Bills’ Super Bowl Odds Still Strong Despite Patriots' A.J. Brown Heist

Buffalo will see a familiar foe in Brown joining the Patriots

Former Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) during warmups against the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC Wild Card Round game at Lincoln Financial Field. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots trade finally happened. So, how does that impact the Buffalo Bills?

According to Vegas oddsmakers, it should not affect them too much. Iain MacMillan reported for Sports Illustrated on Monday that FanDuel’s Super Bowl odds only moved from +1700 to +1600 for New England. Meanwhile, the Bills are still ahead, boasting odds of +1000. Those odds tie with the Ravens as the best in the AFC.

Looking at the move, how should Brown’s arrival with the Patriots impact Buffalo’s path to the AFC East title, which would be a first since 2024, after New England won it en route to its first Super Bowl appearance since 2018.

AJ BROWN IS HEADED TO THE PATRIOTS PER @RapSheet & @TomPelissero 😳

The Pats are +1600 to win the Super Bowl this season @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/dvOLqBzFAY

— br_betting (@br_betting) June 1, 2026

Matching up against Brown, Patriots

New England added a true No. 1 WR in Brown, a player with six career 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. The three-time second-team All-Pro is set to fill the void that former Bills star Stefon Diggs left the Pats after his release this spring.

Buffalo's new-look defense under DC Jim Leonhard will have to defend an attack featuring Brown, newly acquired WR Romeo Doubs, Kayshon Boutte, and, of course, Drake Maye at the trigger. The soon-to-be 29-year-old should expect to see a lot of Christian Benford with this trade to the AFC East.

Brown posted solid numbers in a Week 17 win over Buffalo in 2025. Overall in his career, he's hauled in 26 catches for an average of 61 yards per game against the Bills in five matchups.

Former Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) prepares to catch a pass against Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford (47) during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Odds affected by 2026 schedule

What may be affecting these odds the most is the Pats' daunting schedule. Playing a first-place schedule as the reigning AFC East champions after playing a last-place slate in 2025.

From visits to Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, Jacksonville, and a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle to home matchups with Denver and Green Bay, it's rational for Vegas to list New England's projected win total at 9.5, according to DraftKings.

The Bills, however, are projected at 10.5 wins, even with an equally stout slate. Even with the Patriots coming off a Super Bowl appearance, odds favor a Josh Allen-led offense over Maye's.

Naturally, only time will tell if Brown's addition keeps the Bills from retaking the AFC East.

Former Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) runs after the catch against Buffalo Bills cornerbacks Cam Lewis (39) and Christian Benford (47) during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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