Fab's 10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for the 2026 Season

Ranks: QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K | Top 200 | Mock draft

The NFL and fantasy football are known for its unpredictability.

Weird stuff happens all the time, and predicting it can be difficult because these oddities aren’t even based on the perceived reality of the situation. I’ll give you some examples.

Like many others, I loved Patriots quarterback Drake Maye going into last season, but did anyone see him finishing second in fantasy points among quarterbacks, ahead of Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and everyone else not named Josh Allen? If you did, you’re either lying … or you should be picking lottery numbers!

What if I told you last summer that Cowboys running back Javonte Williams would finish with more fantasy points than Saquon Barkley? (I did say Barkley would be a disappointment, but I didn’t see him finishing behind Williams.) What if I suggested the Cardinals' Michael Wilson would be a top-10 wide receiver? Oh, and what about predicting Harold Fannin Jr. would be a more productive tight end than George Kittle?

If I had made any of these predictions before last season, I would have been laughed at, heckled, called names and maybe fitted for a straitjacket and thrown into a padded room.

I also would have been right.

So, like Michael Keaton said in the 1989 movie Batman … “Let’s get nuts!”

Here are 10 bold predictions that you might laugh at now, but might regret heeding at season’s end. After all, the Saquon prediction wasn't the only one I got right last year. I also predicted Lamar Jackson would score 100-plus fewer points compared to 2024, Ja’Marr Chase would see a 100-point decline (it was 90), Ladd McConkey would fall out of the top 20 wideouts and Brock Bowers wouldn’t catch 75 passes.

Christian McCaffrey will be the biggest bust in fantasy football

Admittedly, I was dead wrong about McCaffrey last season. His proneness to injuries scared me away from drafting him in the first round, and he went on to score a league-high 416.6 fantasy points. So why do I have him listed as a potential bust? Well, he’s entering his age-30 season after a year with 450 touches between the regular season and postseason. CMC has also played back-to-back full seasons just once since 2020, and just two of the past 13 backs who led the league in touches went on to finish in the top 12 the following year. Owners beware.

Jaxson Dart will be this year’s fantasy version of Drake Maye

Dart is one of just two true breakout quarterbacks I’m projecting in 2026. He finished 13th in points as a rookie, but he averaged more than 17 fantasy points in his 14 games (12 starts). A dual-threat quarterback, he rushed for 487 yards and nine touchdowns. Dart also found success as a passer, and he did it without his top option, Malik Nabers. With Nabers and Cam Skattebo back in action, Dart will have plenty of weapons and a terrific shot at being this year’s Maye.

Drake Maye will fall far short of his 2025 breakout fantasy totals

I always want fantasy fans to beware the magical season, and Maye is no different. He was phenomenal last year, finishing second in points among quarterbacks behind only the great Josh Allen. However, he benefited from a favorable schedule that saw him dominate bad or mediocre teams such as the Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Bengals and Giants. In all, he averaged an impressive 20.7 fantasy points per game.

Once he got into the postseason against good-to-great defenses like the Chargers, Texans, Broncos and Seahawks, however, that average dropped to 16.2 points per game. Coming off a Super Bowl appearance and having to face a tougher slate that opens in Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised if Maye fails to meet his heightened statistical expectations for this season.

Emeka Egbuka will be the next Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy

Egbuka looked like he was going to break out as a rookie, scoring 20-plus fantasy points in three of his first five games. The wheels fell off after that, though, as he scored in double digits just twice the rest of the season. That was partially due to the returns of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, not to mention a midseason hamstring ailment. With Evans signing in San Francisco, however, I think Egbuka will become the top option in Tampa Bay’s pass attack. That said, and reminding fantasy fans that Smith-Njigba was the WR9 in his second NFL season, I can see Egbuka following that path and being a top-10 fantasy wideout in his Year 2.

Five Wide Receivers I Can’t Stop Drafting In My Fantasy Football Leagues!@SInow pic.twitter.com/GMHl4zkpMM
— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) July 30, 2026

Father Time will finally catch up with Derrick Henry

Henry continued to defy the trend of older (age 30-plus) running backs falling statistically, as he finished eighth in fantasy points among running backs last season at age 31. It should be noted, however, that he scored 14 or fewer points in 10 of his 17 games (59%), and 17% of his points came in just two games. And while Henry has proven to be a statistical unicorn, only two running backs (Walter Payton, John Riggins) have scored more than 250 fantasy points in a season at age 32 or older in NFL history. Those are also the lone running backs to rush for more than 1,121 yards at that age, and only Riggins, Ottis Anderson and Jerome Bettis have ever rushed for 14 or more touchdowns at age 32 or older. Henry won't be a complete bust, but I expect his numbers to decline.

Josh Jacobs won’t finish as a top-15 fantasy back

Jacobs has been a stud for most of his NFL career, but we might have begun to see some cracks in his armor a year ago. His yards-per-carry average dropped just under four, and his point-per-game average declined 1.4 points from the previous season. What’s more, Jacobs’ Rushing Yards Over Expected was -7 (96th among RBs), down from +217 in 2024 (4th).

I’m not saying he’s going to completely fall off a statistical cliff, but at 28, there’s certainly a chance he’s on the verge of becoming more of a declining fantasy option in Green Bay’s backfield.

Luther Burden III will emerge into a top-15 fantasy wide receiver

Burden will be one of the most popular breakout players in fantasy football this season. He opened eyes late in his rookie year, scoring 11-plus points in three of his final four games, including a 27.8-point performance against the 49ers in Week 17. The Bears moved on from DJ Moore, trading him to Buffalo, so there will be plenty of targets for Burden to absorb. Also, coach Ben Johnson called Burden “electric” during OTAs and told the media he was “buying Burden stock.” The young receiver has huge upside in his second season and is clearly a player to target.

Tyler Warren will be the top tight end in fantasy football

The Colts' Warren averaged nearly 15 points in his first seven games last season, but that average fell to just 8.7 over his final 10 (most coming without quarterback Daniel Jones). Still, he ended up with a respectable 11.1 points per game overall. Now, with the departure of Michael Pittman Jr., Warren is expected to see an even larger role in 2026.

Pittman saw a team-high 111 targets (6.5 per game) last season, and the Colts didn't replace him during the offseason. As a result, Warren will absorb some of those targets. Also keep in mind that a tight end has not finished No. 1 in back-to-back seasons since Travis Kelce did it from 2016-2020. So, if it's not Trey McBride, why not Warren?

Tyler Shough will finish as a top-12 fantasy quarterback

Shough was great down the stretch of his rookie year, putting up 17-plus fantasy points in all but one of his final eight games. Based on total points, he was the eighth-best quarterback over the final five weeks of the fantasy season. The Saints did right by him in the offseason, too, adding Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Jordyn Tyson. While he can be defined as either a breakout or sleeper candidate, Shough is certainly in the conversation as a potential fantasy draft bargain.

Malik Willis will finish as a top-15 fantasy quarterback

Willis doesn’t have a great group of pass-catchers around him in Miami, but his potential as a rusher is what drives his fantasy stock. In six career starts, he has averaged 45 rushing yards … that projects to more than 760 over a full 17 games. Since 1972, signal-callers who have rushed for at least 700 yards have finished in the top 10 over 70 percent of the time, and not one finished worse than QB15. That was Lamar Jackson, who would have finished in the top 10 had he not been limited to just 12 games in 2021. This all makes Willis a very intriguing QB2 selection in the later rounds of 2026 drafts.

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