Explaining Buffalo Bills' route to claiming AFC's No. 1 seed

All of the talk since the Buffalo Bills were overtaken by the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings has surrounded Buffalo’s chances of storming back to steal the division title.

But what about the AFC’s No. 1 seed?

It’s not impossible.

Dec 27, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) takes the hit from Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) after throwing a pass during the second half at SoFi Stadium. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

What it will take

With the Houston Texans’ win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday night, Houston punched its playoff ticket. At the same time, the Denver Broncos earned the AFC West crown and the Indianapolis Colts were eliminated from postseason contention. Additionally, it elevated the Bills to the No. 5 seed, keeping their hopes of finishing atop the conference standings alive.

If Buffalo is to pull off the improbable, it will need to win each of its final two games while also getting some help from other teams in the AFC. Along with two wins of their own over the final two weeks, the Bills would also need the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose one of their final two games, the Patriots to lose one of their last two and the Broncos to fall at the hands of the Chargers in a Week 18 matchup.

A Jaguars defeat would give them one more loss than the Bills, while a Patriots’ loss coupled with two Bills wins would give Buffalo its sixth straight East title. The Patriots are currently in the No. 2 spot in the AFC, while the Jags are No. 3.

Then, if Denver falls to Los Angeles in the final week of the year, Buffalo would leapfrog the Broncos to the top seed as the Bills would hold the tiebreaker due to them having the superior conference record.

MORE: Buffalo Bills will avoid two key Eagles players out with injuries in Week 17

Matt Milano, Drake Maye — Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Flies in the ointment

With that said, there are a few stumbling blocks when it comes to Buffalo’s pursuit of the No. 1 seed, most of which come down to matchups.

With the Chargers already having secured their playoff spot and no longer having a chance of winning the division, it’s possible they will rest their starters over the final two weeks of the year. Particularly starting quarterback Justin Herbert, who recently had surgery to repair a broken hand. Additionally, the Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the conference and will likely be pushing hard to secure their lofty postseason slot.

Elsewhere, the Jaguars and Patriots each have two cupcake contests to look forward to in Weeks 17 and 18. Jacksonville will take on the Philip Rivers-led Colts, who have nothing to play for, and lowly Tennessee Titans, while New England faces off with divisional cellar dwellers, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. The combined record of those four teams is 20-40.

So, it’s not likely that the Bills wind up earning a first-round bye. But stranger things have happened. The first step will be defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday’s Week 17 tilt. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. at Highmark Stadium. If the Bills lose to the Eagles, they would fall to the No. 7 seed in the AFC.

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