Bills vs. Buccaneers Preview: Prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

What a roller coaster ride the Buffalo Bills’ 2025 season has been.

Following a thrilling victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, the Bills were humbled in Week 10, falling to the lowly Miami Dolphins in dismal fashion. Now, with a quality NFC opponent coming to town in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo is once again set to be tested on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills (6-3) are in significant need of a victory in order to keep up with the AFC East-leading New England Patriots (9-2), who are in the clubhouse with a Week 11 victory they achieved on Thursday night over the division rival New York Jets.

On the other side, the Buccaneers (6-3) also need a win, not so much to maintain their position in the NFC South standings, but more so to remain in the hunt for a top-two seed in the conference.

Both teams are dealing with injuries that will leave a few significant contributors unavailable for this matchup. With that said, two of the league’s most talented quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, have remained upright through 10 weeks and are ready to battle it out in as critical a crossover matchup as there has been in the NFL this season.

The Week 11 tilt is, at this point, the final Sunday, 1 p.m. matchup scheduled to be played inside the current Highmark Stadium, which could create some extra pomp and circumstance surrounding this contest.

With both teams chomping at the bit for a victory, let’s dive into the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s conference matchup.

Baker Mayfield Josh Allen — Aug 23, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) greets Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) after a preseason game at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of Friday afternoon, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay is 3-1 against the spread as road underdogs this season, with its most impressive victory coming in Week 5, when the Bucs were a 3.5-point road underdog against the Seattle Seahawks and went on to win a shootout 38-35.

The Bills have yet to cover as a home favorite this season, finishing 0-3 in their previous opportunities. Buffalo was most recently a 7.5-point favorite over the Patriots in Week 5 but ultimately fell 23-20.

MORE: Gabe Davis gives revealing status update for Buffalo Bills in Week 11 vs. Buccaneers

Aug 23, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Tyrell Shavers (80) catches the ball over Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Bryce Hall (34) for a touchdown during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Weather report

For the first time this season, inclement weather is expected for a Bills’ home game.

It’s expected to be cloudy with temperatures in the upper 30s on Sunday in Orchard Park, with a few snow showers in the forecast as well. High winds in the 20-25 mph range are also anticipated.

Hunker down, Bills fans. You could be in for a turbulent game day weather-wise.

Bills injuries

The Bills have already declared tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) and defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis (shoulder) as out for this week’s game against the Buccaneers. Both players sustained their respective injuries during this past week’s game against the Dolphins and did not practice all week. It will be the second game Kincaid, the team’s second-leading receiver, has missed this season.

Several other players who had appeared on Buffalo’s injury report throughout the week are all expected to be healthy and available to suit up for the Bills on Sunday, including wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle/rib), cornerback Christian Benford (groin), linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle), edge rusher Joey Bosa (wrist), EDGE A.J. Epenesa (concussion), wide receiver Joshua Palmer (knee/ankle), defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (wrist) and linebacker Dorian Williams (groin).

Linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring) and rookie DT T.J. Sanders, who has been on IR since week 5 due to a knee injury, along with the Bills’ top two nickel cornerbacks, Cam Lewis (calf) and Taron Johnson (groin), have all been deemed questionable. Johnson appeared to have a setback late in the week, casting a bit of doubt on his status for Sunday’s game.

MORE: Key offensive player may return to help Buccaneers against Buffalo Bills in Week 11

Buccaneers injuries

Tampa Bay will be without two key offensive contributors on Sunday, as starting running back Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) and star wide receiver Chris Godwin (fibula) have both been declared out.

Irving had returned to practice this week for the first time since sustaining shoulder and foot injuries during a Week 4 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, while Godwin returned from a fibula injury that had kept him out since a Week 5 win over the Seattle Seahawks. But despite their participation during their team's week of practice, neither player has been deemed healthy enough to suit up against Buffalo.

Without Irving, the Buccaneers will turn to Raachad White and Sean Tucker to lead their backfield on Sunday. With Godwin on the mend, expect a heavy workload for WR Emeka Egbuka, while Tez Johnson will also factor into what Tampa Bay does through the air offensively. Johnson has recorded 13 receptions for 143 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks.

Linebacker Haason Reddick, offensive lineman Ben Bredeson and Markees Watts have also been declared out for the Week 11 matchup due to ankle/knee and hand injuries, respectively. Tampa Bay is also without WR Mike Evans, who remains on IR with a collarbone injury.

Sean McDermott Todd Bowles — Sep 10, 2017; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott and New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles shake hands following the game at New Era Field. | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Coaching matchup

Sunday’s game will feature a veteran coaching matchup, with former New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles in his fourth season in Tampa Bay. Bowles has compiled a record of 33-27 during his four years with the Buccaneers, with his career winning percentage sitting at .458, largely impacted by a tough four-year run with the Jets.

McDermott’s winning percentage of .643 ranks sixth among active coaches with more than one year of head coach experience.

The Bills head coach is 3-2 against Bowles all-time, including in the two coaches’ most recent meeting, a 24-18 win over the Buccaneers in Week 8 of the 2023 season.

MORE: Buffalo Bills rookie says he's ready to return, contribute for banged-up D-line

Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle David Onyemata (90) and defensive tackleSam Roberts (99) applie the pressure on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) who is looking to show downfield during the second half of a game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Top storyline

The Buccaneers’ defense has recorded the sixth-highest blitz rate in the NFL this season, which has produced an incredibly high quarterback pressure rate of 40.5%, which is second-best in the league, per NFL Pro.

Allen has proven to struggle with extra rushers this season, particularly when going up against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, when the Falcons’ defense dialed up blitzes on 55.9% of Allen’s dropbacks, which was the highest rate he had seen since Week 8 of the 2021 season. During the loss to Atlanta, the Bills quarterback was pressured on 44.1% of his dropbacks, a season-high rate, while being sacked four times, also a season-high. Allen finished the game with one of his worst passing performances of the season, completing just 57.7% of his throws while being intercepted twice.

If Allen and the Bills are to get back on track with a win this week, it will start with creating an effective game plan against the Bucs' blitz to allow their signal caller to operate freely within the pocket, in hopes his wide receivers will get open downfield. If the Buccaneers can get after Allen, speed him up and down him in the pocket, things could once again get a bit dicey for the Buffalo offense this week.

Player to watch

With three of Tampa Bay’s top playmakers out due to injury, expect rookie WR Emeka Egbuka to be featured heavily within the Buccaneers’ passing game against the Bills.

The No. 19 overall pick has garnered 34 targets over his team’s past three games, hauling in a combined 13 receptions for 208 yards and a touchdown in that trio of matchups. He is coming off an explosive six-reception, 115-yard, one-touchdown effort against the New England Patriots a week ago.

The 6-foot-1, 205-pound pass catcher spends time both in the slot and along the outside and must be at the forefront of the Bills’ defensive game plan on Sunday afternoon.

It appears as if starting cornerback Christian Benford (groin) is set to return for the Bills after a one-game absence. However, Buffalo may be without their top two slot cornerbacks, which may pose a problem on the inside.

Prediction — Bills 24, Buccaneers 21

With both teams missing important pieces offensively, I’m expecting points to be at a premium early in this game.

Even when healthy, the Bills have lacked consistency on the offensive side of the ball throughout the season, while the Buccaneers have also experienced offensive woes of their own in recent weeks. In addition, the weather could have a significant impact on how both teams operate through the air.

Nevertheless, Allen and Mayfield are two of the best quarterbacks in the league, and I expect they’ll figure things out as the game wears on.

After a slow start, both offenses will find themselves, with Allen going for over 200 yards passing, James Cook nearing 100 yards rushing, and Dawson Knox filling the void with a touchdown reception. Defensively, the pass rush will get after Mayfield and help force a couple of Tampa Bay turnovers.

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