3 stats that will define Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 11 matchup

A critical non-conference matchup will take place in Orchard Park on Sunday, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to meet the Buffalo Bills for a 1 p.m. meeting at Highmark Stadium.

It’s not often these two teams square off with one another, with their last affair coming in Week 8 of the 2023 season. The Bills got the better of the Bucs the previous time around, but the two teams look far different at this point in the 2025 campaign.

Taking that into account, here are three intriguing insights from Next Gen Stats that will define this year’s edition of this AFC/NFC crossover contest:

Press him

Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has been mighty impressive this season, providing a steady force for the Tampa Bay passing game in the face of a couple of key injuries at the position earlier in the year.

The first-year pro has done much of his damage while facing off coverage (five-plus yards of cushion), recording 462 yards receiving in such situations, which is the third-most of any NFL pass catcher.

However, as remarkable as he has been when given room to work, he has not been as dangerous when performing against press coverage (less than three yards of cushion) this season. He is one of only three wide receivers with at least 20 targets against press coverage to be held without a touchdown, while his yards per target average against such alignments is over three yards fewer as opposed to when he has faced off coverage in 2025.

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Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Maxwell Hairston (31) waits for the snap against the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

The Bills have utilized off coverage at the third-lowest rate (42.4%) of any team in the league this season and their low tendency to do so would appear to bode well for their plan to combat Egbuka this weekend. Perhaps Buffalo could also benefit from using rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston to press his first-year adversary along the outside on Sunday.

Hairston has added an element of speed with a dash of athleticism to an otherwise bland Bills' cornerback room. And although he struggled at times against Miami Dolphins veteran WR Jaylen Waddle a week ago, he is the best option the Bills have in trying to defend against Egbuka.

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Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Blitzkrieg

One of the strengths of the Tampa Bay defense this season has been its ability to generate free rushers, resulting in a top 10 sack total and the No. 2 quarterback pressure rate (40.5%) in the NFL through its first nine games.

The chaos the Buccaneers’ pass rush has been able to produce has largely been a result of their high blitz rate of 31.8%, which is the sixth highest in the league. Their tendency to bring extra men on the blitz has helped lead to an incredible number of unblocked rushers flooding the pocket of opposing passers.

Through nine games, Tampa Bay has generated 48 unblocked pressures and 10 unblocked sacks, both of which are the most in the NFL. For the Bills’ passing game to succeed in this game, they must establish an effective protection plan up front in order to slow the Buccaneers' bread and butter while giving quarterback Josh Allen time to work.

Jun 11, 2025; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (98) works out during Minicamp at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Reinforcements on the way

It’s no secret how injuries have significantly impacted the Bills’ efforts on both sides of the ball this season. Entering Week 10, Buffalo has eight defensive players on Injured Reserve, but could be set to get one of them back as soon as Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay.

Rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders is one of several Buffalo defenders who may be in line to return to the lineup on Sunday afternoon, a list that includes cornerback Christian Benford (groin), edge rusher A.J. Epenesa (concussion) and linebacker Shaq Thompson.

During last week's loss to Miami, Bills Week 1 defensive starters played just 42.9% of the snaps, which was the second-lowest rate among the 28 teams that played in Week 10. That being said, with a load of reinforcements on the way this week, Buffalo will be near a return to normalcy with the stretch run approaching.

The Bills have played 33 different defenders this season, which is tied for the second most in the NFL. The quicker they can get back near their original 11, the better.

(The various insights within this article are courtesy of Next Gen Stats.)

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