'Research-driven' NFL mock draft declares Bills will use Round 1 pick for defense

The mathematical probability says the Buffalo Bills will fill a defensive need with their first-round pick at the NFL Draft in Green Bay.

Sep 28, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Ryan Williams (2) makes a circus catch with Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Malaki Starks (24) defending at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama defeated Georgia 41-34 | Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills will choose a defensive player at No. 30 overall in the upcoming NFL Draft according to the data analytics.

Next Gen Stats Research & Analytics expert Mike Band unveiled a "research-driven" mock draft that added the custom-built Draft IQ tool to the process for the first time. According to Band, Draft IQ (powered by Amazon QuickSight) "evaluates every team's projected draft targets, top needs, front office tendencies and so much more."

Band listed the top-three probabilities for the Bills' first position drafted as defensive line (38 percent), cornerback (21 percent) and safety (17 percent).

The way the first-round board falls in the simulation, the Bills pass on SEC cornerbacks Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky) and Trey Amos (Ole Miss) to draft Georgia safety Malaki Starks at No. 30 overall.

Nov 23, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Jaydon Blue (23) is tackled by Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Maxwell Hairston (1) during the first half | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Hairston went one selection later to the Minnesota Vikings who traded into the Kansas City Chiefs slot. It's also worth noting that South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori went to the Washington Commanders at No. 29 overall. As for Michigan's Kenneth Grant, the coveted defensive tackle prospect was long gone by the time the Bills picked with the Arizona w selecting him at No. 16 overall.

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"Bills cornerbacks coach Jahmile Addae was the primary recruiter who brought Starks to Georgia. In Sean McDermott’s cloud-heavy scheme, smart and rangy safety play is just as vital as strong cornerback depth," said Band.

Starks, a two-time All-America First Team selection, started for the 2022 CFP National Champions as a true freshman. The top-tier high school recruit is now a Top 50 prospect with first-round potential on most draft boards.

His 40-yard dash time (4.50) was in the bottom half of NFL Combine participants at the safety position, but Starks still has a noticeable on-field athleticism. In 2024, the junior accounted for 77 tackles over 13 starts. He also returned four punts.

The NFL Draft is set for April 24 through 26 in Green Bay. The Bills hold 10 selections, beginning with the No. 30 overall pick.

Feb 28, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Georgia defensive back Malaki Starks (DB50) participates in drills during the 2025 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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