NFL DFS Week 9 Picks: Bargain Buys and Spend-Up Studs

Week 9 NFL DFS picks across three pricing tiers so you're covered whether you need a big spend-up stud, mid-tier or bargain value.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
Nov 4, 2022

It’s time to set your main slate DFS lineups!

I’ll be targeting a few games for my lineups this week.

I like the matchups in the Chargers-Falcons game. Both defenses can be beat, and SI Sportsbook predicts it will be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. There is also a lot of value in that game due to injuries.

I’m also targeting the Detroit defense taking on Green Bay as well as the Seahawks-Cardinals game that should be high-scoring.

Finally, consider Vikings-Commanders as a contrarian play for a big GPP. The Commanders have looked better with Taylor Heinicke now at QB, and Terry McLaurin has finally become relevant again. The values are still great for both players, and you can get more points from the other side of this game with a spend-up Justin Jefferson in a smash spot. Remember, when targeting specific games for a build, you’ll want to have players from both sides of the matchup and hope for some lead changes to keep the game total high.

If you don’t like to focus on specific game stacks, you can certainly just pick and choose from a few players I have listed below at each price tier.

I was able to take first place in an experts league tournament last week with players from last week’s article. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling!

NFL DFS Top-Tier Plays

Quarterback

Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers QB has had a week to rest and I’m willing to spend up and bet that he’s back on track vs. the Falcons this week. Atlanta has surrendered an average 26.2 DFS points and 361 passing yards to opposing QB across the last four games. Even without Mike Williams–and yes, even without Keenan Allen–Justin Herbert should be able to light them up.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
The Chargers are down pass-catchers, and that means Ekeler gets a bump. Ekeler has been a beast this season, averaging 22 DFS points per game. Much of that comes from his work through the air, and Ekeler is averaging more than seven catches per game. If Herbert passes for 360, Ekeler gets at least seven grabs easily. Ekeler is averaging the most receiving yards per game (51) and the most receptions per game (7.6) among NFL running backs.

Aaron Jones, Packers
It looks like the Packers have finally figured out they should lean more on the run game if they aren’t going to give Aaron Rodgers any more weapons. This matchup with Detroit is the perfect time to play the Packers running backs. Detroit is allowing 131 yards per game to opposing RBs across the past three games, and on the season they have allowed a league-leading 11 rushing touchdowns. That’s 1.6 TDs per game. I would be remiss not to mention that Aaron Jones has shredded the Lions in their last three matchups. Across those three, he has averaged 142 all-purpose yards per game and he’s scored seven touchdowns.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson, Vikings
I don’t care that he hasn’t scored a receiving TD since Week 1, JJ is a stud. The Commanders are allowing 173 yards per game to opposing wideouts and Jefferson is averaging 107 yards per game, 29% of the team’s targets (fifth in the NFL) while also commanding 35.6% of his team’s air yards (8th).

Tight End

Zach Ertz, Cardinals
Ertz remains a top red-zone target for Kyler Murray, and this week he faces a Seahawks team that has allowed seven TDs in only eight games played to opposing TEs. The Seahawks are also allowing a league-leading 10.27 yards per target to the position and Ertz is averaging 7.5 targets per game.

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NFL DFS Mid-Tier Plays

Quarterback

Geno Smith, Seahawks
Geno Smith just keeps playing well. He finished as a Top 11 DFS quarterback last week, and on the season he’s the QB7. This week, the matchup is excellent vs. a Cardinals team that has allowed the fourth-most DFS points to opposing QBs across the past four contests. That includes not only 255 passing yards per game, but also 38 rushing yards per game, and Smith has proven he can be successful with both.

Running Back

Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Travis Etienne is fully in control of this backfield, and he’s running away with it. It’s incredible we can still get this much value when Etienne is now the bell cow, averaging an incredible 6.2 yards per attempt this season and accumulating for an average of 135 rushing yards per game across the last two games. With no James Robinson, Etienne saw a whopping 24 carries vs. Denver, and this week’s matchup is far softer. The Raiders have allowed the third-most DFS points to opposing running backs across the past four weeks.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
Sure, the Dolphins traded for Jeff WIlson Jr., but I am still high on the idea that Mostert is in control of this backfield. The salary is a bargain for Mostert, who is facing a Bears defense that just allowed three touchdowns to Tony Pollard. They have now allowed seven scores across the past four games to opposing running backs and the eighth-most rushing yards per game.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin, Commanders
He’s back! Scary Terry has been reignited with Taylor Heinicke under center. Since Heinicke’s return, the stud wideout has seen a 25.8% target share, averaging eight targets and 93 receiving yards per game. This week, the Commanders face a Vikings secondary that has allowed 225 yards per game to opposing wideouts across their last three contests.

D.J. Moore, Panthers
Speaking of being back, D.J. Moore made this article in the bargain section last week, and boy did he deliver! P.J. Walker seems to have unlocked more Moore, and I’m happily starting him again this week at a mid-tier salary vs. the Bengals. The matchup isn’t extraordinary, but the value is for a player with the eighth-most targeted air yards in the league (755).

Tight End

Gerald Everett, Chargers
No Keenan Allen and no Mike Williams means Everett should be involved again. Everett has the third-most targets on the team this year and is averaging four catches and 44 receiving yards per game. That’s a nice floor with potential for big upside vs. this generous Atlanta defense.

NFL DFS Bargain-Tier Plays

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke, Commanders
Heinicke has finished as a top 13 DFS QB in each of his two starts this year, and this week he gets a cake matchup with the Vikings secondary. Stack him with McLaurin and you can easily spend up for Jefferson on the other side of this game.

Running Back

AJ Dillon, Packers
This is simply a play on how poor the Detroit run defense is–especially at the goal line. If you don’t want to spend up for Aaron Jones, Dillon could easily sneak some points for you. Dillon has the backseat role to Jones, but with the Lions allowing more than five yards per carry and more than one TD per game to RBs, he could easily go for 50-plus yards and a score.

Caleb Huntley, Falcons
Huntley is a talented runner that could get goal-line carries vs. a generous Chargers run defense that has allowed five rushing TDs to running backs across the past three contests. It’s a committee in Atlanta, and Cordarrelle Patterson could even be back, so this is a dart-throw only.

Wide Receiver

Joshua Palmer/DeAndre Carter, Chargers
I’ll lump both Chargers wideouts in here together, since there could be enough to go around. I can’t harp any more on how generous Atlanta has been, and Carter could easily assume the Keenan Allen role while Palmer assumes the Mike Williams position. For this bargain salary, either player is worth a start.

Tight End

Will Dissly, Seahawks
The Cardinals are notoriously bad vs. tight ends, and Dissly is as good of a dart-throw as any. His three touchdowns this year are tied with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

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