Yankees Need Bounce-Back Season From Young Starter

On the surface, Luis Gil had a fine season for the New York Yankees in a limited capacity. The back of his baseball card says he posted a 3.32 ERA after returning from a lat strain.

His start against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park was a pivotal one as the Yankees hoped to stave off their AL East rival after being trounced by them all season long to that point. Gil even had a solid September, with a 2.93 ERA in five starts. In three of those starts, he pitched six innings.

Aug 17, 2021; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil (81) rects after a strike out during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Not everything is as it seems, though, and by the time Gil went down to Toronto and had trouble getting that Blue Jays lineup out in the ALDS, it was clear that this was not the same pitcher from the one who won Rookie of the Year. In fact, all the signs were there that that start would be a tough one for him.

Gil, whose calling card is his electric stuff, had issues getting strikeouts. His velocity was way down, too. That's a recipe for disaster for a pitcher when they're going up against a team with a low k rate, that also makes excellent contact, and can slug with the best of them.

Gil only allowed two earned runs, but he was out of the game after 2.2 innings. The damage could have been worse had Boone not pulled the plug when he did. The Jays had an average exit velocity of 95.9 MPH off his fastball, which was a tick higher than the 95.8 MPH he throws it.

Diminished Stuff

As for why Gil had such issues striking anybody out, that lat strain may have been the culprit, because what other explanation could there be for a 27-year-old losing velocity the way he did? Gil averaged 95.3 MPH on his fastball in 2025. That's way down from his 2024, where he averaged 96.6 MPH on it.

New York Yankees third baseman and starting Pitcher Luis Gil in the World Series — Oct 29, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) hands the ball to pitcher Luis Gil (81) to start the game in the first inning during game four of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Gil saw a slight, but also noticeable, degradation in his fastball, according to Stuff+ on Fangraphs as well. Gil had a 108 stuff+ on his heater in 2024. It fell to 101 in 2025, flirting with being an average-to-below-average pitch.

The lack of strikeout stuff was the most jarring because generating k's was Gil's calling card. He had a 16.8% strikeout rate, a 21.5% whiff rate, and a 20% chase rate in 2025. All of these are way down from his previous award-winning season, where he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 29% whiff rate, and a 25.5% chase rate. For his fastball specifically, Gil went from a 28.4% strikeout rate to 14.1% this season.

An Important 2026 for Gil

This will be a big year for Gil. For one, he needs to stay healthy. Two, he needs to prove last season was a fluke year in terms of his underlying metrics. For that to happen, he needs to get back to what he was the season before, where his stuff was electric, and he carried a Yankee staff that was without their ace.

Baseball is a results-based game, and you like to see how Gil gutted it out through 2025 despite not being 100%, but if his stuff is still diminished in 2026, that might raise some red flags for the Yankee organization. It's hard to see them give Gil a long leash with another sub-20% strikeout rate season.

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