Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Cincinnati's Finale Against Baltimore

The Bengals are the NFL's best team against the spread this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Jan 8, 2023 12:28 PM EST
Original:
Jan 6, 2023

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The 2022-23 regular season has sped by as we get set for the final game between Cincinnati (-8.5) and Baltimore.

Bengal Bets justifiably got nullified due to the Damar Hamlin situation, but we are ready to finish strong during the first week of legal sports betting in Ohio.

One nugget to note before we start is the Bengals' record against the spread this season. They are 12-3, and a cover on Sunday would tie them with the 2015 Vikings, 1999 Rams, and 1991 Cowboys for the third-best ATS record since 1990.

Season Record: 21-21 (-3.06 units)

Bengals -8.5 (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) takes the field in the first quarter of the NFL Week 17 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Monday, Jan. 2, 2023. The game was suspended with suspended in the first quarter after Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin (3) was taken away in an ambulance following a play. Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals Week 17 — © Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK

These teams are going in opposite directions entering the final week of the season. Baltimore has scored 20 points or fewer points in five consecutive games for the first time since 2013.

All while Lamar Jackson continues to miss practice. The former MVP hasn't been on the field in over two weeks and is not playing Sunday. Backup Tyler Huntley (shoulder) is also dealing with an injury that's kept him limited all week.

The difference between them this season is drastic:

Huntley: 2-2 SU/ATS; 42.3 QBR; -13.5% DVOA; 39th of 64 QBs EPA/play
Jackson: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS; 59.7 QBR; 5% DVOA; 16th of 64 QBs EPA/play

The offensive ineptitude will keep Baltimore from making this a decent game. Their defense has allowed just four touchdowns over the past month, which is astounding until you look at the opposing offenses.

The five teams ranked 32nd, 29th, 16th, 19th, and 29th in scoring. Cincinnati ranks seventh leaguewide in scoring, and some strong trends lean their way.

Burrow is a career 21-6 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or above.
Burrow playing in 40 degrees or fewer temperatures: 5-0 SU/ATS
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS at home this season.
Harbaugh against AFC North teams over .500: 16-21-3 ATS

Add in the extra fuel of the latest playoff changes, plus, the emotion of Monday Night, and you get a very motivated Bengals team. They have everything to play for at Paycor Stadium.

Joe Mixon O51.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Sep 29, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) during warmups prior to the game against the Miami Dolphins at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports — Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The game script should benefit Joe Mixon's rushing prop on Sunday. The Bengals will lead early and often then grind this game away with the all-around weapon.

Mixon's gone over this prop in 8-of-13 games played this season, and Baltimore's defense looks worn down over the past few weeks. Defensive tackle Calais Campbell is questionable and could return for this game but I don't think he'll be enough to turn around 4.3 yards per carry allowed over the past three games.

Since Week 13, Baltimore is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed, and 13th in EPA/rush allowed. The discrepancy means volume is the key to getting Mixon over his total.

He owns a 55% success rate this season (eighth among all RBs min. 100 carries). Get him enough carries, and Mixon punches this ticket.

Joe Burrow O272.5 Yards (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) resets between plays in the second quarter of the NFL Week 14 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. The Bengals led 13-3 at halftime. Cleveland Browns At Cincinnati Bengals Week 14 — Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Bengals' offense is a freight train right now and a lot of the reasons behind the spread pick play a role here. The MVP candidate is fourth in EPA + CPOE composite since Week 13 and has hit this mark in 8-of-15 games this season.

Down-to-down, Cincinnati is one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL, ranking third in overall success rate since Week 13 and first in dropback success rate.

They are gladly dinking and dunking the ball through the air for six points.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' pass defense is trending the opposite way. Since Week 13, they rank 23rd in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate allowed. They are not the same defense that held Burrow to 217 yards passing in Week 5.

1/8 UPDATE: Burrow's prop is down to 259.5 yards amidst the lineup changes from Baltimore.

The Bengals and Ravens clash at 1 p.m. ET this Sunday on CBS. Watch via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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