2026 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 10: Patriots’ Postseason Hopes Take Major Hit

Week 10’s NFL action began in Munich, Germany, on Sunday morning, as the Lions took down the Patriots 35–10. The win for Detroit catapulted them into the NFC’s No. 2 seed heading into the rest of Sunday’s action, while New England is on the outside of the AFC playoff picture.

The rest of Sunday’s slate features six intradivision matchups—which include Kirk Cousins’s return to the Vikings lineup and a battle for first place in the AFC North between the Bengals and Steelers—as well as rookie Fernando Mendoza’s first start with the Raiders and a bottom-feeding matchup between the Colts and Dolphins.

Here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture.

Note: All postseason probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s playoff simulator.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Buffalo Bills

Record: 7–1 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: >99%

The Bills remain in control of the AFC’s No. 1 seed after their win over the Vikings last Monday night. Buffalo now faces an intradivision two-game stretch against the Jets in Week 10 and the Dolphins in Week 11, then a month-long gauntlet against the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, and Bears that will carry major implications for the AFC playoff picture.

No. 2: Denver Broncos

Record: 7–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

The Broncos extended their winning streak to five games with their 26–21 victory over the Panthers in Week 9, and now sit in the AFC West’s driver’s seat with a Week 10 bye. They’ll return in Week 11 to face Fernando Mendoza and the Raiders before a Black Friday battle against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 12. With both of its matchups against the Chiefs in the rearview, Denver sits in a favorable position to capture its second consecutive division title at season’s end.

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 98%

The Jaguars went all-in at the 2026 trade deadline last week, dealing for both safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle Jordan Davis to shore up their defense. Now at 6–2 and holding a comfortable lead in the AFC South, Jacksonville will take on the 1–7 Titans in two of the next three weeks.

No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 86%

The Steelers hold the tiebreaker over the Bengals in the AFC North based on win percentage in conference games, and are will face them in Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football. The winner will take over the first place in the division while the loser will fall back into the conference’s wild-card race.

No. 5: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 93%

After losing two straight games to the Seahawks and Broncos, the Chiefs got their mojo back in Week 9 with a 35–12 win over the Jets. Kansas City is now 6–2 heading into its Week 10 matchup against the Falcons in Atlanta and remains not only in the thick of the AFC wild-card race, but also within striking distance of an AFC West title.

No. 6: Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 93%

The Bengals kicked off last Sunday’s Week 9 action with a 34–17 win over the Falcons in Madrid. Cincinnati has now won four consecutive games after its 2–2 start and has positioned itself as a true AFC contender. They’ll take on the Steelers on Sunday Night Football with a shot to take over the top spot in the AFC North.

7. Cleveland Browns (5–4)

Record: 5–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 30%

The Browns jumped into the AFC’s No. 7 spot Sunday morning with the Patriots’ 35–10 loss to the Lions in Germany. Cleveland will welcome the Texans to Huntington Bank Field in Week 9 as it looks to put a halt to its two-game skid.

AFC: IN THE HUNT

8. New England Patriots (5–5)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4–5)
10. Baltimore Ravens (4–5)

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 7–1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 97%

The 49ers bounced back after their Week 7 loss to the Falcons with a 38–17 win over the Raiders in Week 9. San Francisco will face the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday before a Week 11 matchup against the 6–2 Vikings in Mexico City.

No. 2: Detroit Lions

Record: 7–2 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 81%

The Lions made light work of the Patriots in Germany on Sunday morning, logging a 35–10 win while jumping into first place in the NFC North as well as the conference’s No. 2 seed. Detroit will now head home on a five-game winning streak as it gets ready to welcome the Buccaneers to Ford Field next Sunday.

No. 3: New York Giants

Record: 5-3-1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 51%

The Giants kicked off Week 10 with a 24–21 loss to the Commanders on Thursday Night Football, falling to 5-3-1 on the season. New York remains in first place in the NFC East, but will be tested against four elite defenses in the Jaguars, 49ers, Seahawks and Browns over the next six weeks.

No. 4: Carolina Panthers

Record: 3–5 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 21%

The Panthers remain atop the NFC South despite losing to the Broncos in Week 9, and they have the Buccaneers to thank for it. Tampa Bay held the division lead for less than 12 hours before a 27–24 loss to the Bears dropped them to 3–6. Carolina’s 3–5 record will need to improve if it hopes to return to the postseason for a second consecutive year.

No. 5: Chicago Bears

Record: 7–2 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 88%

The Bears jumped into first place in the NFC North after the Vikings’ loss to the Bills on Monday night, but quickly fell back into the wild-card race after the Lions’ win over the Patriots in Germany. Chicago has won four consecutive games since Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury, and despite the quarterback throwing four interceptions in Week 9, looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender as we enter the second half of the season.

No. 6: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 77%

The Vikings’ 23–6 loss to the Bills on Monday night flipped their season on it’s head. The club has now lost two straight games, and with its offense looking nothing short of abysmal, traded for old friend Kirk Cousins at the trade deadline. Minnesota will now face the red-hot Packers, a matchup that carries with it significant ramifications in both the NFC North standings and the wild-card race.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 6–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 61%

The Packers made it known that they’re for real last Sunday after a 45–27 beatdown of the Patriots. Quarterback Jordan Love’s 362-yard, three-touchdown performance helped Green Bay notch its fifth win in the past six weeks ahead of Sunday’s all-important intradivision matchup with the Vikings.

NFC: IN THE HUNT

8. Seattle Seahawks (5–4)
9. Los Angeles Rams (5–4)
10. Dallas Cowboys (4–5)

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