Four Wins in Six Games: Are the Blue Jays' Wild-Card Hopes Real or a Mirage?

The Toronto Blue Jays are heating up, but is it too little too late?

Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Nathan Lukes and pitcher Lazaro Estrada react after a victory. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It may have taken much longer than anticipated, but the Toronto Blue Jays are finally playing winning baseball. After an awful start to the second half of the season, the Blue Jays have won four consecutive series.

They picked up a big series-opening win over the Boston Red Sox on Monday, improving their record to 57-63. While the division is out of reach, Toronto is 3.5 games back of a wild-card spot.

So, with 42 games to go, is a playoff run still in the cards for John Schneider's ball club, or has that window already closed?

Evaluating Blue Jays' Playoff Chances

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease high fives his teammates. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Blue Jays desperately needed this recent run. The offense finally showed life against the Philadelphia Phillies, combining for 18 runs on 29 hits. The starting pitching has held its own, but the bullpen has struggled in extra innings.

Per Fan Graphs, Toronto has an 8.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. Again, they're only 3.5 games back, but they sit behind four other teams in the wild-card standings. If a playoff run is in the cards, it'll have to happen over the next couple of weeks.

The remainder of August presents plenty of American League East matchups. They'll play three more games against the Red Sox before hosting the New York Yankees this weekend. Then, the Blue Jays hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Rays and the Yankees for a second time in a week.

Toronto will have opportunities in September to directly leapfrog the teams in front of them, such as the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, and Texas Rangers. However, these next few series must be won for the September games to matter.

Toronto Would Be a Tough Out in October

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Ernie Clement and third baseman Kazuma Okamoto celebrate. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This team hasn't quite lived up to expectations this season, but it's hard to ignore what the Blue Jays could do if they made the postseason. They have top-of-the-line starters in Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano. They have hitters who've proven themselves at the highest level, and they have backend bullpen arms that can lock up a game.

The verdict: A playoff run is still unlikely

Toronto is playing better, but they'll have to go on a serious run if October baseball is still on the agenda. The schedule doesn't do the Blue Jays any favors, and time is not on their side. To achieve 85 wins, they would have to finish the year 28-12.

No one is saying it's impossible. Toronto has the roster to make a run, but mid-season struggles put them in a serious hole, and the playoffs still feel like a distant goal right now.