Toronto Blue Jays' Biggest Surprise (and Disappointment) of the First Half
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The Toronto Blue Jays enter the All-Star break at 45-51, sitting 12 games behind the AL East lead and searching for answers.
Injuries forced Toronto to rely on unexpected contributors throughout the first half. Some answered the challenge better than anyone expected, while others failed to build on the success they enjoyed a year ago.
No player exceeded expectations more than Louis Varland.
The right-hander arrived as another bullpen arm but quickly developed into one of the Blue Jays' most dependable relievers. With injuries increasing the pressure on the available pitchers, Varland brought much-needed stability after taking over the closer's role.
On the other side of the equation is George Springer.
After a 2025 season in which he appeared to rediscover his offensive form, Springer has been unable to replicate that production and has emerged as one of Toronto's biggest individual disappointments.
Biggest Surprise: Louis Varland
Louis Varland did not arrive in Toronto expecting to become one of the club's most important relievers.
He posted a solid 2.97 ERA over 72⅔ innings between two teams in 2025, but he was still trying to establish himself as a reliable high-leverage option. His career had featured stretches of success, though he also struggled at times with hard contact and home runs.
That changed in 2026.
After Jeff Hoffman's early-season struggles in the closer's role, manager John Schneider turned to Varland in mid-April. He immediately became one of the Blue Jays' most valuable arms. Through 44 appearances in the first half, he owns a 1.10 ERA with 19 saves and 49 strikeouts across 49 innings.
The underlying numbers are just as impressive. Varland has raised his strikeout rate to 12.31 per nine innings, while his strikeout-minus-walk percentage has climbed to 28.4%, one of the best marks of his career. He has also done a much better job limiting quality contact, lowering his Hard-Hit rate to 36.4% and his Barrel rate to just 2.7%.
The combination of a fastball averaging 98.7 mph and an improved ability to generate chase swings has transformed his profile. Varland has become exactly what Toronto desperately needed: a reliever capable of handling the game's highest-leverage situations.
For a team hit hard by injuries and forced to lean heavily on its bullpen, finding a pitcher like Varland has been one of the season's biggest developments. What initially looked like a depth acquisition has turned into one of the club's greatest strengths.
Biggest Disappointment: George Springer
George Springer entered 2026 with renewed expectations.
After several years of injuries and offensive inconsistency, he appeared to have rediscovered his best form in 2025. At age 35, he hit .309 with 32 home runs, 84 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and a 166 wRC+.
It was one of Toronto's most encouraging stories last season. That production, however, has not carried over into 2026.
Through 66 games, Springer is hitting .218/.303/.374 with a 91 wRC+. His power has declined significantly, as his .156 isolated power is a sharp drop from the .251 mark he posted in 2025. His expected wOBA sits at .305, closely matching his actual production and suggesting his results accurately reflect the decline in the quality of his at-bats.
The biggest red flag has come against right-handed pitching. Throughout his career, Springer has consistently been a dangerous hitter in those matchups, but this season he owns just a 77 wRC+ against righties. For a team already missing significant offensive production because of injuries, his decline has become a major problem.
Varland has already solved one of Toronto's biggest problems at the back of the bullpen. If the Blue Jays are going to climb back into the postseason race, they'll also need Springer to rediscover the hitter he was in 2025.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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