Big early-season favorites trend gives Bills' backers no reason to worry vs. Saints

A 15.5-point spread is not too much for this stat that defends big favorites

Nov 25, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) fights off New Orleans Saints linebacker Kwon Alexander (5). | Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills are massive 15.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints in Week 4 as of Thursday morning, and such a significant difference may cause backers to be cautious with their approach.

That's just on the surface. When one digs deeper into the numbers, one finds that big-time favorites in the first five weeks of an NFL season have quite the track record.

Maybe, it's because of these overmatched teams still trying to find themselves or the continued stability of the favorites.

Since 2010, teams that are favored by more than 14 points in the first five weeks of a given season are 10-3 against the spread, and the Bills have played a part in such situations in the Josh Allen era.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs for a first down against the Houston Texans on October 3, 2021. The Bills covered a 17.5-point spread as favorites that day. | Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

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In a Week 4 matchup against the Houston Texans four years ago, the Bills covered a 17.5-point spread in a 40-0 rainy dismantling, holding the opposition to 109 yards of offense. They also covered a 14.5-point spread against the Panthers in Week 15 and a 16.5-point spread against the New York Jets in Week 18.

In the games against the Texans and Jets, the Bills forced five turnovers, something they've accomplished four times since 2019. It emphasizes an opportunistic nature on defense, something that's been a staple since Sean McDermott took over as the head man in 2017.

If the Bills can continue this excellent trend of covering big spreads as an early-season favorite, look for the defense to take the ball away from Spencer Rattler and Co.

Jan 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass over the New York Jets. The Bills covered a 16.5-point spread as favorites against the Jets in Week 18 of 2021. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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