Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado Look to Make Padres a Playoff Contender
The Padres looked on the verge of being contenders to knock off the Dodgers in the NL West coming into last year. They ended their 13-year playoff drought in 2020 when San Diego lost in the National League Division Series (3-0). On Aug. 10 last season, the Padres were 18 games above .500 with a 67-49 record (6.5 games out of first place). However, they went 12-34 over their final 46 contests to drop 28 games off the pace. San Diego lost in both of their trips to the World Series (1984 and 1998), with four other appearances in the postseason in the team’s 53-year history.
They finished 14th in ERA (4.10) while ranking better in the bullpen (3.62 ERA – fifth). Their relievers won 43 games with 31 losses and 43 saves. San Diego scored 729 runs (14th), hit 180 home runs (23rd) and stole 110 bases (second).
The Padres signed OF Nomar Mazara, SP Nick Martinez, RP Luis Garcia and RP Robert Suarez in the offseason. In addition, they acquired C Jorge Alfaro in a deal with the Marlins for a player to be named later. San Diego lost OF Tommy Pham, RP Mark Melancon (ARI), RP Daniel Hudson (LAD), RP Keone Kela and SP Jake Arrieta to free agency.
The prospect of the Padres rostering multiple aces in their starting rotation looked promising last season. Unfortunately, only SP Joe Musgrove pitched well while SPs Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddock failed to meet expectations. In 2022, SP Mike Clevinger should improve their pitching depth.
San Diego has an opening for their closing job. The winning arm could come from multiple options on their roster or free agency. Unfortunately, the Padres lack difference-maker relievers in mid-February.
Last year, the Padres looked like a developing offense, but they only have two impact bats – SS Fernando Tatis and 3B Manny Machado. San Diego needs a foundation middle-of-the-order bat and a rebound in power from their underachieving players to push higher in the offensive standings.
The giddiness of this team magically disappeared with each loss late in 2021. However, the starting point in pitching and hitting looks higher than what the Giants had in 2021, so the Padres may very well make the postseason in 2022.
Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
OF Trent Grisham
Grisham underperformed his first-round pedigree (2015) from 2016-18 in the minors, when he hit .228 with 140 runs, 17 home runs, 100 RBI and 54 stolen bases over 1,013 at-bats.
His bat came alive in 2019 between AA and AAA (.300 with 71 runs, 26 home runs, 71 RBI and 12 steals over 370 at-bats), earning him a chance to start in the majors (.231/24/6/24/1 over 156 at-bats) with the Brewers.
Over his first two years with the Padres, Grisham hit .245 with 103 runs, 25 home runs, 88 RBI and 23 stolen bases over 677 at-bats. He had a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.9) while showing improvement in his strikeout rate (22.6) last year. His approach (strikeout rate – 21.4 and walk rate – 15.8) was better in the minors.
He missed about three weeks in late June and early May with a heel injury. Grisham hit better against left-handed pitching (.261 with five home runs and 24 RBI over 115 at-bats). However, his bat regressed after the All-Star break (.211/26/4/26/5 over 228 at-bats). He ranked 215th in hard-hit rate (36.8), 177th in launch angle (12.3) and 232nd in barrel rate (5.2).
Fantasy Outlook
If Grisham didn’t miss any time, he was on pace for 73 runs, 18 home runs, 74 RBI and 15 stolen bases with 550 at-bats. He finished 114th for hitters in SIscore (-1.82) while having a higher ranking (82nd batter drafted) by his ADP (134) in the NFBC. Fantasy managers had him mispriced last year (ADP – 68). At a minimum, with an entire season of games, Grisham should produce more than 20 home runs and stolen bases. His ability to take walks points to an edge in runs, but I expect some drag in his batting average. In my thoughts, if my game plan leads me down his aisle.
SS Fernando Tatis
Fantasy managers still haven’t seen the ceiling of Tatis. Last year, he was on a destructive path (against pitchers), leading to career-highs in all categories except batting average.
His strikeout rate (28.0) restricts his ceiling, but part of his failure in this area came from his battle with left shoulder injuries. Tatis missed 10 days over the first half of April (shoulder), another nine days in May (Covid-19), a slight scare in June (one game) and 16 more days in late July and early August (shoulder). The Padres changed his swing to keep his right hand on the bat to limit his extension on his follow-through.
Tatis had a sensational first 274 at-bats (67 runs, 28 home runs, 60 RBI and 20 stolen bases). Unfortunately, his bat had a step back in value after the All-Star break (.278/32/14/37/5 over 2005 at-bats).
He rated well in RBI rate (20), contact batting average (.415) and average hit rate (2.163). Tatis finished fifth in hard-hit rate (55.6) and third in barrel rate (21.3), but his launch angle (13.8 – 143rd). His HR/FB rate (32.1) has been exceptional in his career (32.1). He finished with his highest fly-ball rate (39.9).
Fantasy Outlook
The Padres and Tatis decided against surgery in the offseason, which may be a red flag for some fantasy managers. Ideally, a correction in his issue would invite more confidence to play an entire season. Despite missing 32 games, he ranked fourth in SIscore (8.50) for hitters. Tatis was on pace for 123 runs, 52 home runs, 121 RBI and 31 stolen bases over 162 games. Hidden in his stats were low RBI chances (290). Tatis is by far the best first piece to the hitting puzzle. His ceiling in batting average would be much higher with a move closer to the league average in his strikeout rate. The only fear with his bat is missed playing time.
3B Manny Machado
Machado continues to get extra points due to his ability to stay on the field. He’s missed 19 games over the past seven seasons.
His SIscore (4.82) ranked 23rd for hitters, which came in below his 2021 ADP (22nd). Machado finished with a favorable strikeout rate (15.9) and walk rate (9.8).
He lost his rhythm at the plate against left-handed pitching (.246 with five home runs and 14 RBI over 134 at-bats). Machado played at his highest level from June 16-Sept. 11 (.311/52/15/52/6 over 270 at-bats). His average hit rate (1.758) was a five-year low while remaining in an area to support more than 30 home runs. He finished with the best RBI rate (21) of his career.
Machado ranked highly in hard-hit rate (52.2 – 21st) and barrel rate (13.3 – 45th). His swing path remains balanced despite his fly-ball rate (40.7) trending slightly down. He finished 137th in launch angle (14.0). Despite 251 career home runs, Machado has never had an elite HR/FB rate (14.6 – 15.3 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook
Winning in fantasy baseball is all about building blocks and impact players. Machado has plenty of power while being a one-off from one of the best hitters in the game. His ADP (23) in the NFBC in mid-February requires him to have a rebound in power and maintain his recent uptick steals. Think .280 with 90 runs, 30 home runs, 90 RBI and 10 stolen bases while hoping for a higher ceiling. I view him as a building block.
1B Eric Hosmer
Hosmer appeared to be trending up in power over 762 at-bats in 2019 and 2020 (31 home runs and 135 RBI) while offering an elite RBI rate (21 and 24). Over this span, he hit .269, which is where Hosmer ended up last year.
Unfortunately, his swing path continues to offer an insanely high ground ball rate (55.5 – 54.4 in his career). Only about a quarter of his balls in play ended in fly balls. Hosmer had a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (11.3 and 22.5 in 2020 and 20.8 in 2019).
His hard-hit rate (47.0 – 60th) is better than expected. However, he ranked at the bottom of the league in launch angle (3.3 – 303rd) with weakness in his barrel rate (5.8 – 222nd).
He missed some time in May with Covid-19 and a forearm issue. After a good start in April (.320 with 10 runs, three home runs and 17 RBI over 100 at-bats), Hosmer was a losing fantasy decision for the rest of the season. His strikeout rate (17.5) and walk rate (8.5) finished close to his career averages.
Fantasy Outlook
Hosmer needs 1,371 hits to reach 3,000, but his resume is far from the Hall of Fame. San Diego needs someone to seize the clean-up spot in their lineup with a higher ceiling in power. His ADP (364) in the NFBC puts him more in the DH conversation in deep formats. Before 2021, his average hit rate was trending higher. I won’t fight for him on draft day, but a .270/20/80/5 season isn’t bad for his price point. If Hosmer can figure out how to put the ball in the air, his bat would become much more valuable.
OF Wil Myers
Once Myers reached the prime of his career at 27, he failed to produce over 450 at-bats in each of his last four seasons. His bat delivered 187 runs, 61 home runs, 195 RBI and 39 stolen bases over 1,387 at-bats from 2018-21 with a .255 batting average.
Myers battled a right knee issue early in the year that led to minimal missed time but emptiness over his next 43 at-bats (seven hits with four runs, one home run and two RBI). Covid-19 cost him 12 days in May. He battled a minor hamstring injury twice after the All-Star break.
The Padres never gave him full-time at-bats in any month, leading to dull stats on too many days. His strikeout rate (28.2) remains a liability while taking his share of walks (10.8%). Myers finished with a six-year low in his HR/FB rate (15.2).
All of his Statcast data painted a weaker picture of the future of his bat.
Fantasy Outlook
Myers has talent and his 2020 season (.288/34/15/40 over 198 at-bats) shows his potential when his bat is in rhythm. His ADP (281) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship requires him to get a minimum of 500 at-bats. He brings a high contact batting average (.375) with a history of strength in his average hit rate (1.699). Possible 25/10 player with a higher ceiling if Myers ever locks in for an extended period.
2B Jake Cronenworth
Over five seasons in the minors, Cronenworth hit .283 with 22 home runs, 219 RBI and 73 stolen bases over 1,906 at-bats. He played at the highest level at AAA (.328 with 79 runs, 10 home runs, 47 RBI and 13 steals over 369 at-bats).
With Hosmer spending time on the injured list in 2020, Cronenworth worked well as a replacement player over the last two weeks in August (22-for-56 with 13 runs, two home runs, 12 RBI and one steal). Unfortunately, his hot run didn’t carry over into September (.183 over 71 at-bats with no home runs and three RBI).
The Padres gave Cronenworth his first starting job in the majors and his bat responded with an SIscore (0.47) that ranked 70th for hitters. He finished with an above-average walk rate (8.6) and strength in his strikeout rate (14.0). Cronenworth shined over 202 at-bats in May and June (.297 with 40 runs, 10 home runs and 29 RBI).
His average hit rate (1.728) is trending upward, but he finished with a weaker contact batting average (.317). Despite progression in power, Cronenworth finished with a low hard-hit rate (35.0 – 230th), barrel rate (7.2 – 184th) and launch angle (12.5 – 173rd).
Fantasy Outlook
The growth in his bat may point to a higher slot in the batting order, but his RBI rate (13) came in below the league average. Cronenworth has speed on his minor league resume and his batting average should push higher. In the early draft season, he has an ADP (119) in the NFBC priced him as the 73rd batter off the board. Let’s shoot for .275 with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 75 RBI and 10 steals.
OF Nomar Mazara
In 2019, Mazara was on pace for 88 runs, 24 home runs and 85 RBI if he didn’t miss most of the final six weeks with oblique and thumb injuries.
He did have growth in 2019 in his average hit rate (1.748) and contact batting average (.358), with strength in his RBI rate (17) in his career.
Mazara started 2020 on the injured list with what appeared to be a battle with Covid-19. After missing nine days, his bat never had a pulse. He finished with a jump in his strikeout rate (29.5), his fourth straight season of regression.
Last year an abdominal issue in April led to three weeks on the injured list. The Tigers cut him in July after an empty start to the year (.212 with 12 runs, three home runs and 19 RBI over 165 at-bats).
Mazara played well over his first four years with the Rangers (.261 with 253 runs, 79 home runs and 308 RBI over 1,988 at-bats) between the age of 21 and 24. However, his ceiling in power was lower due to a ground ball swing path (49.3%) while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (21.2%).
Fantasy Outlook
San Diego may sign another starting bat after the lockout, pushing Mazara to a rotational outfield role. He has 20/80 upside if given full-time at-bats. His minor league deal requires him to hit his way onto the major-league roster in spring training.
OF Jurickson Profar
Profar went down as bust last year after looking like a player with 20 home run power and double-digit steals. He checked the speed box with fewer at-bats (353) than expected.
His average hit rate (.278) has been meager twice over the past three seasons (.260 in 2019) while hinting of more upside in 2020 (.329) over 56 games. Profar was a disaster with runners on base (RBI rate – 11) and his average hit rate (1.413) came in well below 2018 (1.805) and 2019 (1.880).
He missed six games in May with close contact with a player with Covid-19. Profar caught the virus in August, leading to 18 days out of the lineup.
Left-handed pitching held him to a .154 batting average with one home run and six RBI over 78 at-bats. Profar never had more than one home run or more than 10 RBI in any month. He produced 27 runs, one home run, 16 RBI and nine stolen bases over his first 161 at-bats before fading off into the sunset (.214/20/3/17/1 over 192 at-bats).
Profar finished with an empty HR/FB rate (3.8), which was well below his previous three seasons (13.2, 14.0 and 14.9). His hard-hit rate (30.2 – 285th) and barrel rate (2.7 – 289th) ranked at the bottom of the league while offering a higher rating in launch angle (14.0 – 141st).
Fantasy Outlook
When looking over his Statcast data from 2018-19, Profar had a similar profile. His swing path leads to many line drives, but his ball in play lacks zip-off-the-bat 70% of the time. He needs to get stronger to help his exit velocity and potential batting average. Nevertheless, Profar brings an above-average approach to the plate with some power and speed. His ADP (498) in the NFBC puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats in 2022. I expect him to shade closer to a platoon player with replacement value if more balls leave the park.
C Jorge Alfaro
Over the past two seasons, Alfaro has been a fantasy disappointment (.240 over 388 at-bats with 34 runs, seven home runs, 46 RBI and 10 RBI). However, his bat was trending upward in 2019 when he set career-highs in runs (44), home runs (18) and RBI (57) over 431 at-bats.
Alfaro missed the start of 2020 with a battle with Covid-19. A hamstring issue last April cost him 24 days and his season ended with a calf injury in September.
He continues to have a significant strikeout rate (31.8 – 33.8 in his career) that a higher contact batting average (.368 over his previous two seasons – .421 in 2018 and 2019) can offset. In addition, Alfaro has always had a low walk rate (3.5 – 4.3 in his career).
Last year, his only spark came in August (.301 over 83 at-bats with nine runs, one home run, 17 RBI and three stolen bases).
Fantasy Outlook
The Padres have four viable options at catcher in 2022. Alfaro will compete for the starting job. His career splits are about the same against lefties and righties, pointing to him getting the most playing time when he puts the ball in play more than walking to the dugout with the bat on his shoulder. His ADP (394) in the NFBC prices him as a C2 in deep formats. Runs and batting average project as issues and I can’t see Alfaro receiving 400 at-bats. At best, a .250/40/10/40/5 player.
Bench Options
Austin Nola
After drifting through the minors for eight seasons with empty power and a low batting average, Nola popped at AAA in 2019 (.327 with seven home runs and 37 RBI over 196 at-bats). His success led to his first shot in the majors.
He worked as a utility player with the Mariners while working through his early minor-league career at second base and shortstop. With Seattle in 2019, Nola had follow-through in power (10 home runs) with value in runs (37) and RBI (31) when considering his at-bats (238).
In 2020, between the Mariners and the Padres, he offered a steady C2 fantasy bat (.273 with 24 runs, seven home runs and 28 RBI over 161 at-bats).
Nola started last year on the injured list with a broken middle finger on his left hand, leading to almost a month of missed games. A left knee issue in late May cost him another eight weeks. His season ended with 12 days to go with a left thumb injury that required surgery.
Fantasy Outlook
The Padres should try to get Nola the most at-bats at catcher based on his approach (strikeout rate – 18.0 and walk rate – 8.5) ranking higher than Alfaro. Over his three years in the majors, Nola hit .271 with 76 runs, 19 home runs and 88 RBI over 572 at-bats). His ADP (350) in the NFBC rates him a C2 in deep formats. He is an interesting player, as his stats translate well if given 450 at-bats.
C Victor Caratini
Over seven seasons in the minors, Caratini hit .290 with 30 home runs, 265 RBI and four steals in 1,818 at-bats.
He played well for the Cubs in 2019 (.266 with 31 runs, 11 home runs and 34 RBI over 244 at-bats), but Caratini failed to repeat in power off the bench in 2020 (.241 with one home run and 16 RBI over 116 at-bats).
An injury to Nola helped Caratini receive the most playing time of his career with the Padres. Unfortunately, his bat regressed in home runs (7) and batting average (.227) despite a career top in at-bats (313).
His strikeout rate (23.0) drifted slightly higher, while his walk rate (9.8) has been an asset over the past three seasons. He only hit .214 against right-handed pitching over 243 at-bats with six home runs and 29 RBI.
Caratini barely had a pulse after the All-Star break (.231/13/1/10 over 117 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
I only see him as the third option at catcher for San Diego in 2022 and C Luis Campusano could quickly jump him on the depth chart based on his higher ceiling. Caratini doesn’t offer starting fantasy stats, but he may find a better opportunity with another team if the Padres decide to move on from his bat.
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Over seven seasons in Korea, Kim hit .294 with 133 home runs, 575 RBI and 134 stolen bases over 3,195 at-bats. His best success came in 2020 (.306 with 111 runs, 30 home runs, 109 RBI and 23 steals over 533 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.712) was career-high in 2020, while his previous success from 2016-19 supports closer to 20 home runs. Kim finished with the best approach (strikeout rate – 10.9 and walk rate – 12.1) in his last season in Korea while grading well in this area over the past five years.
He likes to pull the ball for power. Kim didn’t have any home runs right of centerfield in 2020. His swing looked to have a massive edge over the velocity in Korea, which helped him drive low breaking pitches out of the park.
In his first experience in the majors, Kim had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.276) with some regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 23.8 and walk rate – 7.4). He hit .200 or lower in four different months while receiving fewer than 40 at-bats in each of the final four months. His hard-hit rate (31.8 – 267th) and barrel rate (4.5 – 253rd) finished in a weak area.
Fantasy Outlook
For Kim to earn starting at-bats in the infield for the Padres, he would need Tatis to see more time in the outfield plus have a significant improvement in his bat. His stats last year fall in line with a AAA player struggling in his first chance in the big leagues. A lot of his failure from 2021 came from many infield flies or bat timing at the plate. His ADP (379) in the NFBC puts him in the flier/gamble range. I expect better in Kim’s second year with San Diego, but his playing time may be up and down early in the year.
Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Joe Musgrove
Musgrove had a 29-38 record over five seasons in the majors with a 4.33 ERA and 465 strikeouts over 496.2 innings. His career started (first 457 innings) with a plus walk rate (2.1) while striking out 8.1 batters per nine. In 2020, he had regression in his command (3.6 walks per nine) with a jump in his strikeout ability (12.5 per nine).
Last season, Musgrove stayed healthy for the whole season, leading to a career-best in ERA (3.18), WHIP (1.081), BAA (.213), strikeouts (203) and innings pitched (181.1). He allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 32 games. Musgrove had a 2.22 ERA, .171 BAA and 103 strikeouts over 85 innings over his first 15 appearances. He finished the year with a 4.02 ERA, .248 BAA and 100 strikeouts over his 96.1 innings.
His average fastball (93.3) was about league average. Musgrove gained his edge with his slider (.158 BAA), curveball (.123 BAA) and low-volume changeup (.219 BAA). Batters banged around his four-seam fastball (.309 BAA), sinker (.429 BAA) and cutter (.295 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
I listed Musgrove as the Padres’ ace based on him pitching the best in 2021. Despite an improving arm and his home ballpark works in his favor, he doesn’t have the fastball to put away batters. Musgrove recorded 154 of his 203 strikeouts via his slider (91) and curveball (63). His ADP (79) in the NFBC in mid-February priced him as an SP2 in 12 and 15 formats. Last year he ranked 20th in SIscore (2.65) for pitchers. His higher ceiling in command gives him a chance at sub 3.00 ERA and another run at 200 strikeouts.
SP Blake Snell
Entering the 2021 draft season, fantasy managers had visions of Snell escaping from the micromanaging Rays coaching staff, with an eye of adding more depth to his starts. In the end, Snell’s lack of command (4.8 walks per nine) led to many early exits and too many bad starts.
Over his first 20 starts, Snell failed to pitch beyond the fifth inning in 16 games, leading to only four wins with 5.44 ERA and 1.613 WHIP over 84.1 innings. He tried to save his season over his next seven starts (1.85 ERA, 0.779, .136 BAA and 65 strikeouts over 43.2 innings) while throwing over 100 pitches in six games. Over this span, he walked 2.9 batters per nine. Unfortunately, Snell left his Sept. 12 start with a groin injury that ended his year.
Left-handed batters only hit .144 against him with a low slugging percentage (.243). Snell struggled on the road (6.12 ERA and 1.740 WHIP over 60.1 innings).
His average fastball (95.2) faded slightly for the third straight season. He offered three plus pitches (four-seamer – .210 BAA, curveball – .200 BAA and slider – .150 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
There is no doubt that Snell is challenging to hit, but his secondary pitches have a lot less value when pitching from behind in the count. His outstanding season in 2018 (21-5 with 1.89 ERA, 0.974 WHIP and 221 strikeouts over 180.2 innings) shines like a beacon when reviewing his overall resume. Snell is the 44th pitcher drafted this year in the NFBC (ADP of 118). At the very least, he will be one hell of a ride again in 2022. The question comes between greatness and disaster. Last year, he tested my faith, so I’m at the back of the line in the Snell lottery this season. I’ll put his range between a Cy Young and a season-ending elbow injury. On a side note, if Robbie Ray can become a stud, Snell has a better arsenal and a higher ceiling.
SP Yu Darvish
Darvish fell into the underachieving front-end ace bucket last year. His regression in ERA (4.22) came from repeated failure with home runs allowed (1.5 per nine).
After a poor first start (four runs, nine baserunners and two home runs over 4.2 innings), he pushed fantasy teams up the standing over his next nine games (1.26 ERA, 0.807 WHIP, .171 BAA and 68 strikeouts over 57 innings). Darvish tripped up again on May 29 (four runs, seven baserunners and one home run over five innings) while throwing the ball well in June (3.07 ERA).
Over the final three months, he allowed two runs or fewer in only five of his 14 starts, leading to a disastrous run (6.65 ERA, 1.301 WHIP and 18 home runs over 70.1 innings). Darvish missed some time in August with a back injury. The Padres placed him on the injured list late in September with a hip issue.
Darvish had most of his failure on the road (2-7 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.323 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 65 innings).
His average fastball (94.6) was 1.5 MPH lower than 2020 but aligned with his path from 2017-19. Darvish threw his slider (.258 BAA and 14 home runs allowed) as his top pitch. Batters struggled to hit his split-finger fastball (.233 BAA), four-seamer (.153 BAA), curveball (.169 BAA) and sinker (.131).
Fantasy Outlook
For the most part, Darvish has failed to live up to his draft value five times over the past six years. He has a knack for coming up short in wins (40 over his previous 129 starts) while grading higher in WHIP (1.119) than ERA (3.78). Moreover, his second-half struggles looked health-related. In 2022, Darvish projects as borderline backend SP2 with an ADP of 99 in the NFBC. Ultimately, his only problem is limiting the damage in home runs. Nevertheless, he has an upside of a 2.50 ERA and 225 strikeouts if Darvish regains his 2020 form.
SP Mike Clevinger
Clevinger gave Cleveland an excellent run from 2017-19 when he went 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA and 513 strikeouts over 447.2 innings. However, a back injury led to 12 missed starts in 2019.
In 2020, Clevinger suffered a left knee injury in February, but a late start to the year led to him being ready for his first start. He posted a 3.24 ERA over his first three starts over 16 innings, but something didn’t look right based on 10 walks and four home runs allowed. A Covid-19 issue led to three weeks on the injured list. Clevinger rebounded over his next 25 innings (2.88 ERA and 25 strikeouts), but a forearm issue late in September eventually led to TJ surgery in November.
In 2019 and 2020, his fastball sat in the mid-90s while gaining his edge via his slider and four-seamer. Clevinger had a much better curveball earlier in his career.
Fantasy Outlook
With 16 months to recover from his elbow injury, Clevinger has a chance to be at full strength in mid-May. His ADP (197) in the NFBC ranks him as the 71st pitcher drafted. The key to repeated success is maintaining his improvement in command. His biggest strike is only one season with over 130 innings pitched in the majors over the last five years. I’m interested in Clevinger this season if his spring reports give him a chance to be ready by opening day. Typically, pitchers coming off TJ surgery need an entire season of work before regaining their top form.
SP Dinelson Lamet
Since having TJ surgery in 2018, Lamet has pitched 189 innings with a 3.43 ERA and 255 strikeouts.
Even with success in 2020 (2.09 ERA and 93 strikeouts over 69 innings), his right elbow/biceps flared up in late September, followed by a platelet-rich plasma treatment in mid-October.
Last year, Lamet landed on the injured list with a right elbow injury before the season. The Padres limited his pitch count over his first six games (2.57 and 15 strikeouts over 14 innings). His arm delivered 18 innings over his first four starts in June (3.00 and 22 strikeouts). A bad start on June 26 pushed him back on the injured list for two months with a forearm issue. Lamet pitched in relief over his final 11 games (6.39 ERA, 1.737 WHIP and 19 strikeouts over 12.2 innings).
His average fastball (95.5) was 1.5 MPH lower than 2020 (97.0). Lamet threw his slider (.158 BAA) over 50% of the time over the previous two seasons. He also lost his command (4.2 walks per nine) last year.
Fantasy Outlook
The Padres only have one option left with Lamet. They need to limit his pitches by moving him to the bullpen, where his plus-slider and fastball have a chance to be electric. Unfortunately, his elbow struggles last season put him on the fast track for a second TJ surgery. Lamet has plenty of risk, but his ADP (387) in the NFBC may lead to sneaky value if San Diego does shift him to the ninth inning.
SP Chris Paddack
Paddack is an example of a fantasy manager (me) believing in a foundation skill set to a fault. His calling card in the minors (1.0) and the majors (1.9) was a plus walk rate while having a reasonable floor in strikeouts.
Over his first nine starts last year, he went 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, .227 BAA and 36 strikeouts. Paddack served up three home runs in his next start (five runs and seven baserunners over 4.1 innings), but his arm appeared to be on the rise three games later (3.71 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 17 innings). The dream of help over the final three months ended over his next five starts (10.31 ERA, 1.910 WHIP and four strikeouts over 18.1 innings).
In late July, the Padres placed him on the injured list with an oblique issue. Paddack made three more starts (4.70) before bowing out over the final three weeks with a right elbow injury. San Diego decided to give him a platelet-rich plasma injection in late September.
His average fastball (94.9) was a career high, but batters drilled his four-seamer (.303 BAA and .518 SLG). He continues to have a winning changeup (.233 BAA). In addition, Paddack showed an improved curveball (.167 BAA) while adding a show-me cutter (.200 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Paddack does have a high ceiling while also owning season-ending injury risk. However, his ADP (400) in the NFBC takes out some of his downside as a fantasy manager should be able to find another replaceable arm later in the draft or free agency. Any investment with Paddack starts a healthy, successful spring training.
SP MacKenzie Gore
The Padres drafted Gore with the third overall pick in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school.
After a down 2018 season at A Ball (4.45 ERA), while battling blister issues, his arm shined in 2019. He dominated over 15 starts at High A (7-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 110 strikeouts over 79.1 innings) while allowing just 36 hits. However, a push to AA led to some regression in his stuff (4.15 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 21.2 innings).
Last year, Gore lost his confidence and mechanics, leading to a disappointing season. He pitched only 50.1 innings, coming across four different levels of baseball. His arm had no answer for AAA (5.85 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, three home runs and 12 walks over 20 innings).
Gore has a mid-90s fastball plus three other offerings (slider, curveball and changeup) that project to be assets in the majors.
Fantasy Outlook
The path for Gore to pitch in the majors this year looks even cloudier. First, he needs to regain his command and prove his worth at AA and AAA before getting a major-league ride. His ADP (667) in the NFBC is the free zone while only being a player to follow in spring training and the minors in 2022. Gore could come fast while working, possibly as a handcuff to Paddack or Lamet.
Bullpen
SP Emilio Pagan
Over the first four months in 2019, Pagan blew seven of his 15 save chances while working much of the time as a setup man for the Rays. He finished the year with 12 saves in 14 chances with a 2.77 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 26 innings while only walking one batter.
With San Diego over the last two years, Pagan pitched his way out of the closing conversation due to his struggles with the longball (20 over 95.1 innings). He had a 4.75 ERA, 1.137 WHIP and 92 strikeouts over his 85.1 innings in San Diego. However, his strikeout rate (9.8) and walk rate (2.6) did gain back some value in 2021.
Pagan wasn’t that far off from pitching in the ninth inning after his first 49 games (3.13 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, .215 BAA and 53 strikeouts over 46 innings). However, he allowed 18 runs, 24 hits and nine home runs over his final 17.1 innings.
His path to the majors came from seven years in the minors (2.41 ERA and 326 strikeouts over 269.1 innings).
Pagan had a slight rebound in his fastball (95.0 MPH), with batters hitting .228 with 13 home runs against his four-seamer. His slider (.232 BAA) came in below his career stats (.187 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
In late February, the closing job for the Padres looks wide open. San Diego may add another free-agent arm to pitch in the ninth inning. Pagan can look the closing part at times, but his struggles with home runs push him to the seventh and eighth innings. As a result, fantasy managers will find him in the waiver pool unless he gets a ninth-inning endorsement in spring training.
RP Drew Pomeranz
Pomeranz developed into a high-level lefty arm over his last 70.2 innings of relief for the Brewers and Padres. Over this span, he posted a 1.91 ERA, 1.019 WHIP and 104 strikeouts. Despite his success, his walk rate (3.8) remained an issue with San Diego.
His season ended in mid-August last year with a left forearm issue (torn flexor) that required surgery. Earlier in the year, he battled a lat injury, which cost him seven weeks.
His arm plays better against left-handed batters (.156 BAA – .224 in his career). Pomeranz had a rise in his fastball (94.0 MPH) after the move to the bullpen. He features a plus-curveball (.148 BAA) while offering a tough-to-hit four-seamer (.231 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Pomeranz should be ready for opening day. He only has nine career saves on his resume, but his arm does look closer-worthy if Pomeranz stays healthy and improves his command.
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