the Diamondbacks last March. After 19 relief appearances (3.27 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 33 innings), Arizona gave him 12 starts (6.83 ERA), but he served up 13 home runs with too many walks (37 over 54 innings). A trip back to the bullpen revived his arm (2.70 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 26.2 innings).
His average fastball (91.4) was a career-low. Batters struggled to hit all four of his pitched (four-seamer – .234 BAA, slider – .193 BAA, changeup – .227 BAA and curveball – .200 BAA), but each option ended up in the seats more than once.
Smith continues to be an extreme fly-ball pitcher (52.0%).
Fantasy Outlook
If the fences were moved back 10 feet and the strike zone was increased by four inches, Smith might be a star. His strikeout ability invites intrigue, but the disaster innings via home runs and free passes leave dents in fantasy teams’ ERA and WHIP. Nevertheless, he is worth a dart if Smith earns a starting job and shows a pulse on the mound.
SP Corbin Martin
The Astros drafted Martin in the second round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft after an unimpressive career at Texas A&M (11-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 149 strikeouts over 132.1 innings).
His arm played better in the minors (11-4 with a 2.58 ERA and 210 strikeouts over 192 innings) over three seasons. Martin pitched well at AA in 2018 (7-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 103 innings) while having similar AAA success in 2019 (3.13 ERA with 45 strikeouts over 37.1 innings).
Houston called him up that season, but he struggled over five starts (5.59 ERA) before blowing out his right elbow that required TJ surgery in early July (2019).
Last year, Martin struggled over his 43.1 innings between AAA (5.93 ERA) and the majors (10.69 ERA) due to walks (13) and home runs (12).
His average fastball came in at 94.0 MPH while working off a slider, changeup and curveball combination of secondary pitches.
Fantasy Outlook
Martin has a lot to prove, so any interest starts with effective innings at AAA. His ADP (729) leaves him miles away from fantasy rosters.
SP Tyler Gilbert
Gilbert worked his way through the minors for five seasons as a reliever (3.36 ERA, 317 strikeouts and 10 saves over 351 innings). Arizona moved him to the starting rotation at AAA last year. He went 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 50 strikeouts over 52.1 innings.
In his first chance in the majors at 28, Gilbert posted a 3.15 ERA over 40 innings with 25 strikeouts. Batters only hit .200 against him, but he struggled to strike out batters (5.6 per nine). Gilbert threw a complete game no-hit shutout in his first start with the Diamondbacks.
His average fastball (89.9) is well below league average. He threw a cutter (.200 BAA) as his top pitch while also offering a curveball (.111 BAA) and changeup (.077 BAA). Gilbert ended the year with a sore left elbow.
Fantasy Outlook
Arizona should sign another free agent arm after the lockout. Gilbert has a decent arm, but he is only a bridge player if the Diamondbacks award him with a starting job early in the year.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Mark Melancon
Over the last two seasons with the Braves, Melancon went 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 38 strikeouts while converting 22 of his 24 saves. The move to San Diego led to him leading the National League in saves (39).
Melancon pitched well over his first 46 innings (1.96 ERA, 39 strikeouts and 33 saves) while blowing the lead in four games. However, he finished with some regression over his next 18.2 innings of work (2.89 ERA, .278 BAA and 20 strikeouts). His walk rate (3.5) was his highest since 2009.
Right-handed batters hit .285 against him.
He features a cutter (.243 BAA) as his top pitch as far as usage (61.9%), which came in 92.0 MPH. His curveball (.167 BAA) grades well.
Melancon went 11-6 over his last 154.2 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 141 strikeouts and 62 saves.
Fantasy Outlook
Earning saves will come at a slower pace in Arizona. Melancon lacks dominance, but he has plenty of experience (244 career saves). His ADP (140) in the NFBC priced him as the 12th closer off the board in mid-February. If Arizona pushes their win total to 60 games, Melancon may have a ceiling of 25 saves with a 3.00 ERA and minimal help in strikeouts.
RP Ryan Nelson
Nelson came out of college with a 4.25 ERA over 101.2 innings with 158 strikeouts. However, his lack of command (5.7 walks per nine) led to him sliding to the second round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Over his first two seasons in the minors, he went 7-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 135 innings. Nelson handled himself well at AA (3.51 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 77 innings), putting him on a path to start at AAA this year. His walk rate (3.1) showed growth, but Nelson did battle home runs at AA (1.5 per nine).
His fastball has high-90s upside while working off a slider, curveball and changeup.
Fantasy Outlook
If Arizona wants to beef up the velocity of their late-inning arms, Nelson should be in the mix. His arm continues to improve and batters swing and miss at many of his pitches. He will also be a treat to emerge as a starter sometime in 2022.
RP Taylor Widener
Widener came through the minors as a starter. From 2017-19, over 75 starts, he posted a 4.47 ERA and 414 strikeouts over 356.2 innings. His risk comes from poor command (3.4 walks per nine).
Arizona gave him 13 starts last season, but Widener allowed 13 home runs over 61 innings, leading to a 4.28 ERA and 64 strikeouts. He missed time in May, June and July with a groin issue. In September, Widener allowed five runs and 17 baserunners over 9.1 innings with nine strikeouts as a reliever.
His average fastball (92.7) came in below the league average. Widener offered an edge with his slider (.228 BAA) and changeup (.174 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
At this point, he doesn’t look closer-worthy, but minor league strikeout ability does give up upside if Widener figures out how to throw more strikes.
More fantasy baseball coverage:
- AL EAST: Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
- AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
- AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
- NL EAST: Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals
- NL CENTRAL: Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals
