Albert Breer’s Pre-Free Agency Takeaways: Why Linemen Could Receive ‘Wow’ Contracts

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Free agency is here, and so are the takeaways. Here’s what we’ve got on what will be a very, very busy Monday across the NFL …

Maxx Crosby trade

The Maxx Crosby blockbuster has been a long time coming. In case you missed it, the Raiders traded their best player, and one of the NFL’s elite pass rushers, to the Ravens on Friday night for the 14th pick in April’s draft and a first-rounder in what’s expected to be a loaded 2027 draft.

There’s risk on both sides. Over the weekend, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted a list of players, going back to the 1980s, who were traded for two first-round picks. There were 10 nonquarterbacks preceding Crosby, and the former Raiders’ star, closing in on his 29th birthday, was older than all of them. So, the Ravens are swinging in a way few have swung. And for Vegas, there’s an inherent risk dealing away a player of Crosby’s magnitude.

As such, it’ll be a while before we can declare winners and losers of the deal.

But we can dig a little deeper into the deal. So here goes:

• We’ve covered, over the past couple of months, how all this stemmed from the knee injury that Crosby sustained against the Chiefs in October. He and the team managed the injury from that point forward, knowing he’d need surgery after the season. Crosby was working through the pain. On Dec. 23, they had the scans repeated. The Raiders decided to shut him down for the last two weeks of the season. So, Crosby sought two second opinions, and both doctors told him he could play. However, the team stuck to its guns.

At that point, after conversations with wellness coordinator Alex Guerrero, Crosby felt the team ended his season to pursue the first pick, which fractured trust and led Crosby to storm out of the facility on Dec. 26, setting the stage for the two-month saga to follow.

• Quietly, after the season, Crosby requested a trade, intimating to owner Mark Davis, with whom he shares a very close relationship, and GM John Spytek that he wanted to work with the team and find a solution that worked for everyone. He even told Davis that he wanted to help the team win, “even if I’m not here.” Crosby said he didn’t want things to get hostile or play out in the media.

• The arrival of Klint Kubiak didn’t move the needle much. Crosby had a good meeting with the Raiders’ new coach on the day he was introduced to the media, and was happy for his position coach, Rob Leonard, when Kubiak promoted him to defensive coordinator. But by then, it would have been hard to get Crosby to want to stay. He never wanted to leave Vegas, but that line was crossed in December, and the idea of going through another regime change (Kubiak would’ve been his sixth head coach) became far less appealing, even as much as he loved Davis.

• At the same time, the Raiders would've been fine keeping Crosby and working the issue out if the right offer didn't come along. Last year, they made Crosby the highest-paid nonquarterback in NFL history and crafted a contract that could be traded if need be.

Crosby's due $30.8 million cash this year, $29.8 million in ’27, $27.3 million in ’28 and $28.2 million in ’29, with the last two years de facto team options.

That deal now becomes a value for the Ravens. As it stands, Crosby's likely to wait until after this year for any sort of adjustment, wanting to prove himself with his new team. If that happens, with Aidan Hutchinson and Parsons now over $45 million per year, and Will Anderson Jr. potentially getting $50 million per year from Houston this offseason, Crosby will be well-positioned.

• At the combine, the Raiders found a robust market for Crosby, as you’d expect.

The framework of Vegas’s ask at that point was built off the Dallas–Green Bay blockbuster in August, which brought Micah Parsons to the Packers for two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark. Because of Crosby’s age (he will be 29 in August), the Raiders knew it might be tough to find that kind of haul. But with the Bills, Bears, Cowboys and Ravens among those lined up as the league descended on Indianapolis, the Raiders had leverage to drive the price up.

• The Eagles did check in after those four teams and piqued Crosby’s interest, but Philly was never a factor with its focus on retaining Jaelan Phillips. The Bengals, on the verge of losing Trey Hendrickson in free agency, were another latecomer to the party. By then, over a quarter of the league’s 32 teams had shown some level of interest in Crosby, with a few others that he had less interest in going to throwing their hats in the ring as well.

• A dividing line for the Raiders was where the picks being discussed landed in the first round. The Cowboys held the 12th pick, while the Ravens had the 14th selection. And it led to teams bowing out. The Bills were the most prominent example, holding the 26th pick, which was 500 points on the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, less valuable than Dallas’s pick, and 400 points less valuable than Baltimore’s pick. For reference, 500 points is the value of the 40th pick in the draft, and 400 points is the value of the 50th pick.

That meant Buffalo would essentially have to add a second-round pick to whatever Dallas or Baltimore offered, which is why, in the end, the Bills bowed out of the bidding.

Baltimore Ravens defensive end Maxx Crosby — The Ravens traded two first-round picks to acquire defensive end Maxx Crosby from the Raiders. | Illustration by Bryce Wood. Chris Unger/Getty Images

• The Ravens’ willingness to go to two first-round picks and do it without any back-end complications wound up winning the day. Dallas would only go to first- and second-round picks and, like Baltimore, didn’t want to add a player to the package. From Baltimore’s perspective, the opportunity to add Crosby to a defense with stars Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and (if healthy) Nnamdi Madubuike, and give the team a better shot to win it all with Lamar Jackson, was too much to pass up.

Several people, including some who’ve worked in Baltimore, were stunned by the result because the deal was so un-Raven-like—the organization had never traded even one first-round pick, let alone two, for a veteran player. But Crosby fits GM Eric DeCosta’s profile in going after players well after they’ve gotten their first big contract, because there’s more certainty with those kinds of guys. And he fits what new coach Jesse Minter will look to build (to be fair, Crosby pretty much fits what any new coach would be looking to build).

A fascinating piece to this trade came into place at the very end, when Crosby told Kubiak, again, that he wanted to do whatever he could to help the Raiders win. He said he still loves the organization and loves Davis, and, cognizant of his legacy with the team, wanted everyone to come out of what’s been a messy few months in the best place possible.

Of course, by then, Crosby knew he was probably going to a really good one.

And Friday certainly confirmed that.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills’ moves over the past week set the stage for a defensive-focused approach in the next few days. And that’ll be necessary because new DC Jim Leonhard’s scheme is markedly different from what Sean McDermott and Bob Babich ran last year—some edge guys, like Joey Bosa and A.J. Epenesa, for example, aren’t quite the fits for Buffalo that they were previously.

Yes, Buffalo could still add to its offense. But trading for DJ Moore and re-signing Connor McGovern absolutely takes some of the pressure off that side of the ball. So here’s a little more on how those two deals came together for the Bills:

• The first piece of the Moore acquisition is how Joe Brady’s institutional knowledge on the 28-year-old—the two were together in Carolina for the better part of two years—played into the acquisition. As the Bills saw it, Moore was better than any free-agent receiver and would be their best receiver coming in without the team having to guess how he’d fit in Brady’s offense. Brady also knew that Moore was a top-shelf teammate and could be a torchbearer and even a captain for him in his first year.

Moore was privately over the moon when the news of the trade came down, and the Bills were O.K. paying the freight (a 2026 second-round pick, with a fifth-rounder coming back with Moore) to get him at a rate of $23.5 million per year for the next four seasons.

As a versatile piece that Brady can move around and play inside and out, Moore gives the Bills another receiver, adding to Khalil Shakir, who can be a force after the catch. No, he’s not a traditional No. 1, and he plays more like a hybrid than a pure wideout, but his presence should change the dynamic for guys such as Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook.

• McGovern was, indeed, a player the Bills weren’t sure they’d be able to keep.

Over the past couple of weeks, there’d been concern among many teams in need that the center market was about to explode, as the guard market did in 2025 (more on that in a minute). With that in mind, some believed that McGovern was going to get between $15 million and $18 million per year, which might’ve made it tough for Buffalo to keep him.

But over the past few days, McGovern showed a genuine desire to stay with the team, Josh Allen did a little recruiting, and the team was able to hammer out a four-year, $52 million deal to keep him in Buffalo.

So, now, the Bills have a pretty good idea of what the offense is going to look like, and that’s even with the likely departure of a solid starter at guard in David Edwards.

As for what they’ll look for on defense, as we said, the Bills did have their toe in the Maxx Crosby sweepstakes, so the edge is a logical place to look first. John Franklin-Myers would make some sense, too, as an inside/outside piece for Leonhard’s front, but the bidding there could wind up pricing the Bills out. What seems certain is that Buffalo still has some remodeling to do on defense, with Allen’s unit in good shape.

Tyler Linderbaum

Perhaps the most talked about name in league circles over the past week has been none other than Tyler Linderbaum. The Ravens’ center isn’t a perfect player—he can get pushed around a little bit as an undersized athlete for his position, and last year wasn’t his best year.

But he’s also a player among the very best in the league at what he does, reaching the free-agent market. The fact that he’s hitting the market is primarily circumstantial. All offensive linemen are grouped together in the formula that determines the numbers for the fifth-year option for former first-round picks, and for franchise and transition tags. That means guards and centers have their options and tags at tackle numbers, which is why the Ravens declined to pick up Linderbaum’s option and chose not to tag him.

My understanding is Linderbaum’s camp is shooting for $25 million per year, which would be a whopping 38% increase on the $18 million per year that the Chiefs’ Creed Humphrey got in 2024 to become the NFL’s highest-paid center.

I’m not sure if Linderbaum will get there. However, I’d expect the Commanders, Raiders and Browns all to be in the bidding, and the tenor of it would affect a bunch of other teams, as well.

One example was the Chargers, whose GM Joe Hortiz was in Baltimore when Linderbaum was drafted, signing Commanders C Tyler Biadasz to a three-year, $30 million deal after Bradley Bozeman retired. That’s more, on a per-year basis, than Biadasz was making in Washington. Another example was the Bears trading for Patriots center Garrett Bradbury after the surprise retirement of Drew Dalman.

In both cases, the teams forecasted an explosion in the center market and jumped on more affordable options before it happened. Most believed McGovern was going to be part of it before he decided that he’d rather stay in Buffalo. And now, we’ll see how far Linderbaum pushes the financial envelope, with guys such as Carolina’s Cade Mays standing as the potential beneficiaries after he finds a new home.

Offensive linemen demand

The other linemen won’t come cheap, either. This is Bill Parcells’s old planet theory coming to life: Parcells’s premise being that there are only so many big people who can move a certain way on earth, so when they become available, you better go get them.

Front and center on Monday will be Chargers guard Zion Johnson, a good-not-great player who’s positioned to take home a monster deal at more than $18 million per year. The expectation is that David Edwards will go for between $16 million and $18 million. Other guys that have flaws—Jets guard Alijah Vera-Tucker can’t stay healthy, Houston’s Ed Ingram and Vegas’s Dylan Parham aren’t exactly All-Pros—might not be far off from Johnson’s number.

Maybe the most interesting one is Commanders guard Chris Paul (no, not that Chris Paul), who appears to have priced himself out of Washington with teams like Cleveland in hot pursuit. Paul became a full-time starter for the first time three weeks into his fourth pro season and is trending to one of those “He got what?!” sorts of deals.

Meanwhile, at tackle, Packers free agent Rasheed Walker could reach $20 million per year. Walker is a former seventh-round pick who’s become a solid left tackle, having started the past three years at the position for Matt LaFleur. What he’s not is Trent Williams. But he is a rarity in that he’s a starting-level player at left tackle, a position where young starters don’t make it to free agency, and that’s enough.

Anyway, expect a lot of the “Wow!” contracts over the next couple of days to go to big men.

Alec Pierce

If I had to guess on the ƒree agent who makes the most, give me Alec Pierce. This, to me, is another contract where the expected price tag has already led to other teams seeking alternate paths, with Buffalo’s acquisition of Moore an example.

My guess would be that Pierce’s deal will fall between $28 million and $30 million per year.

The Patriots, Raiders and 49ers are all teams to watch. Each is also expected to be in on other receivers. New England’s been in contact with Philly on A.J. Brown (more on that coming). Vegas is a logical destination for Seahawks free agent Rashid Shaheed, who was with Kubiak the second half of last year in Seattle (and in New Orleans the season before that). San Francisco, meanwhile, would be a fit for Packers free agent Romeo Doubs, as the Niners consider post–Brandon Aiyuk plans.

Meanwhile, the Colts would love to have Pierce back and appear willing to pay the freight to keep him. The issue is that Pierce wants to know who his quarterback will be. While the Colts will likely keep Daniel Jones, he can enter into negotiations with other teams (we’ll have more on him, too).

Either way, Pierce is at the front of the line of a group of receivers expected to cash in. Shaheed and Doubs could get close to $20 million per year. And Giants free agent Wan’Dale Robinson could get $15 million per year, with Tennessee among the teams expected to check on him—Titans OC Brian Daboll had Robinson with the Giants and is said to really like him, and the slot position is very valuable in Daboll’s Patriots-style offense.

Another receiver likely to get more than people expect is Vikings free agent Jalen “Speedy” Nailor, who did a lot with the limited opportunities he had playing alongside Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in Minnesota.

Daniel Jones

I do think Daniel Jones will stay in Indianapolis, but there’s a big gap that needs to be made up in the coming days. The Colts’ initial offer to Jones was in the range of Sam Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million deal last offseason. Jones’s camp countered that, based on the leverage a franchise tag would have given him, a deal worth $50 million per year would be more in the ballpark of what he’d take if he did a deal before this week.

So rather than franchise Jones, the Colts put the transition tag on him. And here we are.

I do believe Jones wants to be in Indianapolis. He’s rehabbing from a torn Achilles that is going to cost him most, if not all, of his offseason. Given that, it seems obvious that his best chance to have a great 2026 would be in a familiar place, where he doesn’t have to learn a new offense or new teammates. That, of course, is Indianapolis.

What, then, would motivate the Colts to do a deal, rather than have Jones play on the $37.833 million tender? Here’s what: If Jones plays great in 2026, then the team would either transition tag him again in ’27 at $45.4 million or franchise him, and at that point, he’d have the leverage to ask for top-of-the-market money, since a third tag is prohibitively expensive. That doesn’t mean the Colts have to pay him $50 million per year now. However, it does mean that it’d behoove them to explore a longer-term deal.

The benefit for Jones would be having a chance to really build something with his teammates in Indianapolis and, if they can get a deal done fast enough, giving the Colts a chance to bring Pierce back into a skill group that has Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren and Josh Downs on hand.

So, the best thing for everyone is to hammer out a deal on Monday morning. We’ll see.

Running back Kenneth Walker III — Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III will hit the open market at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, when players can officially sign with teams. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Running backs

I think some smart, experienced general managers are going to throw their hats in the ring on the running back market. That includes Kansas City’s Brett Veach, Denver’s George Paton and New Orleans’s Mickey Loomis.

Two years ago, three of the smartest organizations in the league—Philadelphia, Green Bay and Baltimore—signed top-of-the-market backs in free agency. It got my attention then, and those teams wound up hitting on Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, respectively.

As I see it, those teams looked at the landscape and saw a position that had been devalued by the league to the point where signing a great player was actually a good value.

So, there might be a similar opportunity this year with Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III available at perhaps $14 million per year, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne Jr. shooting to get around $10 million per, and down-the-line guys such as Tampa’s Rachaad White and Carolina’s Rico Dowdle potentially being nice values after that.

I think Denver and Kansas City will give Seattle competition for Walker. My guess would be that New Orleans will make a run at Etienne. And I think if Denver doesn’t land Walker, Dowdle could make sense as a more physical back to pair with RJ Harvey.

Here’s the other thing: The position is a little like center in that there aren’t a ton of great options in the draft, which generally will lead to teams being a little more aggressive in free agency. Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love should go inside the top 10, and his teammate Jadarian Price will probably go in the second round. After that, there may not be another back taken until the fourth round.

To be sure, that’s part of why Houston, which would’ve been in this fray, traded for David Montgomery last week. And it’s why I do think teams like Chiefs, Broncos and Saints, and maybe a little further down the line the Giants, will work to fill their depth charts at the position now.

Philadelphia Eagles

Where the Eagles’ negotiation with Phillips goes could set the course for the edge rushers. Philly traded a third-rounder to get Vic Fangio’s old friend from Miami in midseason, and got enough from him to be aggressive in trying to keep him around.

The question is at what cost, with the expectation being Phillips—a good player with a long injury history for a 26-year-old—will look to land around $25 million per year.

Whether Phillips gets there could, in some way, be affected by what happens with soon-to-be-ex-Bengal Trey Hendrickson. The Colts made a trade offer for Hendrickson during the summer and have his former Cincinnati coordinator, Lou Anarumo, to recruit him. The Cowboys are another team lurking for Hendrickson after their run at Crosby failed.

Meanwhile, Chargers free agent Odafe Oweh turned down in-season overtures to do a deal with the team that traded for him before the deadline, then had 7.5 sacks in 12 games for Los Angeles, and is set up to be next up after Hendrickson and Phillips.

Also, while we’re there, Khalil Mack’s one-year, $18 million deal with the Chargers probably will help older vets like Joey Bosa, who are positioned to do one-year deals in eight figures.

A.J. Brown

While we’re on the Eagles, the A.J. Brown situation feels like it’s at a standstill. The comp I’ve heard for Philly’s ask is the 2022 Davante Adams trade between the Raiders and Packers.. Adams was 29 when that deal was done, and he went for Vegas’s first- and second-round picks in ’22. I’m not sure anyone will go that far to get him, since I’ve heard other teams used the Bills-Texans’ 2024 Stefon Diggs trade as a comp. Diggs went for a Day 3 pick swap in ’24 and a ’25 second-round pick, a far cry from what Green Bay got for Adams.

Only further complicating all this is Moore, who certainly hasn’t been what Brown’s been the past two years, bringing back a second-rounder for Chicago, and Trent McDuffie netting first-, fifth- and sixth-round selections this year, and a third-rounder next year for Kansas City.

That’s why I’m starting to get skeptical about the aforementioned gap being bridged.

Brown’s camp has certainly done its homework on interested teams, and I’ve heard that the Bills, Chargers, Chiefs and Patriots were on his wish list. Buffalo, having done the deal for Moore, is no longer involved. I don’t think the Chargers are either, with their focus on the offensive line and the edge positions (with a big chunk of money/cap now gone to Mack). And ditto on the Chiefs, who are zeroed in on the running back spot, and have a desire to replenish the roster with the picks they got in the McDuffie trade.

Obviously, Brown and Mike Vrabel have an established relationship, and the Patriots have a need, post-Diggs, so that would be a natural landing spot. But how far is New England willing to go to get Brown? Would Pierce be more appealing, given that he’s younger, and the Patriots wouldn’t have to give up picks to get him? Is there another team that’s going to emerge as a suitor? Would Philly hang onto him, with the hope that any underlying issues resolve themselves in the coming months?

Stay tuned.

Quick-hitters

Let’s jump in on some quick-hitters …

• Two older veterans that I think might leave their longtime homes: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans and Saints DE Cam Jordan. Evans’s financial aspirations on a one-year deal are beyond where the Bucs are willing to go right now. Jordan, meanwhile, is frustrated with the Saints’ negotiating position.

• Two off-ball linebackers stand above the rest, those being Jacksonville’s Devin Lloyd and Green Bay’s Quay Walker. The Packers’ trade for Zaire Franklin over the weekend was a tacit admission that they’re losing Walker. Lloyd’s camp is said to be looking for $20 million per year. At any rate, I do think both will get to at least $15 million per year.

• At tight end, Tennessee’s Chig Okonkwo and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely loom as move types, and both have connections to New England. Okonkwo played for Vrabel in Tennessee, and Likely is from Boston. Josh McDaniels’s offense is one that can certainly feature those tight ends, too. So if the Patriots don’t wind up signing Pierce or trading for Brown, then this might be one area to watch, particularly with Diggs gone as a slot receiver and Austin Hooper a free agent.

• I could see a couple of other veteran tight ends—Tampa’s Cade Otton and Philly’s Dallas Goedert—staying put if the market doesn’t get too out of whack. I see both teams as open to bringing their guys back to the position.

• After a couple of years of piecing together their secondary and pushing investments toward the defensive front and offensive skill positions, the Rams are moving money back into the defensive backfield. They did a three-year, $38.25 million deal with Quentin Lake on New Year’s Day, a three-year $36 million deal with Kam Curl last week, and, on Sunday, a four-year, $124 million deal with the newly-traded-for McDuffie.

• Curl’s deal should help frame prices at safety. Kansas City’s Bryan Cook will almost certainly get more than Curl, but Arizona’s Jalen Thompson, Seattle’s Coby Bryant and Indianapolis’s Nick Cross should be right around Curl’s contract.

• McDuffie’s deal will be of great interest to Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon and New England’s Christian Gonzalez.

• As for free agents at that position, I’d bet Seattle’s Tariq Woolen, New Orleans’s Alontae Taylor and Kansas City’s Jaylen Watson will top the market at between $15 million and $18 million per year. After that, my guess is guys such as the Rams’ Cobie Durant and the Seahawks’ Josh Jobe top $10 million per year, with one under-the-radar name likely to do a nice deal being the Giants’ Cor'Dale Flott.

• Maybe Arizona for Malik Willis (although Jimmy Garoppolo’s in that mix, too), or maybe Miami. My guess would be he’ll land between $20 million and $25 million per year.

• Finally, expect Franklin-Myers to land around $20 million per year. We mentioned Buffalo for him as a logical landing spot. Tennessee’s another team to watch, with Franklin-Myers’s old coach, Robert Saleh, there. He has inside/outside versatility as a defensive lineman, unique to this year’s free-agent class, and would appeal to any team that plays an aggressive style up front, with the Niners another team that makes schematic sense.