This Worrying Stat Could Be Bad News for 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

What can we expect from Christian McCaffrey in 2026?

Jan 3, 2026; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) before the game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There seems to be a lot of ambiguity surrounding San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey heading into the season.

Let's look at his 2025 stats: he finished the 2025 regular season with 311 carries for 1,202 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. He also caught 102 passes for 924 yards and recorded seven receiving touchdowns.

On paper, it looks like a highly successful season. In fact, it was one of Christian McCaffrey's best, even if he wasn't quite as explosive as in previous years.

It would also be fair to say that his ability to stay healthy throughout the season played a significant role in helping the 49ers reach the playoffs.

But the uncertainty remains because of the sheer workload he faced last season. It was unlike anything he had experienced before, and his explosiveness obviously declined.

Valid questions remain heading into this season about whether he can maintain that workload while staying healthy, especially as he enters his 30s.

This statistic suggests history might not be on his side.

Jan 17, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) warms up prior to a game against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC Divisional Round game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"The average statistical decline for running backs who eclipse 370 touches in a season since 2016 is about 48 percent," wrote Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport.

"The average statistical decline for running backs who have topped 2,000 total yards in a season since 2010 is over 50 percent.

"Then there's the matter of us having seen this movie before with McCaffrey—twice. After the 30-year-old had 403 touches and 2,392 total yards in 2019, he played in just three games in 2020; after he piled up 2,023 total yards on just 339 touches in 2023, he played in four games in 2024.

"McCaffrey's workload last year was bigger than in either of those seasons. He's older than in either of those seasons."

The 49ers are still banking on McCaffrey, but they have also stated that they intend to reduce his workload. His father, Ed McCaffrey, made a valid point, noting that it will be difficult to take him off the field when he's performing at a high level.

The front office must be more careful than ever, as relying too heavily on McCaffrey could backfire. He's one of the team's most valuable players for a reason and a long-term injury would be catastrophic.

That said, McCaffrey has shared that he enters this year fully healthy, which wasn't the case this time last year. It's best to start the year off right.